# How Iran conflict can impact U.S. economy **URL:** \ **Category:** Macro Economic Trends and Risks\ **Created:** [March 5, 2026, 1:50pm UTC](https://discussion.fool.com/t/how-iran-conflict-can-impact-u-s-economy/123647 "2026-03-05T13:50:31Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![WendyBG](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/motleyfoolfree/user_avatar/discussion.fool.com/wendybg/32/67464_2.png) [@WendyBG](https://discussion.fool.com/u/WendyBG)\ **Post date:** [March 5, 2026, 1:50pm UTC](https://discussion.fool.com/t/how-iran-conflict-can-impact-u-s-economy/123647/1 "2026-03-05T13:50:32Z")
There is already a long METAR thread about how the Iran conflict can impact the U.S. economy. Others are contemplating this. [https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/05/business/economy/iran-oil-economy-consumers.html](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/05/business/economy/iran-oil-economy-consumers.html) # How War in the Persian Gulf Could Spill Into the U.S. Economy Rising energy prices, snarled supply chains and higher government debt could all hurt American consumers. By [Lydia DePillis](https://www.nytimes.com/by/lydia-depillis), The New York Times, March 5, 2026 Three kinds of events have historically pushed the United States into recessions: financial crises, oil price shocks and pandemics. The U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran have already brought about the second circumstance on that list and, if things go badly, potentially the first… In the days after the war began, [tankers stopped entering](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/03/03/business/iran-war-oil-gas-strait-of-hormuz.html) the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran controls and through which 20 percent of the world’s oil is channeled. About 200 ships are stranded in the Persian Gulf region, according to Lloyd’s List, and oil shipping rates have shot up. Saudi Arabia’s largest oil refinery and Qatar’s largest liquefied natural gas export facility shut down after drone attacks. Oil prices surged and are [up about 15 percent](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/03/business/energy-environment/oil-natural-gas-iran-israel-united-states.html) since the fighting started, at about $83 a barrel for the international crude benchmark… Inflation is expected to rise, [decreasing the likelihood](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/04/business/fed-hammack-inflation-interest-rates.html) that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in the coming months… Uncertainty about whether the war will widen and disruptions linger comes as U.S. consumer goods companies are buying raw materials, with an eye toward the Christmas shopping season… Investors sold off U.S. Treasury bonds after the attacks began, rather than flocking to them as they typically do in times of global instability… If investors lose confidence in a handful of technology companies’ ability to deliver on their promises, stock markets that have become heavily concentrated in their [stocks could take a hit](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/04/business/iran-stocks-natural-gas-oil.html)… [end quote] The bond market is larger than the stock market. As a bond buyer, I look at the maturity of the bond and try to predict inflation and the general level of bond yields years in advance. Federal [debt as a share of gross domestic product](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S) is already at historic highs and predicted to get much higher. Even TIPS that are protected from inflation will drop in value if interest rates rise later. Treasury yields are rising because investors are afraid that the Iran attack will turn into yet another expensive quagmire. This will increase the federal deficit even further. > **[CandleGlance | StockCharts.com](https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?$IRX,$UST2Y,$TNX,$UST30Y,$XOI,$NATGAS%7CB%7C0)** > > Quickly and easily view and analyze mini-charts of up to 12 different symbols simultaneously, all displayed side-by-side on a single page > **[Dynamic Yield Curve | StockCharts.com](https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/yieldcurve.php)** > > Visualize the relationship between interest rates and stocks over time using our draggable, interactive yield curve charting tool. > **[Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 30-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted...](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFII30)** > > Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 30-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis, Inflation-Indexed Wendy ---
