In case we get the wrong idea

Investment Analysis Clubs Saul’s Investing Discussions
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Just because our stocks have been doing rather super it’s easy to get the idea that the whole market is up wildly. However, don’t be fooled. Today, for instance, when my portfolio, and probably yours, was up something like 1.20%


The Dow Jones was -0.27%
The Nasdaq was    +0.07%
The Russell 2000  -0.14%
The IJS           -0.15%
The S&P           -0.08%

The five of them average to  -0.11%

That’s why we do stock picking, and help each other to evaluate, and why we are up as much as we are. We are in a very special subset of the market that we’ve carefully picked out of the 10,000 or so publicly traded stocks. (I just made up that number of publicly traded stocks).

Someone was talking about how great the last four days have been for his portfolio. In the last four days my portfolio is up an incredible 7.06%. In those four days, the S&P was up all of 0.04%.

Why does that matter? I’d guess that it makes the average investor (invested in all the 10,000 or so stocks that we are not invested in) less euphoric, and it makes the market, as a whole, much less liable to take a major tumble. Note: “less liable” doesn’t mean it can’t happen Friday or next Monday.

Best, and a happy Thanksgiving to all of you.

Saul

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PS - I mis-wrote that last number. In the last four days the S&P was up 0.4%, not 0.04% (which doesn’t change anything in the argument of my post).

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Happy Thanksgiving to you, Saul!

So very thankful for all Ive learned from you over the last few years.

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Happy Thanksgiving everybody:)

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Happy Thanksgiving everybody:)

And to you too!
I’m indebted to those who contribute to this forum. It has truly been a great experience since I’ve stumbled upon it.

Take care,
A.J.

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First, thank you Saul. This is the only Fool board I read all the way through.

Second, my first post to this board: https://corpgov.law.harvard.edu/2017/05/18/looking-behind-th…

Some data on the number of companies on the US exchanges, and change in same over time. I’ve got nothing new to add on investment ideas, just context. There are not 10,000 companies we can choose to invest in on US exchanges, just less than half that. And the choices are decreasing.

Carpe Diem.
-Kip

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There are not 10,000 companies we can choose to invest in on US exchanges, just less than half that. And the choices are decreasing.

The first time I checked, about 20 years ago, there were 8,000. Now there are fewer with more foreign listings. But one only needs a dozen or so in the portfolio and maybe 50 for the wish list.

Denny Schlesinger

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Reminds me of the so called super stocks. See my post #29767

Best to all and thanks for the wonderful information and discussions

Andy

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Reminds me of the so called super stocks. See my post #29767

Andy

Yes, but not to be confused with the “Nifty Fifty.” The Nifty Fifty were the super stocks of the day but they had a grave failing, everybody knew it and agreed. That caused them to become wildly overpriced destroying their investment value for late comers to the game. As Ken Fisher puts it, “your advantage is what you know that others don’t know” or words to the effect. If Saul ever becomes wildly popular outside Fooldom his advantage will shrink. For best effect wish lists should be kept private.

Denny Schlesinger

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Denny,

Yes indeed. We here have an advantage

Andy

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I once saw someone comment that the Nifty Fifty beat the market… if you held on to them for 30 or 40 years. That’s some confidence!

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