Investment discussions

Investment Analysis Clubs Saul’s Investing Discussions
#33

longterm

In my opinion, the best thing you could do Saul, is to post your moves moving forward- current portfolio, allocation, and trades. You keep impeccable records; hopefully this would be easy.

I’m not willing to do that because I have a responsibility to myself and my family to get the best results possible. What I’ve been doing works for me. If I started posting each trade, I’d feel I had to justify it (to the readers and myself), which I often can’t do. I’d be second guessing myself all the time and it would mess up what I do.

On the other hand, I do post where I am every month or six weeks. You have my positions at the beginning of 2014. And here’s a repost from the TSLA board of where I was in mid November, for comparison.

Saul

Several people on this thread have expressed an interest in following what I have in my portfolio, so here is a current list as of Nov 15 in size order, with a verbal description of the size for extra color (“very large”, for instance, means a very large position for my average position size).

CELG (MF RB) very large
ELLI (MF RB) very large
UBNT ------- very large
MTZ (MF RB) large
SYNA ------- large
AMBA (MF RB) large
BOFI (MF RB) large
INVN (MF RB) large
SODA (MF RB) large
WAB (MF SA) large
GTLS (MF RB) large
YHOO (MF RB) large
PSIX --------large
SCTY (MF RB) large
CSGP (MF RB) below average
INBK ------- below average
AFOP ------- below average
TMUS ------- below average
WETF (MF SA) below average
SZYM ------- below average
LNKD (MF RB) below average
PRLB (MF RB) small
AMAVF ------ small
QCOR ------- very small
TSLA (MF RB, SA) tiny position
SSYS (MF RB) tiny position

I wrote last time that “I sold out of TSLA at $165-$167. I still love the company.” Since then it went up to $194 or so and back down to $135, which tempted me to take the tiny position you see.

I also wrote last time that “I’ve been reducing my stake in SCTY for two reasons. I don’t see their moat. In other words what’s stopping anyone else from adopting the same business model? Also the utility companies are starting to fight back hard against solar power and it’s not clear how that will go.” Since then I have felt more secure due to the Rule Breaker recommendation and the last earnings report, and have rebuilt my position.

You’ll notice that I’ve reduced my positions in very high PE stocks. Even PRLB, LNKD, AMAVF and SSYS, and I sold out of Z. Most of them don’t seemed fazed by my decision at all, and have kept moving up in spite of it.

SZYM is an exception to my policy of not buying money losing startups.

Below is a list of my stocks from Oct 1st, a month and a half ago. You’ll see that almost all the names are the same. I’m not a short term trader.

As of Friday’s close, my entire portfolio is up 38.7% so it’s on track for my goal of averaging 30% to 35% per year (but who knows how the last six weeks will turn out).

Remember that my biggest positions doesn’t mean the stocks I’m buying now. The very big positions were bought normal size and grew to be big positions.

PLEASE don’t buy anything on my list without researching it yourself and making sure it’s a stock you want. Some of them (especially some of the non-MF stocks), I’m not sure of at all. And I may not stay in all the stocks I have now. Again, please decide for yourself.

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#34

Saul,

I’m delighted to have found this board.

Would you comment on CSGP? I was surprised to see it on your portfolio. I bought CSGP in 2007 and it has lost 70% of its value. I’m getting ready to sell it, but haven’t found much recent info on MF. (I’m an SA member, but not RB).

I’d love to hear what you like about this company. Thanks.

#35

akym,

CSGP lost 70% since 2007???

Yahoo shows it around $50 to $60 in 2007 and $182 today.

What am I not seeing here?

Gene

#36

Hello Saul, would like your thoughts on the new American Airlines. The airline sector was red hot in 2013. Do you like this space for 2014?

