"The time for you to get scared about MDB is if I see it keep climbing, and decide to get back in to catch the wave.
How do I find out when you decide to get back in to catch the wave?
There are some cases where the stock price shoots up so fast it must come down but with a company that’s growing the most important part of their business at 400% y/y (300% under 605?) that’s the wrong way to bet.
BTW, if you are in the 20% tax bracket the price must drop by more than 20% to be worth getting back in.
I was holding Mongo in my regular IRA, so the tax situation is different. Every penny I take out is taxable as ordinary income, the same as if it was from a paycheck. I didn’t witdraw the proceeds from selling Mongo, so I can put off the tax man for now.
I will be sure to shout it from the rooftops when I decide to buy Mongo again.
If Mongo goes down this week by a few bucks below where I sold it, I might be tempted, since I’m not sure it was a good idea to sell. I held on to Alteryx after a double, and even bought some more recently.
what is it that convinced you to buy it back?
Hi tj, it was the earnings report. It’s true that you can never tell about the future, but I’ll hold now until I actually see some evidence that it is being hurt by Amazon, not just news releases about new products from amazon. However Mongo will probably be a 6% position, not a 15% position.
I’ll hold now until I actually see some evidence that it is being hurt by Amazon…
There is a common misconception that Goliath always wins. Amazon simply cannot be better at everything than everybody else. Amazon’s game is to get customers to use AWS and they certainly will get some with a second tier MondoDB lookalike. But Amazon’s entry is no bigger threat to MongoDB than all the other databases out there. Part of the long tail of wannabes. Amazon’s real threat was using the up-to-date version of MongoDB to which management quickly reacted by changing the licensing. This new license is causing waves in the copyLeft movement but if copyLeft can’t defend producers from freeloaders (like copyright, trademarks, patents, and commercial secrets have done for a couple of centuries), it’s copyLeft that’s going to go out the window. CopyLeft is a nice idea while everyone plays nice but once freeloaders come on the scene, it’s The Tragedy of the Commons.
not sure what trigger such a response. What hand out are you talking about? Who is following who?
C’mon? is that an argument? C’mon.
Amazon will not be a good customer to MongodB. Amazon can provide what Mongo does, and I think many customers can get what they need through Amazon without needing Mongo. Many potential customers also can get the open source stuff and do it themselves. I am not saying Mongo does not have customers. It does and the numbers definitely show that. Mongo may have a good product. But I don’t think that this business will sustain itself only on the merit of its product. It is a thing in a value chain, and the value may not strongly flow towards it.
I can see why some are bullish but that is one side of the coin.
Understood. I guess your way of investing is starkly different than mine. I have had MDB since the spring of last year and I really intend to hold it for the long term. When the ‘Amazon threat’ news came out I held and I have continued to hold. Of course none of my positions are as large as yours and I have more stocks in my portfolio than you do. That in part is the reason why I can hold-and-see while you have to be more ‘pro-active’. The Amazon threat idea was not exactly new to me but you have to see how does that situation evolves and actually starts to have an impact. This and the ‘open source’ thing were part of the risk when I decided to get in there.
“On trading in and out: No one knows how long a stock price can keep climbing. If you sell now at $135 it could keep going up to $200 before it takes a rest. When it was up $15 from where you sold, would you buy back in or just watch it go? And if you timed it right and sold now, and it dropped $15 would you get back in, or would you wait for down $20? And then if it got to down $19 and started back up, would you panic at down $12 and buy back in? And then, what if it goes down $10 from there? Do you buy, sell or hold? In other words, trying to time the market in these stocks will drive you crazy. If you don’t have a good reason to sell just stay with it and enjoy the ride.”
I agree with all the points that were made, but to me, this one resonates loudest. Unless someone has a “special feel” for the market and “knows” exactly what a stock will do in each given situation, then how can there possibly be a system in place that will consistently provide the framework to achieve 20-200% gains in a year? To me, I see no better course of action than just holding through the times of high valuation (within reason - bubbles excluded), instead of timing and re-timing the market for when to sell, then when to re-buy and re-sell and re-re-buy.