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NewEchota,

What surprises me in this whole affair is the amount of conviction you have in your decision. For me, successful investing has always been contingent on weighing ones chances correctly. When I look at the BOFI situation I see a couple of options:

  1. There is a legit claim in the class action suit and it will be very costly, if not ruinous for the bank
  2. The shorts have gone way beyond their usual (quick and cheap) business of setting a “sell” status or publishing a scathing “analysis”, and actually compiled a 100 page claim full of serious allegations, filed it to a court of law and lined up almost a dozen witnesses ready to perjure themselves
  3. Other possibilities like that the claim is legit but will not have bad consequences or is false but will still ruin the company etc. (an exhaustive list is not the point here)

When I read your posts, it seems you don’t even pause to consider anything else then the option 2). The only argument that I could find in your posts so far was that the reporting on the case is full of inconclusive language using words like “allegedly” or “claims”. To me this is a very weak argument as it’s the standard for articles reporting on trials. See http://www.nytimes.com/2006/01/18/business/worldbusiness/18i… for example.

So where does your utter conviction come from? Are there other recent cases of the shorts doing such an extensive, risky and expensive actions just to bring the stock down that are similar to the BOFI case? Is there something else I’ve overlooked?

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