…my broker once made me a million dollars in airline stocks…

…I gave him 2 million… :slight_smile:

3 Likes
#37

Hi Saul, I’ve really learned a lot from all your great posts and it did help me to reallocate my portfolio effectively in 2013. I had a very good year, not as good as yours, but good compared to my history. I’m really glad you created this board. I’m sure we can all continue to learn from one another.

Thanks for all these great posts and discussions on your approach.

All the best for a great 2014. Brian

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#38

akym,

I also looked up historical prices for CSGP in 2007 and found then in the $40 to $58 range. As it’s now $180, and near its all-time high, maybe you are thinking of a different symbol.

Saul

#39

About the CSGP error – I originally purchased LoopNet (LOOP) in 2007, which merged with CSGP in 2012.

After some digging today I learned that my LOOP stocks were transferred to CSGP at a conversion ration of .03702! That means, if I understand right, I received shares of CSGP at a cost basis of $594 each, when they were worth $49 on the open market.

What the hell? I know this is off-topic of your discussion, Saul, but I’m wondering if anyone can explain this to me. It’s the reason my cost-basis on Fidelity website (displayed as CSGP on my portfolio), looked like it was down so dramatically, from $594/share to $181. Realize this is an indication to me to follow my smaller holdings more carefully. But seriously, is it typical to lose so badly in this kind of merger? How could I have avoided this slip?

#40

I don’t know what it means myself, but I bet that if you asked the question on the CoStar board, someone could answer it for you.

Saul

#41

akym,

Here is the info:

WASHINGTON and SAN FRANCISCO, April 27, 2011 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) – CoStar Group, Inc. (Nasdaq:CSGP), the leading commercial real estate information company announced today the signing of a definitive agreement to acquire LoopNet, Inc. (Nasdaq:LOOP), the leading online commercial real estate marketplace. Pursuant to the merger agreement, LoopNet shareholders will receive $16.50 in cash and 0.03702 shares of CoStar Group common stock for each share of LoopNet common stock, representing a total equity value of approximately $860 million and an enterprise value of $762 million. The boards of directors of both companies have unanimously approved the transaction which is expected to close by the end of 2011.

The bolding is mine.

You should have received a pile of cash.

This is why a person needs to keep track of their investments.

Gene

4 Likes
#42

Gene,
Thanks much for the info. I had actually read that piece of news a few months ago when I first looked into this, but I didn’t understand the way they had split the merge out between $16.50 in cash per share, plus the conversion ratio. Now I do. You’ve helped me answer something I was scratching my head over for some time.

And yes to the keeping track, it’s my aim from here on out.

akym

#43

Hi Saul,

First, let me echo the thanks that quite a few before me have already stated, really appreciate your starting this board! I’m another of those who have benefited from your posts, and enjoy reading and learning from you, and appreciate having one place to easily find your thoughts on investing!

I have a question about how you scan for new investments. I know you posted your criteria for new investments in post 6, which included growing revenue, recurring revenue, growth potential, rapidly growing revenue, etc. These are the criteria companies must meet for you to invest monies with them. But what I’m wondering is, where do you scan for stocks that might meet these criteria. Are their particular magazines, newspapers, investment writers, websites, that you frequent that often highlight companies that peak your interest to investigate further to see if they do meet your criteria? In other words, I’m curious to know where you prospect for these companies?

Thanks,(and thanks once more for the new board!)
okapimoon

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#44

Saul, add me to the “thankful you started this discussion list” I missed it. (Since you were a physician - I got a strep infection around a plate a screws used to repair my tibia, so I lost a month fighting that)
I have appreciated you thoughts, and really appreciate your willingness to share your thoughts. I love the discussions on TMF, especially RB, where dissent is at least tolerated and sometimes embraced. It amuses me too that the Rule Breakers is where we find more mature investors.
I love hearing your thoughts and methods and I gotta say I am happy for the names. PSIX - what a find.
While others are pushing you for names, I hope that you will spend more time on how you find the names that begin to research. You have talked about metric and qualities you look for, but I am talking further back. Are your screening on metrics for your prospect list? Are you looking at new or relatively new issues? We all admire your success and hope to provide for our families the way that you have provided for your family. I have learned (and earned) a lot from your specifics, but I am mystified how you find the gems like PSIX in the first place.

