Jason’s October Portfolio Summary

Since the time I began to try to follow Saul’s advice and listen to the contributions from everyone here:

Year % Change
2018 +38.9%
2019 +32.9%
2020 +203%
2021 +46.8%
2022 (-)58.55%

Starting with $100 at beginning of 2018- end of 2018 = 138.9%.

For 2019 I started with 138.9 and multiplied that by (32.9%) = 184.6%, giving me $184.60 at end of 2019. 184.6 (203%) = 559.3% at end of 2020. 559.3 (46.6%) = 820% after four years, at end of 2021. 820 (-58.55%) = 339.89% after 5 years; Increase what I had at the end of 2022. 340 by 46.8% = 499% after 5 yrs and 8 months of this year.

2023 Month to Date Year to Date
January +14% +14%
February +6.45% +21.2%
March +1.55% +23.13%
April (-)14.5% +5.28%
May +31.5% +38.4%
June +7.3% +48.5%
July +4.4% +54.5%
August (-)5% +46.8%
September (-)2.5% +43.1%
October (-)10.1% +28.65%

Many strategies can outperform the market.

Here are four we know:

1.)The High-Quality Business Strategy

2.)The Special Situations Strategy

3.)The Growth at a Reasonable Price Strategy

4.)The Classical Value Strategy

I modify the 1.)High Quality Businesses and 2.) Special Situations strategy.


The (Concentrated) High-Quality Business Strategy is what I think of when I think about the investing style of Warren Buffett.

“We own a concentrated portfolio consisting of high-quality businesses.” “High quality means growing cash flows, competitive advantages, and a strong balance sheet.”

The Special Situations Strategy was popularized by Joel Greenblatt’s book “You can be a Stock Market Genius.”

It’s about finding situations where businesses are miss-priced due to different circumstances. These could be due to anything out of the ordinary. Warren Buffett, calls them “workouts.”

I modify these two strategies according to my my risk profile, mostly. I combine these two strategies as they apply to companies currently in the fastest growth phase regarding their customer adoption, as measured primarily by revenues. By definition, this is when a company’s growth is most volatile. I also make sure to follow Saul’s advice to not invest in turn arounds.

I try to invest into companies with the most effecient business models that are selling the picks and shovels for a disruptive technology that’s growing revenues at hypergrowth rates🤩. I invest in companies that are public and are presently ‘overvalued’ by many investors.

What then is my advantage? I believe that when most investors in the public market are talking about upside and downside to their investments, their talking about share price related valuations. When I talk about the upside and downside regarding my investments, I’m talking about how much each company will bring together multiple disruptive technologies creating transformative economic advantages for their customers. It’s the hypergrowth in customer adoption rate that brings forth the possibility for hypergrowth in revenue accrual, right.

I spend ~98% of my (part)time making sure I’m invested in the very Highest Quality Businesses and ~2% of my time making sure Fear Uncertainty and Doubt is not really about anything fundamental to the success of these companies. If I find unwarranted FUD around a company that satisfies my modifications to the High Quality Business strategy, I invest.

10/31/23 9/30/23 8/31/23 7/31/23 6/30/23 5/31/23 4/30/23 3/31/23
Tesla 33.35% 31.46% 31.63% 35.02% 33.69% 33.11% 31.07% 30.32%
Snowflake 20.3% 19.21% 14.95% 20.01% 15.99% 16.03% 31.64% 28.18%
Cloudflare 12.59% 12.58% 17.93% 19.26% 19.80% 33.8% 28.65% 27.03%
Pure Storage 10.64% 10.08% 8.97%
Samsara’s 8.87% 9.69% 8.38%
Nvidia 14.26% 6.84%
Crowdstrike 0% 5.26% 9.98% 14.11% 13.34%
Zscaler 0% 4.89%
Monday 0% 8.15% 7.89% 14.26% 16.16%
Datadog 0% 7.20% 13.27%
MongoDB 0%
Cash 0% 0% 0% 3.7% 2.42%

This portfolio is what is in my family’s non-taxable Roth and Rollover IRAs only. It contains the bulk of what we’ll live on during retirement. We have not added any money to these accounts for many years. To buy something I’ve sold something else. I don’t trade options or use any leverage. I stay fully invested at all times and keep, on average, less than 1% in cash.


I sold 12.5% of my large position in Snowflake (on a 5% share price bump) and a smidge IOT in order to buy a 2.5% position in Aehr (on @ 17% drop in share price today and ~30% drop in the last month ) after better than expected (weak) Q1 and as per usual no updated guide ER. (I was thinking this might be FUD)

I reversed this on 10/9/23, unfortunately I sold this the day before a +14% pop in Aehr’s share price apparently due to ‘the fed softening’. No regrets, I sold out due to my re-consideration of my personal limitation in understanding Aehr’s customers. Thanks Smorgasboard for two amazing posts here (and your ‘back of the napkin math’ confirmation posts on 10/10, the next day).

I don’t believe I must understand any technology at any kind of granular level. What I appreciated about reading Smorgasboard’s angle on Aehrs business was that it more fully formed my opinion on my own limitations about how Aehrs customers might go about making their decisions.


