Howard Mark says AI Frenzy is not a bubble... Not yet!

They claim to hedge against currency risk.

$Trillions in cash is rusting. The HOF of market timers is empty.

S&P will be much higher in 5, 10, 15 years as humanity progresses. Investing is simple but most people overthink it.

Buffett sold WFC around $30. Today WFC is $84.

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A 50% gain over 7 years is only 6% per year. Which means you can be pretty conservative with your investments.

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ha… CAGR! Give me some ideas of your conservative options

Beats me. I gave up trying to time the market. Since retirement, I stay about 30% money market funds and 70% S&P500 index. Plus a handful of highly appreciated stocks in taxable accounts that I haven’t sold due to the tax liability. Don’t need to get richer, happy to keep on, keeping on.

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SPY has 35% of Mag 7, and by a study as much as 50% of the market cap will be impacted by AI. Actually to avoid AI, you have to construct a portfolio by careful stock selection.

Separately, when your investment grade fixed income provides less than 5% across duration, you need equity exposure to meet your return goals.

When the markets go down, there are not many places you can hide and still make 6%. If you are looking at making 6% CAGR over the cycle, then it becomes important that you make gains during the bull cycle… :slight_smile:

I didn’t say I targeted a 6% return. That was bjurasz. I was just fixing your math.

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