Is tracking Saul in xls a burden to Saul?

Investment Analysis Clubs Saul’s Investing Discussions
#27

Few things folks:

  1. Let us get this straight. This is a public board despite the name of the board. If some folks want to create exclusive settings, there are mailing lists that can be created to discuss things in a private and closed environment.

  2. The exchange between me and Saul on tracking has been quick and easy and yet a few members are portraying it as if Saul is being tortured in hell by a demon who kidnapped him and his pain radiating voicelessly in the cyberspace.

  3. Imprecise tracking is better than none and it works very well in case of Saul than most others for the following reasons: no new money coming in, 100% vesting meaning for every new purchase something must be sold, handful of stocks that he holds for 0.5-3 years so not a whole lot of trading, no options and only a little margin. For most of us life is more complicated that this and the fact that he does so well with this simple life is worth studying properly. Once a month approximate update is good enough. In fact, even if Saul does not do that based on what he shares on the boards - approx position size, stocks purchased and sold and occasional analysis of his portfolio - one can still create a reasonable picture. By him providing that occasional update, it becomes easier on me (I am grateful for that) and also makes things a little more precise.

  4. Why am I tracking Saul? Well, Saul appears to make the case - deliberately or unconsciously - that one can use his methods to get the kind of returns that no one in the history of equity investing has achieved. Not Buffet. Not Klarman. Not Lynch. But the absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. So I assume that Saul did it. Now I want to do it too and I am sure so do many others. I want to track his method going forward and not looking backward, so that people like me can learn something cool. This is where even an approximate tracking would be useful. If Saul sold a stock wouldn’t you like knowing it in a few weeks or even a few months instead of waiting for a whole year? Similarly for the purchase. Saul believes in medium term investing so this information can still be used. The tracking sheet just provides that. Secondly, the approximate positions size helps determine how much risk to take. This information will be very useful to all. Let us not try to be like Church that keep exhorting the scientists to not look beyond Big Bang where the almightly has been supposedly enjoying a private bath. In this case, the almighty is inviting us for a swimming lesson. Let us sign up.

Anurag

26 Likes
#28

One of the things that the defenders of Saul seem to have missed is that Saul doesn’t need defending … he has said he is going to keep doing what he has always done and if it amuses Anurag to do something with those numbers that is up to him. Now, several people have pointed out that it is unlikely that any such attempt will track Saul very well and I’m sure that is true … merely the difference between buying something active at the beginning or the end of the month can make quite a bit of difference. But, I don’t the point is to replicate Saul’s portfolio precisely, but rather to have a model Saulish portfolio and see how it does.

It seemed presumptuous and intrusive in the beginning, but it seems to have settled on something that shouldn’t really be a problem as long as Anurag is happy with the data he will get.

6 Likes
#29

My two cents…

As long as Saul doesn’t mind providing the info, why not track his returns? I have enjoyed his board, but I think one of the main draws to the board is members trying to figure out how to emulate his results. There has been a ton of great info on here, great posts, philosophies, etc. However, I have a feeling that a few more yrs of returns vs the S & P like Saul had last yr and the board would quickly dry up.

Just my opinion…

Jason

4 Likes
#30

However, I have a feeling that a few more yrs of returns vs the S & P like Saul had last yr and the board would quickly dry up.

Saul has started a good board. There are very high quality posters here. I just learnt so much about Arcam and ExOne over here that I didn’t get to learn elsewhere. It is not about proving who is right but about looking at the information for it is and then going our separate ways on doing something about it or not.

To avoid the board drying up we need to let the board take its own personality rather than be dependent on a few or worse one individual. I am sure Saul would not want to board to die even if he is unable to post here.

For me, the defining feature of this board is not Saul or his results but the focus on learning about investing and businesses. My effort on tracking Saul strengthens the board by building up the board focus on these two issues instead of determining one’s success based on being able to replicate Saul’s results. Just like a company is bound to do badly eventually if the focus is on stock price, investing is bound to end badly for those whose focus is only on returns than business, risk and portfolio building. A byproduct of my endeavor is detecting what makes Saul’s handling of his portfolio work.

Anurag

6 Likes
#31

-“It is better to be roughly right than precisely wrong”

-“Don’t let the perfect be the enemy of the good”

Thanks for putting this together Anurag, I for one appreciate it.

2 Likes
#32

Okay, I guess it’s time for me to weigh in here.

