IOS9 ad blockers bad news for CRTO

Here are my initial thoughts:

  • First, this only affects mobile Safari. Apps aren’t impacted, and I suspect a lot of mobile ads are served through apps. For example, CRTO has a relationship with Facebook, and I have to think that the vast majority of mobile users are using the Facebook app and not the web browser. So those are unaffected.

  • As others have said, a lot of people won’t bother. Ad blockers have been around forever on the desktop, and most people don’t bother (I don’t).

  • I’m sure CRTO has a lot of experience dealing with ad blockers on the desktop, and my guess is that many of those strategies will also work for mobile (or at least give them a good head start on mobile). So this could actually be a boon for them, as it could make ad campaigns more complicated to execute efficiently and thereby push advertisers to use the expertise of services like CRTO rather than trying to go it alone.

  • Ultimately, we probably won’t know for a couple years what the actual impact will be. It’ll probably be a year before see initial impact (if any), and then probably another year before we see (1) how effectively CRTO has dealt with it, and (2) how advertisers react to the new challenges.

Neil
Long CRTO

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One more followup: if this does begin to have a real impact, I strongly suspect we’ll see websites force mobile users to use their apps so that they can continue to serve ads (since apps are unaffected). At the end of the day, these sites need to support themselves somehow, and ads are what pay the bills for many of them. A lot of them already want you to use their apps anyway, so this would just be the final straw for a lot more.

Neil
Long CRTO

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Here are some quick numbers for Google (not CRTO, they are harder to come by for my quick calculation) for rough comparison. These are 2014 numbers in millions except percentage, 2015 is expected to be ~11% higher.


Total Ad Revenue                59624
Mobile Search Revenue           11800
iOS Search Revenue               8900 (part of mobile search rev)
iOS Safari Search Rev            4400 (part of iOS search rev)
iOS Safari Default Search Rev    2200 (part of iOS Safari search rev)

So iOS Safari Default search revenue is about 3.7% of Mobile search revenue. IF 20% users blocking search ads may result in a roughly 0.7-0.8% Mobile Ad Revenue reduction.

Cautions: Take these numbers with a pinch of salt, these are the result of a quick scan. Criteo’s business model is likely different from Google, and is possibly more heavily influenced

==
Sources:

http://marketingland.com/report-google-had-12-billion-in-mob…

https://investor.google.com/financial/tables.html

==

I have lightened up on CRTO and am watching closely.

-vanGobi

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Update from an email from their IR folks (with some paraphrasing):

The company believes, along with Apple, that user privacy is important and also that advertising is an important part of the mobile ecosystem. They fully expect to continue to provide a solution for their clients that complies with Apple policy, allows consumers to control their ad preferences while supporting an important economic backbone of the Internet.

Other points from the email

  • Apple historically has found ways to support advertising while protecting user privacy (3rd party cookies, IDFA, iAD).
  • Ad blocking tools have been supported on the desktop Safari for years, so this isn’t really very new.
  • These tools are also already available on Android.
  • Most likely developed to limit scripts and aggressive ad formats (e.g. Background scripts that go straight to app store, etc, pop-ups, pre-roll videos, slide-ins,…) which Criteo doesn’t do
  • Will still require an “app” to be installed that enables this feature.

I am back in my full position, plus a small position in my trading account.

-vanGobi.

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Good info. Hope at least some of you captured the quick 3% gain from 44.50/45.00 to now (47.25). The day-traders are clearly buying in the last half-hour.

In a few weeks when CRTO is approaching $60 we’ll wonder what all the noise was about. :slight_smile:

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Nice analysis Neil

One more followup: if this does begin to have a real impact, I strongly suspect we’ll see websites force mobile users to use their apps so that they can continue to serve ads (since apps are unaffected). At the end of the day, these sites need to support themselves somehow, and ads are what pay the bills for many of them. A lot of them already want you to use their apps anyway, so this would just be the final straw for a lot more.

So what’s to stop AAPL, or someone else, from developing an app, or something else, that prevents ads from popping up in an app? E.g., what if this catalyst today then leads to an app that blocks ads in the Facebook app, or the BuzzFeed app, or SportsCenter app, etc?

