It won't Just be Cold in the Ukraine

The wars in Russia and Iran have significantly lowered profit margins, thus dampening economic incentive to fill reserves

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From last month…

British Gas boss warns UK risks winter fuel shortage
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/08/27/british-gas-boss-warns-of-winter-fuel-shortage/
Chris O’Shea, the Chief Executive of Centrica, said Britain had “almost no gas in storage in the UK for the coming winter”. O’Shea said low gas reserves in the UK were a “huge concern” and that the country had “for too long” relied on other countries for energy imports while underinvesting in storage and power plants.

Britain’s gas facilities were around 30% full this week, down from 46% at the same time last year. They were more than 90% full in the two years before that. Gas levels are currently at the lowest level for August since records began, according to Bloomberg data.

DB2

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Ukraine has accumulated enough natural gas to meet its baseline requirements for the upcoming 2026-2027 winter season, reaching its target a month ahead of schedule.

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@ tjscott0 - Your subject line makes no sense. Ukraine has already accumulated 14.6 billion cubic meters of gas, reaching its winter reserve target a month ahead of schedule.

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What happened last October?
Russia targeted Ukraine natural gas facilities and storage.
You don’t think that will occur again this October? Especially as Ukraine has a limited supply of interceptor missiles.

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Your making predictions masked as facts. Grow up.

We’ll see in a month.

Ukraine’s way of fighting war can’t match what’s coming

Russia is shifting its strategy to erase Kyiv’s battlefield advantages.

(( That advantage is rapidly diminishing. When Ukraine developed interceptors that could destroy Russia’s swarms of Shahed drones, Russia adapted, deploying faster jet-powered Shaheds that are much harder to intercept. Russia is in the process of deploying a satellite constellation to rival Starlink, which Ukrainian drone units use to strike Russian forces in occupied Ukraine. For years the Kremlin’s strategy consisted of throwing industrial mass at Ukrainian innovation, but it is now combining that mass with its own innovations. }}

Free link:
https://wapo.st/3UIr9wz

intercst

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Russia has shown that it need not conquer and occupy Ukraine’s entire Black Sea coastline to turn that country into the equivalent of a landlocked state. It need only deny access to Ukraine’s critically important Odessa port complex, something it is doing quite effectively through air and missile strikes on port facilities and approaching ships.

That reality will probably not amount to a knock-out blow in the ongoing war. But it is likely to have a profound impact on Ukraine’s already gloomy post-war prospects — and, by extension, on the contours of a new European security landscape in the current conflict’s aftermath.

People view my posts as pro-Russia. Nope just a pragmatic look at the war.

Do you believe the US should support Ukraine with arms, intelligence, supplies and other things that cost US taxpayer dollars?

That is only your opinion.

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Do you believe the USA should have involved itself [meddling] in the Maiden Revolution?
At a minimum the US made it clear that they supported the efforts of demonstrators to force Yanukovych’s removal. A democratically elected leader.
A released phone conversation of assistant secretary of state Nuland, probably by the Russians, A Nuland telephone call in which she and U.S. ambassador to Ukraine Geoffey Pyatt discussed in detail their preferences for specific personnel in a post-Yanukovych government.
We can’t know how the CIA was involved. We usually do not find out until quite a bit of time has pasted. Examples from past actions-Italy election 1948, Iran 1953, Guatemala 1954, Bay of Pigs, Allende 1973. Separate from the CIA-US military advisng & involvement in Greek civil war-late 1940’s & Libya intervention by NATO.

Ukraine was a red line for Russia. The final eastern European nations to be absorbed by NATO right up to Russia’s front door. The US insisted that there was no need to negotiate on NATO membership, because it was irrelevant to Russian security. Well methinks Putin took an opposing view.
Kiev the birthplace of Mother Russia. Ukraine has a historical & cultural significance to Russia. Along with strategic location & economic ties.
Historically Russia utilized buffer states for strategic defense. They had been invaded by Moguls, Poles, French, & Germany.
The US misjudged how important Ukraine was to Russia. After all our nation was key in absorbing former Warsaw Pact nations into NATO. What could a weaken Russian military do? Ha, we found out.
The Ukraine War is a US victory. We have bled the Ukrainian state to further weaken Russia to a draw. And you thought this foreign adventure was about freedom for the Ukrainians. Silly boy. First Russia. Then China. Always hoping the conflicts do not turn nuclear.

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I read your entire post.

I take it that’s a no?