Yes I understand why people have come to my defense. And I really appreciate it. Anurag has come across rather aggressively. I’ve felt him a bit like an attack dog at times in this discussion, on a board where previously people have been courteous and polite to each other for the most part, but so be it. I don’t think he realizes it though. He’s pretty much implied, although not in those words, that since I use an investing method so much different from his, and from the MF standard, he’s going to expose me as a fraud. That’s the feeling I got.

Why am I tracking Saul? Well, Saul appears to make the case - deliberately or unconsciously - that one can use his methods to get the kind of returns that no one in the history of equity investing has achieved.

It does not matter whether or not Saul or anyone likes it, I’m gonna track him based upon public info he shares and would question his claims if they appear unsubstantiated.

If Saul truly wishes to provide stock advice…

Who knows if your calculations are totally out of whack? You may be scoring 60% per year instead of 30%. This past month accounting already proved how erroneous your claims have been. You claimed 3% and I got you at 7%. See??

I will track whomever I want and ask for information/clarification on what I don’t have or understand. I will also challenge unsubstantiated claims or assertions made by anyone…

Let us get this straight. This is a public board despite the name of the board. If some folks want to create exclusive settings, there are mailing lists that can be created to discuss things in a private and closed environment.

I really don’t think he realizes how confrontational all that comes across.

But hey, I just exposed myself. I had no hesitation in pointing out that I was down eight point something percent last year, when the S&P was up 13%. I also had no hesitation in pointing out that I was down 62.5% in 2008. 62.5%!!! I tell it as it is, and if Anurag thinks I was faking it I’m surprised he hasn’t figured out that I could just fake what information I give him, and at the end of the month just pick some stock that did great that month and say I bought it at the beginning of the month. I have some skepticism about how well he will track results anyway when he started off using an incorrect stock symbol with that incorrect stock’s results, and then figuring year end results, not from the close on December 31st, or even from the close on the first trading day of 2015, which was Jan 2nd, but from the close on Monday Jan 5th, which made my results look almost 4% better than they actually were (which I pointed out to him). The 31st is the correct date to use, by the way.

Sure I had great, really great results from 1989 to 2007, and good, but not quite as good, results since, but I’m managing much more money now than when I started, and it’s much harder to get the same results with a larger portfolio, much, much, harder, for all the reasons I’ve explained and Neil has collected in the FAQ/Knowledgebase. I’m sure I was lucky too (getting out of my internet stocks in early 2000, just before the bubble burst, comes to mind). I did retire 19 years ago (1996), and my family and I have taken all our living expenses, college expenses, car expenses, housing and everything else, out of my portfolio ever since, for 19 years, and I have about ten times more in it still than I had when I retired, so the method works. If you want to learn more about it, read the FAQ/Knowledge base (post #5584).

Now if anyone actually wants to learn to invest the way I have done, the way to do it isn’t for you to just blindly copy the stocks I invest in, but to learn the method, which I have explained at length, and learn how to find the stocks for yourself, and find out what part of it suits your personality and financial situation. I’m an old guy and may not be around much longer. If you are just following the stocks I’ve chosen, what will you do when I’m gone? It’s best to learn how to do it yourself! – Hell, I’ve never considered my stocks to be the best possible ones to invest in. They are just the ones I’ve found. Consider my information about them as one of the sources of information you use, but if you find a better stock somewhere else, go for it! And please let me know so that I can evaluate it for myself as a possibility. That’s what the board is about. Discussion of investing and stocks, not how my portfolio does for the next six or twelve months. And if Anurag wants to semi-track my results for the year, that’s his business. I’ll tell you how I did at the end of the year anyway. JMO

Saul

For FAQ’s and Knowledgebase
please go to Post #5584

52 Likes
#33

Hi Saul

Interestingly, I never said you were lying or a fraud. You have taken it to imply so just because I simply want to track. At the same time you have no qualms in assigning made up motives to TMF actions on various services. Words like “Attack Dog” is hardly a civilized way of talking and don’t help. Again, I am not using any such language. Just saying…

Furthermore, this is your interpretation that I want everyone to act like me or follow TMF. I have never said so. I have shared my approach sometimes but do not try to convince others that they should do so. There are perhaps infinite ways to succeed with investing simply because market is unpredictable and considerably random. Some ways have a better probability of succeeding than others but that is all. One reason I pay thousands annually to 7 TMF services that I subscribe is to enjoy the diversity of opinion. I have learnt over time to not take myself seriously. There are exceptionally smart folks at Fooldom - staff and members alike.

