Howard Marks

The Illusion of Knowledge:

“I’ve been expressing my disregard for forecasts for almost as long as I’ve been writing my memos, starting with The Value of Predictions, or Where’d All This Rain Come From in February 1993. Over the years since then, I’ve explained at length why I’m not interested in forecasts – a few of my favorite quotes echoing my disdain head the sections below – but I’ve never devoted a memo to explaining why making helpful macro forecasts is so difficult. So here it is.”

https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/the-illusion-of…

13 Likes

It is a well written article.

The statements in bold in the article summarize it well.

I just finished Marks’ book: Mastering The Market Cycle. It is very clearly written and among the best books on investing I’ve read.

1 Like