If anyone is interested (probably not) this is how I’ve done so far this year, after my Worst Investing
Mistake Ever. It seems I haven’t given up the habit of making mistakes either. When I grow up I want to
be mistake-free like Saul or Bear or … any of you folks. At the end of November, I bought a small
position in several companies as more or less experiments. I even gave up a chunk of my “forever”
holdings for the cause. I wanted exposure to new companies, to follow them and study them enough to get
a good feel for them while they (hopefully) grew. As expected, some worked, some didn’t. One is
my best YTD (which isn’t long at all.) The experiment is pretty much over and I’m back to a more focused
port, although there is room for still more focus and as soon as one of these companies screws up, I’ll
be a step closer.
So 2017, January started out like this
Ticker Bought Size Conv Gain YTD* FB 04/23/15 4.4% 6 2.2% GOOGL 05/10/15 2.4% 6 6.2% MA 02/21/17 3.1% 8 15.8% SHOP 02/27/17 7.5% 5 35.9% PYPL 05/01/17 3.1% 8 7.2% ALGN 05/10/17 6.9% 7 18.6% PAYC 05/31/17 3.3% 7 23.9% BESIY 11/29/17 2.0% 3 18.4% CGNX 11/29/17 2.0% 3 -12.6% GRUB 11/29/17 2.0% 3 38.4% HDP 11/29/17 2.0% 3 -9.9% ANET 11/29/17 9.6% 7 10.0% ABMD 11/29/17 5.9% 8 0.0% SQ 12/06/17 10.2% 6 32.7% TREE 12/06/17 5.3% 7 2.3% IPGP 12/11/17 6.4% 8 15.0% NVDA 12/20/17 9.7% 8 25.7% MKSI 12/20/17 5.1% 7 18.0% MU 12/22/17 5.0% 4 -48.9% LRCX 12/24/17 2.0% 3 4.6% Cash 2.0%
Buys: AYX @ 3%,
Sells: MU @ 100%
Buys: PSTG, added to ABMD
Sells: BEISY, CGNX, GRUB, HDP, AYX and LRCX, all @100%.
So my portfolios look like this on 02/28/18:
- GoDate is the latter of the Purchase Date or January 1, 2018.
- GoPrice is the price on the latter of January 1, 2018 (Open) or the Purchase Date (Actual Cost).
Conv = Conviction
Gain = Gain YTD
Current Holdings, 02/28/18
Ticker Bought GoDate* GoPrice Size Conv Gain CAGR ABMD 11/29/17 01/01/18 271.60 5.9% 8 141.3% 251.8% SHOP 02/27/17 01/01/18 101.59 7.5% 5 35.9% 566.1% SQ 12/06/17 01/01/18 34.70 10.2% 6 32.7% 474.3% NVDA 12/20/17 01/01/18 195.78 15.5% 8 25.7% 311.5% PAYC 05/31/17 01/01/18 80.47 3.3% 7 23.9% 276.9% ALGN 05/10/17 01/01/18 222.61 6.9% 7 18.6% 187.3% MKSI 12/20/17 01/01/18 95.05 5.1% 7 18.0% 179.0% MA 02/21/17 01/01/18 152.01 3.1% 8 15.8% 148.0% IPGP 12/11/17 01/01/18 214.14 6.4% 8 15.0% 137.1% ANET 11/29/17 01/01/18 235.58 9.6% 7 10.0% 80.3% PYPL 05/01/17 01/01/18 74.24 3.1% 8 7.2% 53.9% GOOGL 05/10/15 01/01/18 ###### 2.4% 6 6.2% 44.8% TREE 12/06/17 01/01/18 342.05 5.3% 7 2.3% 14.8% FB 04/23/15 01/01/18 177.68 4.4% 6 2.2% 14.3% PSTG 02/21/18 02/21/18 21.76 1.8% 4 0.0% 0.0% Cash 3.6%
My YTD gains, including realized gains and losses are as follows, and were calculated by
this simple Method:
[ (M2 closing statement balance divided by M1 closing statement balance) +/- external cash flows] minus one.
I know, that’s pretty disappointing and nothing to write home about. Obviously my Biggest Mistake is still causing some
Minor pain but that’s not an excuse and I’ve got a long way to go. So I had better get started. I expect considerable
improvement whether or not if Mr Market should find an excuse to initiate a tantrum. Meanwhile I hope you’re doing
better than me so far this year.
Have a great day,
The Former Players (Closed Positions—Hasta Luego)
• Alteryx, Inc. (AYX)
. . . Alteryx was also part of my shuffle at the end of November last yeal but never having much conviction, I sold
. . . when it was time to focus. Might have been a huge mistake as it roars into the stratosphere.