Just curious on your view, that’s all.

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Makes sense. Putin was forced to invade Ukraine because if Ukraine joined NATO then Putin wouldn’t be able to invade Ukraine.

The only part I don’t quite grok is that in 2022 Ukraine was ineligible for NATO membership and its membership plan for joining NATO had been previously blocked by the US, Germany, and France.

But I guess Putin decided it was better to be safe than sorry.

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December 10 2021

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukrainian-president-zelenskiy-holding-talks-with-biden-adviser-says-2021-12-09/

Biden assures Zelenskiy that NATO membership in Ukraine’s hands, Kyiv says

I guess so.

Correct

There comes a point when you don’t proceed.
I give President Obama credit in effect walking away from a Syrian adventure. Yeah he gave arms to rebels etc. But he was under extreme pressure from the US foreign policy apparatus to become more actively involved.
https://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/17/world/middleeast/syria-assad-obama-airstrikes-diplomats-memo.html
#51 U.S. Diplomats Urge Strikes Against Assad in Syria

IMO he saw the past adventures Iraq 2003 & Libya 2011. And Syria had Russian involvement. He realized Syria likely would be a real SH*T show too.

We cannot be savior of the world.

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C’mon. In context, Russia was demanding that Ukraine not join NATO. Biden said it was not up to Russia.

At that time (and still) Ukraine was not eligible to join NATO because it had an active border dispute. I asked Gemini to provide what other steps were required for Ukraine to become eligible. There was a lot of stuff and Ukraine wasn’t close. The notion Putin’s hand was forced is nonsense:


Prior to 2022, NATO allies consistently emphasized that Ukraine needed to complete key structural reforms across five core areas:

Key Requirements for Ukrainian NATO Accession

1. Political and Anti-Corruption Reforms

  • Judicial Reform: Establishing an independent, trustworthy judiciary capable of enforcing the rule of law and protecting property rights.

  • Anti-Corruption Infrastructure: Strengthening independent oversight bodies (such as the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine, or NABU) to combat systemic corruption, particularly among high-level public officials and the judiciary.

  • De-oligarchization: Reducing the outsized influence of powerful private oligarchs over national politics, the economy, and mainstream media outlets.

2. Security Service and Intelligence Governance

  • Civilian Control of the Military: Institutionalizing clear civilian, parliamentary, and democratic oversight over the Armed Forces and intelligence agencies.

  • Demilitarization of the SBU: Transforming the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) from a Soviet-style agency with broad domestic economic-crime powers into a focused counter-intelligence and counter-terrorism service.

3. Military Modernization and Interoperability

  • NATO Operational Compatibility: Transitioning military command structures, doctrine, communications systems, and tactical logistics to NATO standard operating procedures.

  • Standardized Defense Procurement: Overhauling defense purchasing to ensure transparency, eliminate corrupt middlemen, and align equipment standards with Allied forces.

4. Protection of Democratic Institutions & Human Rights

  • Protection of Minorities: Ensuring robust legal frameworks for minority rights, including language and educational rights for ethnic minority populations (a point often highlighted by NATO member Hungary).

  • Free Media and Electoral Integrity: Maintaining transparent, competitive electoral processes and protecting press freedom.

5. Defense Budgeting and Economic Readiness

  • Sustainable Defense Spending: Allocating a sufficient percentage of national gross domestic product (GDP) to defense—aiming for the NATO benchmark of 2%—and managing those resources efficiently.

  • Economic Transition: Demonstrating commitment to a fair, transparent market economy with protected private enterprise.

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You forgot to include the Swedes and the Lithuanians.

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You are the silly boy. The Ukraine War is a EU and NATO victory in the making thanks to the courage and skills of the Ukrainians. The Ukrainians with the help of EU and NATO has bleed Russia into a third world economy. Russians have lost 500,000 soldiers. Ukrainians are fighting for their lives because they know if Russia wins, they are dead. The Russian people did not want this war, but Putin wanted this war thinking that Russia could easily conquer Ukraine. The EU nations have learned from the Ukrainians how to fight the Russians while building up their own militaries. The Eastern EU nations will fight any Russian incursions with the same vigor as the Ukrainians. Your pro-Russia posts are biased. You have been pro-Russia and anti-EU for the last 20 years on this board.

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See how many people around you understand this, or have any memory of, let alone understand, that the Bucha Massacre is (I think correctly) understood by Ukrainians as a clear signal of genocidal Russian intent

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