Now that you brought back some past once again, I am curious as to what were your investments during 2000-2002 that made you a compounded return of ~2x in that period when the market crashed by 40% over that period. Please enlighten. Again, I am not saying that it did not happen, I just want to feel that pixie dust a little. I am also curious why you were unable to avoid the bath in 2008. Was the 2000-2002 era a stroke of luck for you or skill - in your assessment?

Thanks

Anurag

5 Likes
#34

I have some skepticism about how well he will track results anyway when he started off using an incorrect stock symbol with that incorrect stock’s results, and then figuring year end results, not from the close on December 31st, or even from the close on the first trading day of 2015, which was Jan 2nd, but from the close on Monday Jan 5th, which made my results look almost 4% better than they actually were (which I pointed out to him). The 31st is the correct date to use, by the way.

I replied to your yesterday’s request on the board to use the dates that Steve provided - presumably Dec 31st. The sheet is public for all to see. Here is the link again:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/122OtxRVIJelV1DXqbqbN…

The results currently show 6% gain which you confirmed as accurate yesterday. So we should be off to good start.

As far as incorrect symbol, someone will always be able to catch an error at some point. It can easily be corrected and since all past stock data is easily available. This is the beauty of publicly shared document. People can always point to errors and missed information.

Please let me know if anything is still amiss on the spread sheet and I can correct it promptly.

thanks

Anurag

#35

One reason I pay thousands annually to 7 TMF services that I subscribe is to enjoy the diversity of opinion.

No wonder you are so defensive of MF, you said you were part of RB and SA but I had no idea you were shelling out that type of cash for 7 services annually. How much have you paid in total over the years? I figured they were paying you to come to the board to recruit members for the premium services.

It would be awfully embarrassing if Saul’s portfolio shared on a free board outperforms yours given all the cash you’ve spent on TMF.

Sweetadeline
no position in MF premium services

6 Likes
#36

It would be awfully embarrassing if Saul’s portfolio shared on a free board outperforms yours given all the cash you’ve spent on TMF.

Bring it on! :slight_smile:

Anurag

1 Like
#37

This whole issue is getting out of hand, but if we actually look at what’s happened you’ll see that there isn’t really an issue at all.

Because Saul publicly provides his portfolio allocations almost every month the information is easily tracked. It won’t be perfect, but it’ll be close over time.

Saul doesn’t seem to mind if someone tracks him. How (F)oolish! An open track record is one of the defining features of how David and Tom G run their newsletters. I think it’s awesome that Saul doesn’t mind, and I think it’s cool that Anurag has volunteered to track it.

Unfortunately Anurag, whether you realize it or not you have definitely come off as combative. But because I know you from the SA and RB boards I know that you’re a very helpful and valuable contributor, so I gave you a little slack here as I don’t think you meant to be. I think Saul did the same.

And lastly, sweetadeline… Anurag is not some MF shill. In fact pretty much all the regular posters on this board are MF subscribers, except for you.

I think what you’ll find is that both Anurag and Saul will readily attest just how valuable these newsletter services are. No one minds that you aren’t a subscriber, but please show a little respect for the place where we all get the vast majority of our investing ideas and philosophies (including Saul and Anurag).

Additionally, I think you would learn quite a bit if you just signed up for Stock Advisor. You could just try it out and if you don’t like it cancel it and get a full refund. I have done that in the past, and have gotten a full refund. I currently subscribe to both Stock Advisor and Rule Breakers. I tried Supernova and cancelled it. Or perhaps even start reading the free side of Fool.com to get a better grasp of the investing strategies that TMF teaches.

Hopefully this doesn’t come off shillish. It was hard not to suggest something like this before when you went 100% into SWKS, but I had to say something when you started talking negatively about the newsletters (in that Anurag was a MF shill, being paid to recruit subscribers).

Anyway I just had to say something…

21 Likes
#38

Hey Anurag! I’ll ask you the same thing I asked Saul a while ago. Why don’t you start your own board? I’m one of your followers and have found your advice on portfolio management very valuable. I don’t want you to stop posting here, but I think an Anurag board would be a great addition to the Fool.

Jeb

5 Likes
#39

Hey Jeb

Thanks for the kind words.

I am a wandering Fool and prefer to cross pollinate ideas and information across the Fooldom.

I am not going to stay on this board much longer if I see continued hostility by a majority of folks around here and my inability to create any value.

Anurag

1 Like
#40

Seems like we need a timeout here …

Clearly, Saul isn’t going to be pressured into doing anything he isn’t already doing.

