3/31/25 -
The major markets gapped down at the open, the staged strong upside reversals. Volume was higher than Friday. The S&P had a blue Day 1 rally and the Naz a pink day 1 rally starting off new attempted rallies.
Tariff day is Wednesday, which is too soon for a rally to count as an FTD, though if we had a 2.5% rally on huge volume, you know Webby will say “FTD in spirit” and he will be buying. Webby tells a story of Bill walking around on a huge follow through day and asking why no one was buying, the portfolio managers said it was not day 4 yet per his rules, and Bill responded something like “are you crazy, can’t you see this is an FTD? Buy something.” Strong rules, but not completely inflexible.
Wednesday is ADP payroll data and Friday is jobs report from the U.S. Labor Department — both covering the month of March.
I recall Webby saying something like: Remember, first few days of a rally attempt might look good only because of short selling, that’s one reason we wait for day 4.
IBD:
The early stages of a market rally attempt can be accompanied by heightened volatility, which makes it critical to size your positions carefully, says St. Clair. You have to have enough of the stock that it makes a difference if you get it right, but not too much that you can’t handle it correctly.