Iran War-a Lot of Moving Parts

Investment Analysis Clubs Macro Economic Trends and Risks
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Something or someone has to give.

https://www.wsj.com/opinion/donald-trump-tariffs-25-percent-mexico-canada-trade-economy-84476fb2
The Dumbest Trade War in History

Trump will impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico for no good reason.

President Trump will fire his first tariff salvo on Saturday against those notorious American adversaries . . . Mexico and Canada. They’ll get hit with a 25% border tax, while China, a real adversary, will endure 10%. This reminds us of the old Bernard Lewis joke that it’s risky to be America’s enemy but it can be fatal to be its friend.

Take the U.S. auto industry, which is really a North American industry because supply chains in the three countries are highly integrated. In 2024 Canada supplied almost 13% of U.S. imports of auto parts and Mexico nearly 42%. Industry experts say a vehicle made on the continent goes back and forth across borders a half dozen times or more, as companies source components and add value in the most cost-effective ways.

Tariffs will also cause mayhem in the cross-border trade in farm goods. In fiscal 2024, Mexican food exports made up about 23% of total U.S. agricultural imports while Canada supplied some 20%. Many top U.S. growers have moved to Mexico because limits on legal immigration have made it hard to find workers in the U.S. Mexico now supplies 90% of avocados sold in the U.S. Is Mr. Trump now an avocado nationalist?

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/08/25/china-threatens-trump-with-retaliation-over-iran-sanctions/
Beijing has threatened to retaliate if China is hit by Donald Trump’s new Iran sanctions, raising fears of a fresh trade war between the two superpowers.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/08/25/china-new-hypersonic-missile-puts-america-on-notice/
China’s new hypersonic missile puts US on notice

Warhead capable of avoiding interception and hitting aerial targets thousands of miles away

Beijing has developed a new manoeuvrable type of air-to-air warhead capable of avoiding interception and hitting aerial targets thousands of miles away.

For now, China is the only known country with this joint technology.

So the East & South China Seas are no longer an American lake.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2026/08/25/farmers-say-they-face-new-crisis-trumps-tariffs-iran-war-raise-costs/

Squeezed by tariffs and Iran war, farmers say they face a new crisis

The president’s policies are driving up prices for fertilizer, fuel and machinery. Meanwhile, a campaign to deliver emergency farm aid has stalled on Capitol Hill.

So increased food inflation is on the way.

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Destroying our world standing for the profit of the few?

It couldn’t have been better planned by an adversarial foreign power.

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The tab for this war is filtering in.

Iranian missile and drone attacks have caused “unprecedented damage” to US intelligence facilities and surveillance equipment across the Middle East, NBC News reported Tuesday.

Citing four people with knowledge of the matter, the report said the attacks damaged buildings and intelligence-gathering equipment used by the CIA and other US spy agencies.

18 service members have died and 757 have been wounded since the US launched the war against Iran on February 28.

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According to a source speaking with Saudi state media, Washington sent Tehran a message offering to lift the blockade and sanctions against Iran if the Islamic Republic reopens the Strait of Hormuz.

What the US no longer has an interest in Iran’s nuclear endeavors?

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Yeah, it’s clear we’ll settle for less, much less than we had before. But luckily we’re trying to give nuclear permissions to Saudi Arabia, so it’s all good.

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