**Author:** ![tjscott0](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/motleyfoolfree/user_avatar/discussion.fool.com/tjscott0/32/1083_2.png) [@tjscott0](https://discussion.fool.com/u/tjscott0)\ **Post date:** [March 5, 2026, 2:37pm UTC](https://discussion.fool.com/t/how-iran-conflict-can-impact-u-s-economy/123647/2 "2026-03-05T14:37:38Z")
20% of the world’s oil goes through the Strait of Hormuz which is narrow and horse shoe shaped.. NBC News: > **[MSN](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/shipping-slows-to-a-crawl-through-strait-of-hormuz-threatening-to-snarl-international-trade/ar-AA1XxKt4)** _Shipping slows to a crawl through Strait of Hormuz, threatening to snarl international trade_ _Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday had dropped [around 90%](https://x.com/nikospoth/status/2029198415775531199) compared with last week, according to ship tracker MarineTraffic, as oil and gas tankers cluster just outside of the strait._ > **[Strait of Hormuz Oil Bottleneck, Crude Jumps, Tanker Costs Soar 900 Percent](https://mishtalk.com/economics/strait-of-hormuz-oil-bottleneck-crude-jumps-tanker-costs-soar-900-percent/)** > > Trump says prices will come back down. OK when? The US may have US Navy ships escort the tankers. However: > **[US and Israel face 'game-changer' missiles acquired by Iran | The National](https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/mena/2026/02/28/us-iran-israel-missiles/)** > > Fresh challenge posed by handheld air-defence launchers and 'ship killer' cruise missiles _[Iran’s](https://www.thenationalnews.com/tags/tehran/) armoury of air defences is believed to have expanded to include “game-changer” anti-ship weapons from [Russia](https://www.thenationalnews.com/tags/russia/) and [China](https://www.thenationalnews.com/tags/china/)_ Not much room for ship maneuvering in the narrow horse shoe strait. Also the strait does not have much depth. Sinking a tanker or escort might plug the strait. Meanwhile: [https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/economy/indian-refiners-likely-to-pivot-back-to-russian-oil-amid-gulf-tensions-lpg-flows-face-greater-risks-13847080.html](https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/economy/indian-refiners-likely-to-pivot-back-to-russian-oil-amid-gulf-tensions-lpg-flows-face-greater-risks-13847080.html) _Indian refiners likely to pivot back to Russian oil amid Gulf tensions, LPG flows face greater risks_ There is money to be made during this crisis. > **[Strait of Hormuz - Geography - The Strauss Center](https://www.strausscenter.org/strait-of-hormuz-geography/)** > > Strait of Hormuz Assessing the threat to oil flows through the Strait Geography The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow channel, approximately 30 miles wide at the narrowest point, between the Omani Musandam Peninsula and Iran. It connects the Persian Gulf... ---
**Author:** ![captainccs](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/motleyfoolfree/user_avatar/discussion.fool.com/captainccs/32/3775_2.png) [@captainccs](https://discussion.fool.com/u/captainccs)\ **Post date:** [March 5, 2026, 5:00pm UTC](https://discussion.fool.com/t/how-iran-conflict-can-impact-u-s-economy/123647/3 "2026-03-05T17:00:34Z")
> [@tjscott0](#): > > 20% of the world’s oil goes through the Strait of Hormuz which is narrow and horse shoe shaped.. Why haven’t the Saudis built a pipeline from the oil fields to the Arabian sea to bypass the Strait of Hormuz? The Captain ---
**Author:** ![Goofyhoofy](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/motleyfoolfree/user_avatar/discussion.fool.com/goofyhoofy/32/4721_2.png) [@Goofyhoofy](https://discussion.fool.com/u/Goofyhoofy)\ **Post date:** [March 5, 2026, 5:08pm UTC](https://discussion.fool.com/t/how-iran-conflict-can-impact-u-s-economy/123647/4 "2026-03-05T17:08:32Z")
> [@captainccs](#): > > Why haven’t the Saudis built a pipeline from the oil fields to the Arabian sea to bypass the Strait of Hormuz? It’s a good question. There is a pipeline that does that, but it’s not Saudi owned and has limited capacity. Even if the US does provide support for going around Hormuz, 1) there’s not enough Navy, and 2) the insurance companies probably won’t accept that as sufficient, which means the ships won’t move for a while. This is the kind of thing that comes up during “discussions” as opposed to “shooting from the hip” where you sometimes shoot yourself in the hip. ---
