Is LIDAR worth it?

[mostlylong]

@mostlylong

@dividends20

FSD is real, I use it every day

What percent of your driving miles are autonomous?

And?

Tell us about your FSD?

[Leap1]

@dividends20

Tesla makes 35k cars every week all of which has the FSD hardware inbuilt. Waymo has total of 2000 cars which have been fitted with Waymo hardware with ongoing expansions and manufacturing to support growth toward 3,500 by late 2026.

So you’re going with an F 150 by that set of logic.

[dividends20]

Tesla market cap has gone from $50B to $1.53T in 6 years.

In last 5 years, Tesla made EV, Superchargers, Energy a reality with $100B in TTM revenue.

In next 5 years, Tesla will make FSD / Autonomy, Cybercabs and Optimus a reality.

[mostlylong]

@mostlylong

@mostlylong

@dividends20

FSD is real, I use it every day

What percent of your driving miles are autonomous?

And?

I couldn’t wait any longer for an answer so I found one elsewhere.

I experienced it myself where I was having to intervene every couple miles with v11 at the beginning of the year, and by the end of the year with v13 I was going well over a thousand miles between interventions that were necessary to prevent an accident.

So if you drive 10k miles per year, and 1-2k between interventions to prevent accidents, then only 5-10 accidents per year.

Nothing a little self-insurance can’t handle.

[Hawkwin]

@mostlylong

So if you drive 10k miles per year, and 1-2k between interventions to prevent accidents, then only 5-10 accidents per year.

I heard a great interview of a Tesla engineer speaking about the “nines.” I could not find a transcript of the interview but this link contains a great summary:

https://electrek.co/2025/10/24/former-tesla-self-driving-leaders-different-story-than-elon-musk/#:~:text=There’s%20been%20a%20running%20gag%20at%20Tesla%20about%20engineers%20finding%20out%20that&text=nines%20or%20two%20nines.%20I%20don’t%20know%2C%20but%20like%20multiple%20nines%20of

I think basically what takes the long amount of time and the way to think about it is that it’s a march of nines and every single nine is a constant amount of work, so every single nine is the same amount of work, so when you get a demo and something works 90% of the time, that’s just the first nine, and then you need the second nine, and third nine, fourth nine, fifth nine, and while I was at Tesla for five years or so, i think we went through maybe three nines or two nines. I don’t know, but like multiple nines of iteration, there’s still more nines to go, and so that’s why these things take so long […]”

[dividends20]

Happy that so many of you are so intesterested and infatuated in Elon and Tesla.

[captainccs]

@Hawkwin

I heard a great interview of a Tesla engineer speaking about the “nines.” I could not find a transcript of the interview but this link contains a great summary:

A very good explanation indeed! What is missing is whether this rate is with or without edge case simulation. The first two nines catch most driving experience while the problems are the expensive edge cases.

The Captain