Fiscal policy is shifting. Rates are rising. Inflation on the horizon.
You know do really pathetic things and there will be inflation.
The market has such expectations.
I guess the hangover has begun…and it won’t end.
Expect a drop in equities. I am very tired of the winning already.
Open mouth insert feet knee-deep repeatedly and I guess in 2025 the markets will have zero confidence.
When a dictator or strongman controls the central bank the currency begins a run for zero value. Inflation rapidly rises.
He knows all. Sure. Just ask him.
We keep hoping the yield curve will un-invert one of these days. Rising 10-yr helps the long end. Feds pushing down short term rates is a plus but they have a ways to go yet.
Didn’t it un-invert a few weeks ago? Did it re-invert since then?
Every body seems to watch the 2-yr/10-yr difference. That is un-inverted but if you look at the full curve, the short end is still inverted.
11/08/2024 4.70 4.69 4.63 4.53 4.42 4.32 4.26 4.18 4.20 4.25 4.30 4.58 4.47
I was not born but in the 1950s the S&Ls guaranteed 5% on your savings. The treasury yields on a 30 year bond were something like 2%. It actually worked during this part of the cycle until inflation kicked in later in the cycle.
I was a kid in the 1980s when the financial press discussed a major inflection in the yield curve to a new reality as we entered supply side economics.
The rules of inverted yield curves MIGHT apply much more to a different part of the cycle.
Indeed inverted yield curve is often cited as a recession indicator. To me indicates the feds are pushing up short term rates. That often leads to recession.
Maybe not this time. But wags continue to worry about it and large deficit does not help.
The smart money is in long term borrowing at lower rates.
Mind you smarter people do not borrow.
I have zero debt.