I sold my 6% position in Crowdstrike and ~10% of my Samsara position to double down on Nvidia (Now 14% of portfolio).

I wanted more Nvidia and had to sell something. I know that Tesla setting up a 10,000 GPU cluster this last quarter has to be an anomaly; but, after listening to several interviews with Jensen Huang, CEO of Nvidia, I’m much more confident how Nvidia’s (30 years in the making) highly parallelized Unified Device Architecture (now CUDA) is what has brought about their catch-bird seat in the multi-Trillion $ Serviceable Addressable Market (for this multi-year build out of accelerated computing and in many of the Zero → $Billion AI related markets Nvidia is now positioned to take advantage).

I believe Nvidia has demonstrated a singular ability to position themselves for an increasingly dominant position (see Oracle partnership deal with the Nvidia DGX Cloud, as a significant example Nvidia Announced a Huge Win for Its DGX Cloud AI Solution -- Is This Good News for Investors? | The Motley Fool). I no longer wonder why Nvidia’s margins are software-like (Q2 GAAP and non-GAAP gross margins were 70.1% and 71.2%, respectively).


I sold my position in Zscaler to buy back some Tesla@$199 (sold similar amount at $267) and added back a smidge to Samasara.

When I look at future catalysts for Tesla, as a company, and given my level of certainty around those catalysts, I’m often tempted to go all in on Tesla. I see massive disruption happening and no real competition (BYD is not selling at price points anywhere near Tesla).

Yes I’ve been trying for years to be invested in ‘World Changing/Elevating Companies’(If you want sustained growth endurance, I think this is a good place to start.). I’ve never been more confident in my over all portfolio than I am now. I don’t think I ever really thought I’d have this opportunity to be as invested in such great companies.

Best wishes to all,



Hey Jason thanks for a very interesting write-up and congrats on your success this year. You’ve certainly done well while many of us, including me, have struggled.

However, given that I’ve asked for debate on my portfolio I’m assuming the same is true for you. With that in mind, by my back of the matchbox calcs (and without knowing your detailed purchases) it would seem that a big part of your returns for this year to date is due to the returns on Tesla, which has been a very overweight - 20%+ stock for you from January of this year. If you bought a 20% position at around $130 in Jan (could have been a bit higher or lower), then at the current price of around $200, that would be good for a 11% return on the whole portfolio.

You now have it as a 30%+ position. In my experience I’ve gotten my fingers burnt every time I went too big into a single stock (and Saul has echoed the same). I remember a poster who decided to go all-in - literally 100% - on Upstart back in 2021. I couldn’t find the post, maybe someone else can; the poster committed to getting back to us in a couple of years to say how it all panned out - I don’t think I’ve seen the promised post mortem, but I guess we all can do the math.

Anyhow, I thought to ask, as we differ quite a bit on our assessment here: I just sold out of my full position in Tesla after the most recent ER call. And I appreciate the opportunities that the company has - that’s why I bought (I sold because the numbers were down, and Elon Musk was trying to temper expectations for the future and his tone and actual comments were very cautious). Yet you are considering going all in.

What gives you that level of confidence? And isn’t there something that you could perhaps be missing?



I can’t speak to the investing thesis, but the calculations are not quite right. His portfolio’s returns are not solely due to the Tesla position. A 20% position that grows by 54% ($130 to $200) accounts for 0.2 * 54 = 11 points of total portfolio return.

Or, working an example: suppose the portfolio is $100k and the Tesla position is $20k. The remaining $80k stays flat but the Tesla position grows to $20k * 1.54 = $31k. The whole portfolio is now $80k + $31k = $111k, or 11% higher.


Thanks. My bad. I’ve corrected my post.


Hi Willem,

I’ve never done a deep dive and posted it here on Saul’s board. I give myself an out by saying that I work full time; but, I do feel obligated to explain my investment in Tesla, if only out of respect for you.

The following is not a result of twenty hours of pulling together numbers from Tesla’s past reports. Sorry. Truely.

Yes, I am well aware that I got super lucky with getting into Tesla when I did. I’m also aware that my other holdings have gone nowhere, for more than a year. Simply put, I believe The companies in my portfolio are being built to last and this takes time. I’ve said here for years that when I invest it’s for at least 1-3 years. I get out if something fundamental changes within the company. I was fortunate in separating the FUD from the fundamentals for Tesla, IMO.

Tesla numbers this quarter were not as great as in the past and did cause me pause in whether or not the’d continue their 50% annual growth in production going forward. As you know, the industry Tesla is disrupting presently, auto sales, is cyclical and capital intensive. My education around this market has been brief but intense. Captainccs and Smorgasboard have been in Tesla much longer than I. I am sure they would be able to articulate better than I, the mountains of data. Ill just say, concept is easy, best case scenario for scaling something like global transport is bumpy at best.

