Is self-driving oversold?

While it is possible, I don’t think that’ll happen because while the amount of energy needed to move a vehicle on the surface is relatively high, the amount of energy needed to overcome gravity AND move the vehicle through the air is substantially higher. In the end, cost overcomes nearly everything. So there may someday be flying private, or semi-private vehicles, but they will still be quite expensive and relegated only to members of the upper few percent of wealth/income.