How will the attack on Iran impact the Macro economy and markets?

Again, there are so many problems with this that it’s hard to know where to begin. Let’s start with an easy one that any child can look up. The U.S., led by FDR, only declared war on Japan, and only did so after Japan attacked the U.S. Germany foolishly honored their alliance with Japan and declared war on the U.S. a few days later, thus making FDR’s decision how to enter the European war simple. The question of what would have happened if Hitler had not is an interesting counterfactual among diplomatic and military historians. We will never know.

How would I have known what? That a 2nd Great Depression that hasn’t happened would happen and what I should do about an event that hasn’t happened? That Israel’s leadership would see an opportunity to cripple an enemy and finally get the U.S. to help touch off a regional war of choice? We all know that Iran is a menace. What’s your point? Just because Iran is a menace doesn’t automatically mean that two nations need to start a regional war, particularly when they have no idea how to get Iran to stop aside from bombing.

I’m in agreement with nuclear non-proliferation- for everyone, Iran included. But if Donald is opposed to nuclear proliferation, he’s not doing a very good job. He walked away from a carefully negotiated multi-lateral agreement with Iran that was doing exactly what it was supposed to do. American unreliability even has long-time allies considering building their own arsenal. That will not end well.

Also, binary thinking is quite real. Practitioners tend to view issues in opposite and mutually exclusive ways. Something is the greatest!! No, it’s the worst!!! Remind you of anyone?

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That is not what I said. It was not a comparison of war efforts.

We liberals are honkered down on doing nothing. No tax hikes which the country badly needs. No social programs if the opposition does not like them. A single criticism and leaders go running for the hills.

Now anything trump does is worthy of shooting down. Great. I agree. But when will there be any meaningful policies out of our side? Just sitting there in congress holding hands in disbelief is not enough.

We need a massive tax hike on the wealthy and corporations. Crickets from our guys.

We need socialized medicine which some 70% of Americans support. The crickets are getting louder.

We need a major regulatory overhaul to stop environmental collapse…this is evil…“Well, perhaps we will”…the crickets in chorus.

We need action yet the poll is showing a binary do nothing result.

I honestly do not know which country you are referring to. If it is the U.S., there have been plenty of tax hikes in the past. Even Donald loves them, but he calls them “tariffs” and makes the consumers pay while he and his class make out like bandits. There are many social programs in the U.S., if of varying effectiveness and scope.

You won’t get any disagreement from me about the need for substantial reforms. We may even agree on a few of them. But the underlying reason why the U.S. doesn’t have them is that the voting public hasn’t elected the necessary legislators and executive to achieve them. Instead, the public has been distracted and seduced by all sorts of other matters, most of which are exaggerated or of- in my opinion- lesser importance than ecological collapse or fiscal bankruptcy. But the U.S. system is built on the consent of the governed. There are nations that are not concerned with such niceties, but I don’t think you’d like them very much. Authoritarians don’t have much concern for environmental matters.

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The answer to you question may depend upon who runs out of munitions first: Patriot Missiles Fired in Iran War, Stressing Strained Stockpile - Business Insider

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I’m pretty sure that Poland hasn’t been conducting a genocide in Gaza under the leadership of a guy with an arrest warrant for War Crimes. US taxpayers are paying a big penalty for our support of this criminal activity.

intercst

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Maybe a while, maybe not. Are we gonna keep dropping bombs until every possible successor is killed? Oh, and the triumvirate has chosen a leader.

Khamenei's son Mojtaba named Iran's new Supreme Leader

Former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is alive following an assassination attempt, informed sources told Iran International on Tuesday.

The sources said Ahmadinejad was not harmed and had been moved to a safe place.

You don’t seem to understand. HE doesn’t seem to understand. You don’t get regime change by dropping a bomb - or kidnapping a leader - and then leaving. The regime in Venezuela is exactly the same as it was, same military, same politicals, same structure, same everything even though we have Maduro in some prison somewhere. The people in Venezuela don’t have a say here, the regime is still in charge.

So it is - and will be - in Iran, unless we go in with boots on the ground and rip every one of those in power out and enforce some kind of turnover (and I think we all remember how well that went in Iraq, don’t we?) It’s simple. Soldiers have guns (tanks, infrastructure, ammunition, communications, drones, money, power). People do not unless they are fed by some outside force, which I suspect we are not willing to do. I would be surprised if the other Arab states want a civil war on their doorstep either, even considering how much they dislike the regime in Iran.

Oh, and there’s this:

Pentagon officials told Congress in a private briefing that US intelligence found no proof Iran was planning to attack American forces first.

The statement has raised new questions about why the US launched major military strikes under President Donald Trump.

Wag the dog? Netanyahu has an election later this year. This will play very well for him at home. We’re helping.

