Interesting TWLO article

I thought this was pretty balanced: http://amigobulls.com/articles/why-you-shouldnt-buy-twilio-i…

Basic points:

  1. Twilio is more expensive than its competitors
  2. However, the partnerships it is building are hugely beneficial to it (AMZN, Uber, etc)
  3. It could have further to fall, so maybe wait for a catalyst, like a hedge fund to signal a buy.
  4. It’s hard to make much from analyst opinions on companies growing like this.

Basically, there’s a lot going on with TWLO. If you’re enough of a fan to buy their stock, you might at least consider buying in thirds – maybe over the next few months.

I’m content on the sidelines for now.

Bear

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also, if anyone’s keeping score, Tinker is out:

http://discussion.fool.com/uaa-shop-twlo-32539199.aspx

Bear

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I don’t understand Tinker’s reasoning. He said in talking about TWLO’s secondary:

share price hits $70 and yet is priced at $40 for the insiders. Just does not sound right.

But if they sold out at what was $30 below what was the market price at the time, they didn’t rip anybody off. They sold out cheap.

Tinker also said nothing had changed in his positive evaluation, he was just looking for something less exciting and volatile. My half-humorous take would be, if someone as positive and committed to TWLO as Tinker has sold out, who’s left to sell. Must be the bottom.

:wink:

Saul

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I don’t disagree, been there before myself. As I stated, I can be too much of a worry wart sometimes. From risk/reward I prefer UA at this time so I made the trade out.

But to more fully explain the secondary issue, I am copying my response to Duma:

<<<<<<And Tinker to be clear, this was a secondary BEFORE the lockuop period that did NOT give the company more war chest fro R&D, acquisitions, etc…if was PURELY for the insiders.

IMO, that was the middle finger to the common shareholder and an indication for how management feels about anyone outside their inner circle.>>>

Duma, in the end, the Twilio decision was based on this nagging issue. Given the dearth of clear information on Twilio, that I can usually dig up on a company I get excited about, I had to call into question my enthusiasm given this “middle finger”, which is pretty much what it was. Again, not as bad as what XONE did, but it stuck with me, even as I explained it away. But you know, we don’t know as much as them. And sure, these insiders want to get out and move on, that is their business, to cash out. I understand that.

What made the difference is two things (1) how quickly they set up this secondary - even before the lock up expired, and (2) how low they priced the shares. Share price was actually at $60 when this $40 secondary was announced. On this board I yelled SELL!

Of course the share price fell, and I bought back in. But this never left the back of my mind, this “middle finger”, because it was so unusual to price a secondary not just so quickly, but so far below the actual share price. You see it sometimes with biotech, but I’ve never seen it elsewhere.

Thus, one can infer the shares were overpriced from those that know these things at $70, $60, and $50, and perhaps $40, given the momentum the shares had at the time, and thus creating a price premium opportunity. Brought my analysis into question.

The negative price momentum clinched it for me after I started looking at UA at its current price.

I’ve gone against analyst opinions many times, but I simply don’t have enough information to be confident to go against where these outsiders were putting their money, and yes, giving us the middle finger.>>>

In the end, I lost confidence, particularly given alternatives to invest in at present, because of what the secondary was (as explained above), and because I have not been able to obtain enough information to gain sufficient confidence to stay with the downward volatility.

Yes, I could to find anything to change the following: <<<What I have stated about the company is what I can confidently piece together. Dominant market leader, UBER switched to them from cheaper competitors because TWLO simply works better, in house development is not a threat, Amazon uses them exclusively or nearly so, utterly disruptive, excellent management, moving higher in the value chain with voice, and then video, etc. Will continue to gain more customers because it has more customers. There is a concern of in app push reducing demand for SMS pus, thus reducing demand for SMS services, but this is just talk a t present and probably overblown as well.>>>

It is my degree of confidence, given the downward momentum, the secondary, and that I have not been able to dig up the usual amount information on the company.

Here is to TWLO having an enormous upside in 2017! And UA as well!

Tinker

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