**Author:** ![tjscott0](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/motleyfoolfree/user_avatar/discussion.fool.com/tjscott0/32/1083_2.png) [@tjscott0](https://discussion.fool.com/u/tjscott0)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2026, 12:38pm UTC](https://discussion.fool.com/t/how-iran-conflict-can-impact-u-s-economy/123647/5 "2026-03-06T12:38:43Z")
> **[China In Talks With Iran For Safe Passage Through Hormuz, As WH Scrambles To...](https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/massive-wave-iranian-missiles-pummeled-israel-overnight-trump-hopes-quick-victory)** > > House votes against war powers... rejected in a 219-212 vote along party lines. _To Contain Rising Energy Prices_ > **[China in talks with Iran to allow safe oil and gas passage through Hormuz,...](https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/china-talks-iran-allow-safe-200842019.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly9kdWNrZHVja2dvLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAJCdlEY5Q-win5eO7lF9u-5vd_ybvRzfgimS6w7zsj6FkVCPCAdpQHhBHtdEOcdlUoqpYKe2qbh-WrxZ17o4spZVOXf-7w0E-io-WRgI9IMUPRkVsmXxSBeGcFerFqWaVXHSyquqowuTZWLwB7LUK2Nu4X0OUrajYjUr4mpjKJ17)** > > By Jonathan Saul and Marwa Rashad LONDON, March 5 (Reuters) - China is in talks with Iran to allow crude oil and Qatari liquefied natural gas vessels safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz as the ---
**Author:** ![tjscott0](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/motleyfoolfree/user_avatar/discussion.fool.com/tjscott0/32/1083_2.png) [@tjscott0](https://discussion.fool.com/u/tjscott0)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2026, 1:42pm UTC](https://discussion.fool.com/t/how-iran-conflict-can-impact-u-s-economy/123647/6 "2026-03-06T13:42:56Z")
> **[Four Mideast Oil Producers Discuss Force Majeure to Withdraw from US Contracts](https://mishtalk.com/economics/four-mideast-oil-producers-discuss-force-majeure-to-withdraw-from-us-contracts/)** > > Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, and Qatar discuss canceling future investment commitments with the US. ---
**Author:** ![tjscott0](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/motleyfoolfree/user_avatar/discussion.fool.com/tjscott0/32/1083_2.png) [@tjscott0](https://discussion.fool.com/u/tjscott0)\ **Post date:** [March 6, 2026, 1:46pm UTC](https://discussion.fool.com/t/how-iran-conflict-can-impact-u-s-economy/123647/7 "2026-03-06T13:46:47Z")
> **[Gasoline Prices Jump 27 Cents in a Week. Trump Looks for Remedies](https://mishtalk.com/economics/gasoline-prices-jump-27-cents-in-a-week-trump-looks-for-remedies/)** > > The national average for a gallon of regular gasoline jumped nearly 27 cents since last week to $3.25.  Ha! I wish that was true in my neck of the woods. $2.65 to $3.19. ---
**Author:** ![tjscott0](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/motleyfoolfree/user_avatar/discussion.fool.com/tjscott0/32/1083_2.png) [@tjscott0](https://discussion.fool.com/u/tjscott0)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2026, 12:59am UTC](https://discussion.fool.com/t/how-iran-conflict-can-impact-u-s-economy/123647/8 "2026-03-09T00:59:51Z")
I hope everyone with airline travel planned has locked in their ticket pricing. > **[Cost of plane tickets likely to soar as Iran war brings huge fuel price surge...](https://nypost.com/2026/03/07/lifestyle/plane-ticket-prices-likely-to-soar-as-iran-war-brings-huge-fuel-price-surge-united-ceo-says-impact-will-probably-start-quick/)** > > Jet fuel, which accounts for about one-fifth of airlines’ operating expenses, surged a staggering 56% in the days following the initial Feb. 28 US and Israeli strikes on Iran. ---
**Author:** ![StalledOut](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/motleyfoolfree/user_avatar/discussion.fool.com/stalledout/32/49239_2.png) [@StalledOut](https://discussion.fool.com/u/StalledOut)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2026, 2:40am UTC](https://discussion.fool.com/t/how-iran-conflict-can-impact-u-s-economy/123647/9 "2026-03-09T02:40:37Z")
> [@WendyBG](#): > > Oil prices surged and are [up about 15 percent](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/03/business/energy-environment/oil-natural-gas-iran-israel-united-states.html) since the fighting started, at about $83 a barrel for the international crude benchmark… Google Finance is showing Crude Oil up 28% to $116. Oil prices are escalating rapidly. ---
**Author:** ![Watty](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/motleyfoolfree/user_avatar/discussion.fool.com/watty/32/2973_2.png) [@Watty](https://discussion.fool.com/u/Watty)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2026, 4:03am UTC](https://discussion.fool.com/t/how-iran-conflict-can-impact-u-s-economy/123647/10 "2026-03-09T04:03:05Z")
Pipelines are an easy target and several have already been hit. ---