Seems to me that’s the likely next step, assuming it can be done.

Also, I really have to disagree with the sentiment here that people will just “not use” the Safari ad-blocking app.

1 - Apple has an amazing ability to get ppl to use their stuff. If they want to push for ad-blocking, folks on iPhones will use ad-blocking.

2 - Ad-blocking is already popular! For example, The most downloaded extension for desktop Safari is called AdBlock. Ad-blocking usage grew 70% YoY from June 2013-2014. The data just doesn’t seem to show that ad blocking features is not already popular, welcomed by consumers, etc.

Would love to hear more. It’s encouraging that the shares “recovered” somewhat from a 14% drop to settle at about a 7% drop, but nonetheless fundamentally this news to me is quite troubling for CRTO.

Dom
Long CRTO

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I just want to thank everyone for their fantastic analysis and research of this of the during the day. I was too busy to do any in depth research during the day and you guys really came through. Job well done.

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Dom,

So what’s to stop AAPL, or someone else, from developing an app, or something else, that prevents ads from popping up in an app? E.g., what if this catalyst today then leads to an app that blocks ads in the Facebook app, or the BuzzFeed app, or SportsCenter app, etc?

I’ll put my developer hat on and my knowledge of iOS application space. By design, apps running on your phone in iOS cannot be blocked by other apps. Each app runs in its own sandbox and is protected and cannot be interfered it. They are also limited to what they can do as well - it is a two way street. Some features of the phone are denied access, for example and may not be turned on. The only way around that I know of to get around it is to jailbreak your phone, and the people who actually jailbreak are a tiny fraction of the population.

I wouldn’t worry about an app blocker app, at least for now. It would take a significant change to the iOS platform and associated frameworks and would be itself a completely different model and a huge departure from the protections put in place from the beginning.

Best,
–Kevin

14 Likes

Hi Dom,

Apple has an amazing ability to get ppl to use their stuff. If they want to push for ad-blocking, folks on iPhones will use ad-blocking

This isn’t an Apple thing. Apple has simply made it possible for 3rd-party developers to do. Before it was impossible. But Apple is not, itself, making or pushing any kind of ad blocking software.

So what’s to stop AAPL, or someone else, from developing an app, or something else, that prevents ads from popping up in an app?

That’s not how app development works on iOS: apps can’t interfere with other apps, and it would be a disaster if they tried. If Apple wanted to go that route formally, they’d just declare that apps cannot show ads and then call it a day (and reject any apps that do show ads since all apps must be approved by Apple). But they’re not going to do it – there would be a revolt, and my guess is that it’d probably also attract attention from anti-trust authorities.

Ad-blocking is already popular!

Maybe. It’s not really clear to me if it is or not. But again, if it does begin to cause real problems, I think websites that depend on advertising to support themselves will just force users to switch to their apps instead (where will they continue to run ads). Also, keep in mind that CRTO is already very successful in the current environment – so if ad blocking is already very popular, then they’ve clearly figured out a way to run successful campaigns despite it. As I said, this could actually be a boon for CRTO if advertisers think it’s too hard or risky to run campaigns on their own.

nonetheless fundamentally this news to me is quite troubling for CRTO.

My gut feeling is that the impact to CRTO will be very minor, but you might be right. I don’t think we’ll really know for a couple of years.

All of this is just my personal opinion, of course.

Neil
Long CRTO

9 Likes

So what’s to stop AAPL, or someone else, from developing an app, or something else, that prevents ads from popping up in an app? E.g., what if this catalyst today then leads to an app that blocks ads in the Facebook app, or the BuzzFeed app, or SportsCenter app, etc?

There are so many businesses out there on the internet that provide free content or services in exchange of ad displaying. If ad gets completely blocked then this business model will become dead. Facebook or Google will either disappear or will charge a fee for service.

Before internet, people payed for newspapers or magazines. People watch TV but also have to tolerate ad. Or they pay for Netflix to avoid ad.

If Apple blocks all ad, who is going to provide the content that Apple users consume on iPhone or iPad? Without the rich content that is either free or inexpensive, who needs an iPhone or iPad?

Advertising is not going to go away, but the format may evolve.