Also, clearly, there is no harm in summarizing what he posts in a spreadsheet to give a sort of trackable, numerical substance to Saul’s portfolio ideas, recognizing, of course, that the spreadsheet is going to be at best a rude reflection of Saul’s actual portfolio because of timing, share count, and other issues … which can sometimes be quite significant in either direction. So, while such a model portfolio may or may not be interesting, it really can never provide any meaningful check or validation or repudiation or any other kind of valuation of what actually happens in Saul’s own portfolio because we are understandably missing a lot of information.

So, while some of the antagonism against Anurag is misplaced because, whatever he might like to get, Saul has made his position clear and isn’t about to be inconvenienced, what is disturbing is the implied challenge, e.g., the quotes in Saul’s recent post. There isn’t anything overtly offensive, but a fairly clear sense of doubt.

Now, doubt is healthy … goodness knows that the world is full of plenty of liars, the finance world more so than most perhaps, as well as an abundance of people who claim things for which there is no factual support, again, prominent in the finance world, but far from uniquely there. And, in general, I think it is a good thing to question that which is dubious or unsubstantiated … I have been known to do so myself in certain realms. I think what has generated the emotion here relates to two factors in particular:

  1. Saul is effectively a patron saint for this board and has many grateful admirers. That makes us defensive on his behalf if we see him questioned or attacked. While perhaps a very natural reaction on the part of an admirer, this may be a misplaced emotion, unless the attack is crude or overtly offensive, because it is quite clear that Saul is quite comfortable in his own skin and thus needs little defense.

  2. What we have seen so far is doubt without substance. I think in reality is the bigger problem, although not one that has been much addressed. If Saul were to make a claim which we could then test independently and find his claim wrong, that would be a clear, sound basis for questioning other claims. The appearance here is questioning, doubt, skepticism without substance. Given casually, we probably would not think twice about it, but the context has made it an issue … reinforced, in fact, by the skeptical request for information about past periods.

Now, there is nothing wrong about being skeptical … something good, in fact, especially in finance and investing. But, being skeptical about a patron saint on his own board without offering anything concrete in terms of proof might be considered a strategic error.

Hopefully, it is an error which can be corrected since it is clear that Anurag has lots to offer and this board is enriched by having multiple points of view articulately expressed. While I am relatively new here, I love the quality of discourse and information, even though I am not personally interested in every company.

7 Likes
#41

Can’t we all just get along?

Brian
Long on knowledge and discussion
Short on drama and antagonism

3 Likes
#42

Can’t we all just get along?

Heavens to Murgatroyd, what a terrible idea!

I have no idea if tracking Saul in xls (whatever that is) is a burden to Saul, but I must say that it is a burden to me.

I find myself drawn to gossip, drama and intrigue much as a least weasel is drawn to a succulent young field vole, and as a result I have spent at least seven minutes reading this thread, simultaneously anticipating and dreading a battle of titans (Saul and Anurag), all the while knowing deep in my heart that there is no nourishment here (thus distinguishing this attractant from the succulent field vole analogy made above) – there is no investing lesson, no smart stock tip, no path to wealth and fame. Yet I cannot tear myself away!

Will Anurag leave (which would be a shame)? Will Saul lose his temper (which might actually be kind of fun)? Will Anirban weigh in and take a side? What exactly is xls? There are so many unresolved issues, so many dramatic themes emerging . . . .

And meanwhile, physics is going un-researched, the cherry bonbons and cooking sherry are sitting unattended in the fridge, the dogs are looking very uncomfortable, and TV is silent and dark – in short, no one is doing the important stuff.

So yes, one could say that, in a way, tracking Saul in xls is turning out to be a burden!

Of course, there is the potential that as a project it could provide valuable information that would help make us all better investors, but I do not really care about that. My hurdle is to keep annual losses less than 4%, and since 2009 I have managed to come within shouting distance of this goal. So I am content ignoring the investing side of things, and mostly treat MF boards as social media, where I can bother people anonymously and thus with impunity.

Rich

CED

39 Likes
#43

Rich,

Whatever you do, don’t stop posting. You are a wonderful writer.

Fletch

2 Likes
#44

Anurag,
Don’t you think it would be helpful to see which companies are causing the biggest return?

Andy

#45

I second Fletch on that. Are you a professional writer, by any chance?
Saul

#46

What exactly is xls?

Hey Rich,
Not sure whether you are being facetious or not, but xls is an Excel spreadsheet.

I hope Daisy and the other dogs are happy dogs :slight_smile:

Take care,
HoHum

1 Like