**Author:** ![captainccs](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/motleyfoolfree/user_avatar/discussion.fool.com/captainccs/32/3775_2.png) [@captainccs](https://discussion.fool.com/u/captainccs)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2026, 8:32am UTC](https://discussion.fool.com/t/how-iran-conflict-can-impact-u-s-economy/123647/11 "2026-03-09T08:32:38Z")
> [@StalledOut](#): > > Google Finance is showing Crude Oil up 28% to $116. Oil prices are escalating rapidly. Gas at the pump in Portugal has not changed recently and is lower than back in Covid time. The Euro seems to be higher now so it’s not just oil but it could be the currency used to pay for it. The Captain ---
**Author:** ![Goofyhoofy](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/motleyfoolfree/user_avatar/discussion.fool.com/goofyhoofy/32/4721_2.png) [@Goofyhoofy](https://discussion.fool.com/u/Goofyhoofy)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2026, 11:41am UTC](https://discussion.fool.com/t/how-iran-conflict-can-impact-u-s-economy/123647/12 "2026-03-09T11:41:49Z")
> [@captainccs](#): > > at the pump in Portugal has not changed recently and is lower than back in Covid time. The Euro seems to be higher now so it’s not just oil but it could be the currency used to pay for it. I suspect your gas stations are working off old supplies. While some providers will jump the prices right away, others will wait for the prices to come down through their supply chain. It’s only been nine days, after all. ---
**Author:** ![Leap1](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/motleyfoolfree/user_avatar/discussion.fool.com/leap1/32/72176_2.png) [@Leap1](https://discussion.fool.com/u/Leap1)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2026, 12:00pm UTC](https://discussion.fool.com/t/how-iran-conflict-can-impact-u-s-economy/123647/13 "2026-03-09T12:00:18Z")
> [@captainccs](#): > > Why haven’t the Saudis built a pipeline from the oil fields to the Arabian sea to bypass the Strait of Hormuz? SA can go to the Red Sea with 5 m bbl/day. I just filled up this morning at Costco for $3.09 This is going to be far worse than I was anticipating. All the more reason to default. ---
**Author:** ![Kingran](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/motleyfoolfree/user_avatar/discussion.fool.com/kingran/32/2318_2.png) [@Kingran](https://discussion.fool.com/u/Kingran)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2026, 12:23pm UTC](https://discussion.fool.com/t/how-iran-conflict-can-impact-u-s-economy/123647/14 "2026-03-09T12:23:55Z")
> [@captainccs](#): > > Why haven’t the Saudis built a pipeline from the oil fields to the Arabian sea to bypass the Strait of Hormuz? This and the weekend Lindsey’s call for GCC to join the war, shows the same tone deaf-ness. Arab countries have trouble with Iran, but they have not signed up for this war. Israel-US didn’t consult them, and there is a deep anger in the arab world that Israel is dragging US and GCC into this war, which they are very clear, not going to get involved. Asking why you haven’t prepared for a contingency when that risk is something US creates, is pretty tone-deaf. What average Americans don’t understand is, the deep anger of the world towards America. People are pretty angry at US, more than Israel, because they see US enables Israel. Why because average people’s lives are drastically impacted by this war, and the raising Oil prices. The best we can do is, not question others choice, when our choices are so dumb. ---
**Author:** ![Leap1](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/motleyfoolfree/user_avatar/discussion.fool.com/leap1/32/72176_2.png) [@Leap1](https://discussion.fool.com/u/Leap1)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2026, 1:00pm UTC](https://discussion.fool.com/t/how-iran-conflict-can-impact-u-s-economy/123647/15 "2026-03-09T13:00:01Z")
The US does not want boots on the ground. Most of the Iranian public is with Israel/US, but a ground war would turn them against us. This is only about the regime’s leaders. The Arabs are very jealous of power between SA and Iran. This is more complex. ---
**Author:** ![Kingran](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/motleyfoolfree/user_avatar/discussion.fool.com/kingran/32/2318_2.png) [@Kingran](https://discussion.fool.com/u/Kingran)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2026, 2:03pm UTC](https://discussion.fool.com/t/how-iran-conflict-can-impact-u-s-economy/123647/16 "2026-03-09T14:03:45Z")
> [@Leap1](#): > > Most of the Iranian public is with Israel/US “They will welcome us as liberators” The west doesn’t learn.. the arrogance that people are waiting for Israel to come and liberate, even after what happened in Gaza, the western mindset is full of arrogance and hubris. ---