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Fast-growing but often “misunderstood” digital ad services provider Criteo (NASDAQ:CRTO) says that it will see its total addressable market reach $20 billion by 2018 as it expands further in Asia, rolls out new ad offerings and picks up new segments including travel and real estate, according to an industry report.
After a recent analyst day presentation where Criteo detailed its expansion plans, Pacific Crest Securities analyst Evan Wilson said in a research note Wednesday that the company’s story “seems plausible” and added, “Clearly, there continues to be a big growth opportunity ahead.”

Read More At Investor’s Business Daily: http://news.investors.com/technology/061015-756636-criteo-ou…

I still haven’t figured out exactly what Criteo does , specifically how they do it, specifically how they do it , and what is their edge ,but this page from their web site is helpful.

http://www.criteo.com/what-we-do/technology/

We believe the era of unmeasurable and unproven marketing is over. Unlike the majority of the market, we only use a transparent cost-per-click model, and we use post-click sales attribution as the measure of effectiveness. Across all of our advertising products, ROI is transparent, easy-to-measure and directly linked to revenue.
Because we only charge for clicks, not impressions, our attention is focused squarely on the things that are most important to the advertiser – namely conversion and sales.
What’s more, we do this at a global scale,

Advertisers are only charged when customers click on the ad

,http://www.criteo.com/why-criteo/

it’s hard to argue that post click sales are what counts.Maybe this is what makes them unique.

both Google and Facebook have these capabilities. The reason they allow third parties such as Bidable, Adroll and Criteo access it is that there is more demand to be had from all players rather then closing it off. From a customer perspective, advertisers want to do retargeting across more then just Google or Facebook controlled inventory…

from a comment at
http://www.quora.com/Why-doesnt-Facebook-or-Google-make-thei…

“One of the top priorities at the CMO level now is understanding how people switch from one device to another,” said Rudelle. “Our cross-device system can be used across any publisher in a very robust and privacy-centric way and we feel we’ll be among only a handful of players in the world who can make this happen because of our scale at the publisher level and we’ll continue to push a lot on mobile and more in-app.”

It’s a tall order for Criteo, whose cross-channel rivals include Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Apple and Facebook. But Criteo says its purchase of Tedemis, a French email-marketing platform, prepared it further by matching mobile devices to email log-ins.
Retail remains a very email-centric medium, said Criteo President and COO Eric Eichmann. “We’ve found that browsing and purchasing data is still most relevant because it comes back to shopping intent data,” he said.

http://adexchanger.com/ad-exchange-news/inside-criteo-examin…

I must admit the world of advertising puzzles me. I see car ads all the time but am only going to buy a car once every X number of years, When I do I go straight to consumers Report and look at reliability. If the car brand isn’t reliable you could expose me to all the ads in the world , I am not going to consider it.
The company making the last car I bought doesn’t advertise at all, at least not any advertising it pays for. No doubt it works better for impulse purchases, though every year I tend to buy more generics.

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People watch TV but also have to tolerate ad. Or they pay for Netflix to avoid ad.

While this may be true:

I watch at least 2 Netflix cds per week and each cd has approximately 10 minutes of “trailers” from other movies. Can’t comment on streaming content as I live in boonies and internet too sloooooow.

Also, I remember my parents buying a “HUGE” satelite dish the size of an RV that was in the front yard. The user could pick several satelites and point the dish to each which meant FREE tv and I believe most with no ads.
Now we have Dish and Directv with most of the 400 plus channels litered with ads. So point being revenue flow via capitalism is going to prevail.

Mark

Long CRTO

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In a worst case scenario, this is Apple against the entire mobile publisher and advertiser ecosystem; not Criteo itself. If browsers start negatively impacting publishers’ abilities to monetize their mobile content, it may trigger a backlash where certain sites are “not optimized for use with Safari.”

It’s easy for Tim Cook to rail against the ad biz. That’s not where Apple’s bread is buttered. But if Cook pushes his campaign too far, these guys are saying, it could come back to bite him.

http://fortune.com/2015/06/11/apple-ad-blocker-criteo/

I dislike ads which is why I use Netflix. But ads are ubiquitous, you can’t get past them on a DVD, they are even there when you go to a movie. Many “free” sites depend on ads . So they are necessary evil, especially for consumers who would find it tough to afford many things without ads paying most of the cost. Thus blocking ads may actually be a move against the poor. Since voluntary tools are already there for blocking ads isn’t that a Big Brother kind of move? I love my Apple devices , use Safari , and own some AAPL but I am not happy about this move.