1 Like
#45

I don’t know how I missed okapimoon’s post but yes where do you begin.

#46

Flygal,

I broke the head of my tibia also skiing about 6 years ago, and also have a metal plate and 7 screws in my leg. Luckily, no infection or problems with it. It took several months before I was back to normal though. Now I’d have to stop and think which leg it was. While walking and biking I’m totally unaware of it, but I can’t run on it very well without it hurting (so I don’t).

I’d suggest you go back and read through the whole board. It probably would just take 30-45 minutes as it’s still pretty short. A lot of your questions are already answered. Specifically I answered the question “Where do you prospect for picks?” at length on post 120 on this board

http://discussion.fool.com/where-do-i-prospect-for-companies-310…

I don’t use any formal screens. I use intuition, which is sometimes quite wrong, but what counts is being right more than you are wrong.

Glad you found the board, and thanks for the appreciations. Tell your friends. :wink:

Saul

1 Like
#47

I wish my injury was so simple. The lateral head of the tibia was obliterated, and the lateral collateral ligament was snapped, along with the postolateral corner. That was in 2010, hit by a Saint Bernard, remember Joe Theisman? It was sort of like that

With the help of the ortho department at UCSF and lots of physical therapy, I walk, but not far or for long. Next step remove the hardware, heal, replace the ligaments, heal, and probably total knee. I wanted a partial but they have convinced me that while the break is healed, it is not good bone stock…

But I know I am so lucky to live in a place and time where these things can be done!

I did go back and read, good stuff!

#48

Saul,

How many of these r u still in?

AMBA (MF RB) very large, passed CELG on the last day of the year
CELG (MF RB) very large

UBNT ------- large
SYNA ------- large
INVN (MF RB) large
MTZ (MF RB) large
ELLI (MF RB) large
BOFI (MF RB) large
SODA (MF RB) large
WAB (MF SA) large
YHOO (MF RB) large

GTLS (MF RB) average
SCTY (MF RB) average
TMUS ------- average
CSGP (MF RB) average
WETF (MF SA) average
SZYM ------- average
PSIX --------average

TSLA (MF RB, SA) below average
AFOP ------- below average
LNKD (MF RB) below average
INBK ------- below average
AMAVF ------ below average

NGVC ------- very small
DPZ ------- very small

#49

Saul, How many of these r u still in?

Rizzz, you’re way out of date. I published my current positions about a week ago here:

http://discussion.fool.com/my-almost-end-of-month-positions-3122…

Saul

#50

I’m a little bit familiar with Saul’s method of investing. In very simple terms Saul’s strategy looks to me like market timing.

Constantly looking to exit and enter positions based on stock prices is market timing. Can it be done? Sure, Saul is the living example. Can I do it? I can not. Very early in my investing career I learned that the best way for my portfolio to reach zero is constantly exiting and entering positions. Once I realized that I started with HG about 12/13 years ago with buy and hold strategy.

From 2005 to 2013 my returns were 23%/year (did not get time to complete my 2014 analysis) with buy/hold strategy.

IMO very few people are talented enough to work with Saul’s strategy. But there is very valuable information to be gained from Saul’s method/experience.

-DU

1 Like
#51

Ooops I meant to post the above post in HG Philosophy board. Sorry for the confusion.

-DU

#52

DU,

I can assure you in the strongest terms that Saul does not try to time the market and definitely does not exit and enter positions based on market timing.

You are so right that no one can time the market or can even tell us what the market will do tomorrow. It is fools game.

Read his past posts which you can access in indexed form to see how he has been successful. It is not terribly difficult to understand and has been very profitable for me.

Jim

1 Like