And as Kotkin noted in the interview:
You remember when our strategic doctrine was to [have the ability to] fight two major wars in two major theatres simultaneously. Then Obama comes to office, and he reduces that to 1.5 major wars in major theatres. Have you ever seen half a major war? I haven’t.
Then Trump comes along, and he reduces it to one major war and one major theatre. So we have alliance commitments—obligations to allies—in at least three major theatres. Our strategic doctrine is we can do one at any one time.
So, our commitments exceed our present capabilities. If we are to focus on the Pacific, then Europe/NATO needs to pick up the slack in Europe.
Or we need to expand our military.
DB2