Hi Saul.
I do still hold INFN and would consider buying more at these prices. Perhaps your “expectations and hopes” have turned to ashes; mine have not. I just think their gratification will be delayed and I’m willing to wait. You are not. That’s OK with me.
Saul, I watch what you’re doing and I try to learn from you, but I have zero intention of investing the way you do. It wouldn’t work for me because my strengths and temperament are different than yours. The best I can do is figure out the parts of what you do that would fit my strengths and temperament and then evaluate whether that part of what you do adds value to what I do.
“…explosive growth around the corner…” They are having success in DCI, but that market is currently less than one-tenth the size of long-haul, but growing MUCH faster. Their Metro prospects are certainly unproven, and I don’t think I’m counting too much on that.
“…just exploding into little pieces…” That’s beautiful imagery, Saul, but it is an exaggeration. I think you know that.
“…down 20% this quarter … down 33% next quarter … they just have to guess at a number of quarters …” You’re completely right, Saul, but I’m thinking years in the future, not quarters.
“… hope and a prayer …” You’re partially right, but I also think that it is my faith in a management team that seems to have very good vision for where the industry is going, and the technical chops to deliver a differentiated product that (most of the time) is technically superior to alternatives. They were leap-frogged recently, but they’re on the cusp of delivering a new generation of product.
I did lighten my family’s position a bit to create a tax loss. I’m looking to refill that position now that prices have declined. I absolutely do recognize that they’re going through a rough spell at present that is likely to be multi-quarter. I’m OK with that.
Saul, one of the aspects that sets you apart from others is that you’re very nimble. If you see Infinera returning to glory, you’ll get back in. I am not nearly so nimble. Buy and hold with a long time horizon works better for me. If I tried your style, I’d botch it up because it doesn’t play to my strengths.
I would never ask you to convert to my style because my style wouldn’t play to your strengths and heavens knows you’ve found a style that does work for you. Better than my style works for me, no doubt.
“… If so, for God’s sake, Why? … Why would anyone hang on? …” Because it makes sense for someone whose strengths, temperament, and style are different than yours, Saul. I feel as if these questions you are asking me are saying, “Every instinct in my (Saul’s) body says that holding Infinera is the wrong thing to do. Yet you persist. Are you crazy?” No, I’m not crazy. I’m not stupid. I AM wired differently than you and I DO have different strengths and temperament. It is OK with me for you not to emulate me. Is it OK with you for me not to emulate you?
From your “month end” post, you indicate it is a difficult, frustrating time to invest. For my style too, Saul, for my style too. Best of luck to both of us.
Thanks and best wishes,
TMFDatabaseBob (long: INFN)
Peace on Earth