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You are correct that that sort of approach is not appropriate. There is something to be said for punitive expeditions with operations that are short and forceful. Make the point about “don’t do X”. If X is attempted again, rinse and repeat.

DB2

Iran strategy.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/03/world/europe/iran-war-strategy-trump-israel.html?unlocked_article_code=1.QVA.WfzY._x48fNlmlxae&smid=url-share
Iran’s Strategy: Expand the War, Increase the Cost, Outlast Trump

The Islamic Republic is aiming to draw out the conflict and broaden the fighting. That would force President Trump to risk more casualties and more political capital.

The Islamic Republic of Iran’s first priority is to survive. To do that, its leaders will want to drive up the cost of the war for President Trump — in terms of American casualties, energy costs and inflation — to try to persuade him to declare victory and go home.
Iranians certainly understand our leader.

Caine said Iranian drones also pose a threat but did not provide a figure for the number that had been shot down, only saying that “our systems have proven effective in countering these platforms, engaging targets rapidly.”

Just three days into the conflict, the Iran war has become attritional. Waves of drone attacks by the Islamic Republic are putting pressure on the defenses of the U.S. and its partners from Bahrain to the United Arab Emirates, depleting weapons stockpiles. The outcome of the fight may depend on which side runs out of munitions first.
$4 million to destroy $20k weapon. Seems a bit lop sided.

And we cannot count on Iranians citizens to rise up.
So:

Meanwhile the president is angry at Spain.

[The president](Donald Trump - Latest news, updates, pictures & policy | Express.co.uk) has threatened to cease all US trade with Spain as he launched into a furious rant at European leaders, including Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer. “We’re going to cut off all trade with Spain. We don’t want anything to do with Spain,” the US president said.

This came after Spain refused to let the US military use its bases for missions linked to strikes on Iran.

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There are zealots on both sides. I just spent the day having to listen to a lot of TFG zealotry, justifying every dum-dum thing the dude says and does. Political zealots are no better than the religious variety.

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The vz government was kept on purpose

Someone else does, too, right? Just checking.

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You see the 88 Mullahs counting the vote for the next supreme leader? Israel blew them up earlier today.

Indecisive?

They’ve already counted. Khamenei’s son won the vote. Perhaps you need Gaza-style carpet bombing to hit the target?

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/03/world/middleeast/iran-mojtaba-khamenei-successor.html

intercst

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Decisiveness is overrated. Wars are not won by people who are decisive alone. Ask Putin.

Decisiveness doesn’t necessarily make you a winner. Ask Lindsey Vonn.

Dummies who decisively punch themselves in the ding dong, still end up with with a bruised and battered ding dong.

When our Commander in Chief calls those who bravely serve their country suckers and losers…decisiveness is not a good thing. He considers them expendable meat. Let’s circle back to Putin…

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Are TFGs local or aliens?

The Captain

It is hard to keep up. There haven’t been any sightings of Mojtaba, which may be good for his health.

And about that new leader selection (from a couple of hours ago)…

Timing of Selection of Iran’s New Leader Is in Flux, State Media Says
https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/iran-us-israel-conflict-2026/card/timing-of-selection-of-iran-s-new-leader-is-in-flux-state-media-says-Kn4CmPD2LzWV4ndEdFVC
Iran’s Shia clerics don’t have an exact timeline for the selection of the Islamic Republic’s new supreme leader, according to a member of the body of religious experts that will make the appointment, who was quoted by Iranian state news agency IRNA.

Seyed Mojtaba Hosseini said the Assembly of Experts would convene “as soon as possible” and announce its final decision, but the cleric added that the matter requires “an examination of overall conditions and further consultations.”

The new leader will be announced at the earliest opportunity, said another member of the assembly, Seyyed Ahmad Khatami, who added that no problem had arisen regarding the leadership, according to government-linked news agency ISNA.

DB2

I dunno, they seem alien to me.

Here’s a synopsis of a recent conversation - After listening to a long explanation about 4D chess and an incessant rambling about the best president in the history of the universe, I thought I’d be curious…

Me: “How do you feel about all the corruption surrounding TFG? You know, the plane, the crypto, the billions of dollars?”

TFG Zealot: “What about Pelosi and her husband? How do people who make $200,000 end up to be millionaires?”

Me: “Yeah, that’s a problem. They should pass legislation making insider trading and corruption illegal for anyone elected to office.”

TFG Zealot: “Everybody does it, it’s a problem with everyone. What about AOC? She’s worth almost $30 million!”

Me: “She’s not, but if we made it illegal for elected officials, it will prevent her from abusing her position.”

TFG Zealot: “Yeah, everybody does it. Corruption, it’s what elected officials crave!”

I may have added that last part, but you get the point. It’s pointless to debate a zealot.

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