True not many people use Safari, most of those that do use it don’t use ad blockers, it doesn’t apply to apps, and it will take a long time to implement.
. But perceptions are everything in the stock market and it does’t take much to turn that around,.

mauser96: True not many people use Safari…

You may want to re-think your definition of “not many” because Apple’s Safari browser accounted for over half of US mobile and tablet internet usage in March according to independent website analytics provider, StatCounter.

http://gs.statcounter.com/press/safari-over-half-us-mobile-a…

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but not on computers where I do most of my searching. Safari has under 4% share
http://www.w3schools.com/browsers/browsers_stats.asp

https://www.netmarketshare.com/browser-market-share.aspx?qpr…
this saying Safari is down to less than 40% on mobile

your link is US only

overall ?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Usage_share_of_web_browsers
less than 14%
How many use Safari worldwide ?
Not Many

But I am one of the ones who do.
14%% , 39% ,whatever, I doubt if ad blocking will make much impact.

http://www.quora.com/What-is-the-percentage-of-Internet-user…

Linux users have a staggering 29.04% blocking rate, compared with 12.95% for Mac users, and 9.25% for Windows users.
• Mobile blocking is gaining popularity: Android shows a 2.24% blocking rate, and iOS 1.33%
ad blockers are in the minority at this time

I had no idea Chrome was so popular And even on mobile Safari is steadily losing share to Chrome

I think I will give Chrome a try.

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I dislike ads which is why I use Netflix. But ads are ubiquitous, you can’t get past them on a DVD, they are even there when you go to a movie.
Great. Which means the final frontier is embedded product placement content within the movie/published material itself. Expect ever more oral and visual product placements like Macallan, Gordon’s, Omega, Ford etc in the next Bond film for starters.
How tedious.
Ant

mauser96: but not on computers where I do most of my searching…

Laptop screens and desktop monitors have a lot of real estate. While banner, skyscraper and other ads are not especially invasive on bigger screens, they’re annoying on a small screen. The perceived threat to CRTO is in the iPhone and iPad user market, not within the traditional computer marketplace.

mauser96: …this saying Safari is down to less than 40% on mobile…

Potential ad blocking on about 40% (and other sources report up to 50%) of mobile browsers is what’s causing concern among investors. The concern may be overblown or ad blocking may never materialize but my point is this: some posters here have written that since they don’t use an ad blocker on their own home computers, what’s the big deal? The big deal is ad blockers on mobile devices, first because Apple Safari is on a considerable percentage of mobile browsers; and second, because a younger (and more desirable) target market is more likely to browse with a mobile device than with a traditional computer.

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There is a type of advertising that intentionally is annoying, remembering a brand or product may be all that is needed
But most advertisers will realize that for addition be effective they need to attract attention without annoying the viewer.

I don’t take somebody’s guess about" potential " too seriously . It’s the future, they don’t know. I take today’s numbers more seriously since they ate closer to factual.
In any case the only reason I care one way or another is whether it is likely to hurt CRTO revenue and earnings over the next 12 to 18 months. The “market” doesn’t think much further ahead than that

My guess is NO . Even if it turns out to be YES the stock price drop has probably more than adjusted for it. I don’t understand Criteo well enough to have a lot of conviction in holding, but news like this isn’t enough to be a sell trigger for me.
The news probably was a catalyst for early holders to take profits. There seems to be no good headline news to balance it out. We will have to wait for earnings. Hopefully they will be good… Meanwhile it looks as if those who sold quickly might have been smarter. Whether that will be the case in a year is unknown.

I wonder if a" younger more desirable " market exists because young people are more into fads and more easily manipulated. Because I know my buying power is a lot more now than it was when I was 20 years old.

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Happy Fooliversary, mauser! 16 years!

Neil

Thanks… I didn’t even notice the balloons

Motley Fool boards are the best I have found.

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