Your question about how one might have traded SPXS recently is exactly what I’ve been struggling with. The answer depends on what one’s purposes and opportunities are. If he/she has a day job and can’t (or doesn’t want) to be in front of a computer screen and doesn’t want to use stops or profit targets, then how he/she would trade anything --not just SPXS-- is going to differ from someone who uses stops and differ yet again from someone who monitors positions intraday and makes adjustments accordingly.
Let’s call those three differing personal circumstances: Model A, Model B, Model C.
Model A. Each evening, after market close, he/she reviews two sets of charts: one set for open positions and another for the tradables they are tracking. If HA Smoothie (HAS) says to close or to open a position, enter a market order to be executed at next day’s open. Wash. Rinse. Repeat. This is as simple and as basic as it gets. I haven’t yet done the needed backtesting to prove the system would be profitable, on average and over the long haul across all market conditions and all security types, but that’s my expectation. This investing/trading stuff ain’t rocket science, and a daily 10-15 minutes should be all that’s needed once the system is understood and practiced.
Model B. Same evening review as before. Same amount of time. But this time, also identify support and resistance levels, decide where to place a stop, and then write and submit the appropriate orders. Wash. Rinse. Repeat. There’s no need to backtest this system to prove robustness or profitabliity, because it’s the same system Ed Seykota advocates and uses himself.
Model C: Same evening review as before. Same setting of stops. But this time, positions will be monitored intraday day and pulled if they offer windfal profits.
Thus, Models A, B and C use the exact same chart template and (mostly) the same interpretation rules to make entry/exit decisions. Here’s the chart template (done with a 1-month lookback for clarity).
Feb 7. Dots turn from ‘red’ to ‘green’, but TSI is negative. DO NOTHING.
Feb 8. A seond green dot appeared and TSI turned positve. BUY TOMORROW.
Feb 9. The position is put on at market open at a price close to 17.48.
Feb 10. The evening review confirms that the market confirmed that the entry was correct. (I.e., there’s another green dot. TSI becomes more postive.) DO NOTHING.
Feb 13. The evening review sees another green dot, but notes that TSI is rolling over. DO NOTHING.
Feb 14. The dots have turned to red, and TSI has declined futher. Were it me, I’d say. GET OUT TOMORROW.
Feb 15. The order got filled close to 18.02. The net-gain would be close to 3.09% or 51 basis points per day, which is killer money even when it is discounted by the likely 3/4th of the time one would be standing aside.
I could grind through how Model A would trade SPXS for the rest of the month and how Models B and C would trade SPXS over the same days. But there’s no need to, because it’s pretty obvious, and it’s something that anyone who wants to use the HA Smoothie system is going to have to do for themseves, for a lot of stocks, over a lot of market conditions, so that one understands what to do, no matter what happens.
I will say this, though. What’s likely to make or break one’s account isn’t one’s entry/exit rules but one’s policy for sizing position, just as Van Tharp has demonstrated.