**Author:** ![flyerboys](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/motleyfoolfree/user_avatar/discussion.fool.com/flyerboys/32/2123_2.png) [@flyerboys](https://discussion.fool.com/u/flyerboys)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2026, 5:58pm UTC](https://discussion.fool.com/t/how-iran-conflict-can-impact-u-s-economy/123647/17 "2026-03-09T17:58:20Z")
> [@Kingran](#): > > the western mindset is full of arrogance and hubris. …and a huge constipatedly stuck “uck” of stolid self-glorifying and egotistical _stoopidness._ ---
**Author:** ![jaagu](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/motleyfoolfree/user_avatar/discussion.fool.com/jaagu/32/6160_2.png) [@jaagu](https://discussion.fool.com/u/jaagu)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2026, 6:59pm UTC](https://discussion.fool.com/t/how-iran-conflict-can-impact-u-s-economy/123647/18 "2026-03-09T18:59:40Z")
> [@WendyBG](#): > > Wendy Here is one area that will impact USA economy: > **[‘A very dangerous person’: alarm as Pete Hegseth revels in carnage of Iran war](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/mar/08/pete-hegseth-pentagon-trump-iran?CMP=headlineseurope_email)** > > Critics say brash, bombastic Fox News host out of his depth to guide US military through murky new Middle East conflict ---
**Author:** ![Leap1](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/motleyfoolfree/user_avatar/discussion.fool.com/leap1/32/72176_2.png) [@Leap1](https://discussion.fool.com/u/Leap1)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2026, 8:08pm UTC](https://discussion.fool.com/t/how-iran-conflict-can-impact-u-s-economy/123647/19 "2026-03-09T20:08:04Z")
Google query AI Iranian perspectives on the current conflict are deeply divided, ranging from intense hope for regime change to profound fear and anger over violence and instability. While many in the diaspora and some inside Iran see the war as a, “rescue mission” to overthrow the regime, others are terrified by the destruction, death, and potential for a long-term, ruinous war. [image]YouTube +3 Here is a detailed breakdown of the emotional, complex reactions: - **Hope for Regime Change:** A significant number of Iranians, both inside and outside the country, feel extreme animosity toward the Islamic Republic. For them, the strikes are viewed as a necessary, albeit painful, action to liberate the country, often described as a, “small light at the end of the tunnel”. - **Fear and Despair:** Many others are experiencing immense, “shock and anger,” describing the situation as, “truly terrifying”. There is significant concern about the destruction of infrastructure, civilian casualties, and the potential for a catastrophic, long-term war. - **A “Mixed” Reality:** Many Iranians occupy a middle ground, experiencing a conflict of emotions: they may dislike the regime but fear foreign intervention and war. A commonly expressed sentiment is, “We laugh and are happy when the regime is hit, but when children die and our infrastructure is destroyed, we worry about the future of our country”. - **Shifting Sentiments:** Early, “over the moon” excitement among some over strikes on leadership has, for some, faded into exhaustion and anxiety as the conflict continues, with some simply wishing for, “peace everywhere”. - **Regime Supporters:** There remains a segment of the population, particularly among conservative or rural groups, that supports the regime and opposes the war. [image]NBC Boston +6 My comment, the goodwill disappears if we put boots on the ground. Marines only shoot first and don’t ask questions. ---
**Author:** ![Leap1](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/motleyfoolfree/user_avatar/discussion.fool.com/leap1/32/72176_2.png) [@Leap1](https://discussion.fool.com/u/Leap1)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2026, 8:17pm UTC](https://discussion.fool.com/t/how-iran-conflict-can-impact-u-s-economy/123647/20 "2026-03-09T20:17:40Z")
> [@flyerboys](#): > > > [@Kingran](#): > > > > the western mindset is full of arrogance and hubris. > > …and a huge constipatedly stuck “uck” of stolid self-glorifying and egotistical _stoopidness._ So is the rest of the world. It would be interesting to read a denial of that. We are called human beings. We aren’t worth much. But we think we are. [Next page](https://discussion.fool.com/t/how-iran-conflict-can-impact-u-s-economy/123647.md?page=2)