House Prices: 7 Years in Purgatory 10%+ Nominal Price Declines Now Seem Likely

It seems likely that house prices will decline around 25% in real terms over the next 5 to 7 years (more or less). This decline could be mostly due to inflation or include some nominal price declines. Here is a graph of how long it took prices to recover in real terms. (See: House Price Declines: How Long for Real Prices to Recover?)

The real return following the ‘79 peak was 6.5 years. It took 11 years for real prices to reach the previous peak following the peak in ‘89. And it took 14.5 years to return to the real peak reached during the housing bubble.

Hence the title to this post: House Prices: 7 Years in Purgatory (it could take shorter or longer, especially since the next Housing and Demographics: The Next Big Shift will likely start at the end of this decade).