• BE Semiconductor Industries NV (BESIY)
. . . BE Semi, another part of my shuffle at the end of November last yeal, was jettisoned soon after. I knew better
. . . than to trust in commodities, but I sometimes have to be taught a lesson twice. (But I owned Micron for awhile
. . . too. Maybe I have to be taught thrice.
• Cognex Corporation (CGNX)
. . . Another shuffle stock from November was Cognex, conviction waivered quickly, good riddance.
• GrubHub Inc. (GRUB)
. . . GrubHub is the lowest-conviction stock I’ve bought in years. I can’t even tell you why I did because unless I’m
. . . way off base (wouldn’t be unique) the business model of delivering fast food will never set the world on fire. I
. . . want fire.
• Hortonworks, Inc. (HDP)
. . . Purchased in late 2017, I’m not real informed on HDP, but I had the feeling (too technical for ya?) that of all the
. . . big data manipulators and enhancers, HDP is a middle of the pack story. Bleh. Adios.
• Lam Research Corporation (LRCX)
. . . Another peek in the shuffle was LRCX. They appear to be profitable but there is something about the way
. . . management confronted questioners on a conference call that I’m uncomfortable with. Doesn’t take much to
. . . bail when your conviction is low. Let that be a lesson to you.
• Micron Technology, Inc. (MU)
. . . Micron has everything going for it on paper, but their stock price isn’t tracking progress. Somebody hates them.
. . . Not me, but their stock, well, I didn’t love it either.
The Players & Payers (Current Holdings)
? ABIOMED, Inc. (ABMD)
. . . My New Darling, First bought ABMD at the end of November, 2017. I wrote about ABMD on this board in
. . . November, I believe. Love it so far. Doubled my position in ABMD a week ago. Focus, focus, focus.
. . . Doubled my position in ABMD a week ago. Focus, focus, focus.
? Align Technology, Inc. (ALGN)
. . . Beel ALIGNED since mid 2017. While it has definitely been good to me to date, my conviction level dropped a
. . . couple of points recently on some nasty rumors I’ve heard (unpublished.) We’ll see. What happens from now on.
• Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET)
. . . Arista was part of my shuffle at the end of November last year. Glad it was.
• Facebook, Inc. (FB)
. . . What can I say about my old friend Facebook? It has been a cornerstone of my ports since early 2015 and added
. . . to it in early 2017, but lately their reputation is under attack and possibly for valid reasons. It’s too early to tell
. . . for me, but I am not against cutting back when the time comes. There are too many newer, faster-growiing
. . . companies out there. Friend or not, I own you, FB, so get busy making some money for Dan.
• Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL)
. . . There is nothing new I can say about Google, except to repeat the paragraph for Facebook and substitute the
. . . name Google for Facebook. You guys get busy too.
• IPG Photonics Corporation (IPGP)
. . . Don’t know why more people don’t like IPGP. Yes, they sell hardware. Get over it. Hardware can rock too.
• Mastercard Incorporated (MA)
. . . Amptjer cprmerstpme botes the dist. I kept a little for old time’s sake. Man, they’ve been good to me; my new
. . . high flyers had better step up to make up for owning less MA. Still have a bit.
• MKS Instruments, Inc. (MKSI)
. . . MKS was another hardware company that’s ringing the bell for me. They make measuring instruments and
. . . money.
• NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)
. . . NVDA is a cyclical play for me, and what a cycle! Tripled my position in February.
• Paycom Software, Inc. (PAYC)
. . . Payroll for employers is a bitch. Hello Paycom, welcome!
• Pure Storage, Inc. (PSTG)
. . . PSTG is new for me. Haven’t even given it a test drive but in the last week a 0% gainer isn’t my worst performer
. . . . Unfortunately.
• PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL)
. . . Cyber pay is finally beginning to hit stride. While there is plenty of new competition, I like the old Paypal’s
. . . experience too. We all like experience when we get old. Maybe it’s an excuse? Still, I sold a little in mid 2017.
• Shopify Inc. (SHOP)
. . . It’s Shopify. 'Nuff said, except please stop issuing equity and start issuing some cash my way. Sooner the better,
. . . boys.
• Square, Inc. (SQ)
. . . I like the company and it’s performing great in the short time I’ve been aboard, but I may end up cutting the size
. . . down to allow for the possibility that competition is as tough as I expect it to be (or so I can buy the
. . . competition!
• LendingTree, Inc. (TREE)
. . . This lending facilitator is growing like … ok, no more puns. Everyone wants money. They can find it for you. Go
. . . tree!