I see the research needed for investing in a company causing the disruption on transportation from internal combustion engines to electric as being a game of evaluating relative numbers. I’m not just watching Tesla numbers and getting in and out with their ups and downs. I’m valuing Tesla’s execution within a giant global market that is going through fits and starts of enormous magnitude. I wrote on the Tesla Board at the Motely Fool at the begining of January something like, ‘Tesla just grew sales profitably 41% YoY during the time when auto sales in the US fell 9%. I see unknowns everywhere. Tesla must partner with politicians throughout the world. I’m not surprised that Tesla building giga factories have gone through multiple delays. I just can’t see this as anything but excellent execution.’.

What I see that I believe is missed by many is that the demand for Tesla products and services are in near infinite demand and as a company, given the obstacles that need be flattened out, Tesla has proven and I do expect them to continue, masterful and literally unparalleled execution.

And that’s what I’m evaluating as an investor. Are Tesla’s customers raving about their products and services? Is there enough greenfield TAM? And is the company executing to maintain hypergrowth throughout the next 1-3 years?

What specifically leads me to believe that the answer to the above questing is a very confident yes? Well, I can’t point to or make some amazing chart; but, this is how I look at it.

For what it’s worth,



Thanks very much for taking the time to answer Jason.

I guess I’m asking the question because I get the bull case and I’m looking to be convinced :slight_smile:

If FSD happens the stock will rerate very quickly. If they manage to sell excess capacity on Dojo, ditto. Those are two massive upsides.

But if they sell less cars, the numbers will look pretty bad in the next quarter or two, three because that is the bulk of their revenue. And I found the fact that Elon said in the call that the price paid by consumers (ito monthly cash out) stayed roughly the same over the last several quarters telling. Interest ate up more of the total and they therefore reduced the prices of the cars accordingly to keep the monthly amount roughly the same. But they both sold and produced less cars in Q3, which leads me to the conclusion that the US is entering recession - US consumers (even at the same monthly price) are buying less durable goods, which buying a new Tesla is.

And Elon just sounded so cautious to me - and that quite frankly scared me a bit:

And there’s going to be a broken record on the interest front. It’s just the interest rates have to come down. Like, if interest rates keep rising, you just fundamentally reduce affordability. It is just the same as increasing the price of the car. So I just don’t have visibility into it. If you can tell me what the interest rates are, I can tell you when we should build the factory. We’re going to build it. And I mean think we’ll start the initial phases of construction next year. But I am still somewhat scarred by 2009 when General Motors and Chrysler went bankrupt. While that’s now 14 years ago, it’s – that is seared into my mind with a branding iron because Tesla was just hanging on by a thread during that entire time and with – I mean, we closed a financing round in 2008 at 6 p.m. December 24th, Christmas Eve. And if we had not closed that financing round, we would have bounced payroll two days after Christmas. So we actually closed that around the last hour, the last day that it was possible, stressful to say the least, and then barely made it through 2009. So, I’m like – I want to just – I don’t want to be going at top speed into uncertainty. A lot of wars going on in the world obviously as well, so –

And this one:

I apologize if I’m perhaps more paranoid than I should be because that might also be the case because I am – I have PTSD from 2009, big time. And in 2017 through 2019 were not a picnic either. That was very tough going. So the auto industry is also somewhat cyclic because people hesitate to buy a new car if there’s uncertainty in the economy. So it’s car companies do very well in good economic times, and they don’t do as well in tough economic times. So, it’s just – whereas if somebody is selling bread, then I think that people still eat bread. Yes, we need bread. We need food all time. But new car, you don’t have to have…

Anyhow, that’s what was weighing on me and led me to exit at this time. I totally get why it could go fantastically well. Just not sure about the timing.

Of course I would hope for all Tesla holders that it all goes extremely well and the catalysts completely offset the issues driven by macro forces.



Yes, I agree macro is very scary despite GDP up 4.6% in the US. Canada officially in a recession. Ukraine and now the Middle East at war. Not to mention interest rates, percentage rise, up more in the last 12 month than in the last 40 years. There is a lot of talk about recession…and Tesla just keeps executing!

I guess that’s my point. Now imagine that some things go right. Can I time that? Am I going to be chasing share price. Not me.

Everyone is different, for this I am grateful.


Telsa is using the tough Macro to lower prices and absolutely crush the competition. The only company making EV’s at scale is BYD and they aren’t even close to being competitive with Tesla. According to one analyst, Tesla has generated 4.5X more cash than BYD per Vehicle sold. Besides, BYD doesn’t do FSD, megapacks, charging stations, etc. On top of this, Ford and GM are pushing out their EV timelines.

As Jason already pointed out, the majority of buyers intend to purchase an EV in the next few years, so adoption is inevitable, even if there is some delay due to the tough Macro.

This guy is obnoxious, but he makes one Tesla video a day and really knows Tesla backwards and forwards:

BYD In BIG Trouble, Tesla’s Dominance Grows - YouTube

-Long Telsa, 3%


But this was due to down time at factories and was forecast in advance. They still sell every car they make. As for them “selling fewer cars”, the question on the Tesla board is not fewer, but whether or not they can continue to hit the 50% per year more cars in the future. I get that other manufacturers are experiencing some demand issues, but Tesla is still growing rapidly.


Tamhas, you left out why unsold inventory was up also. Because of the same reason!

Tesla took the required down time for the assembly line to upgrade The factory, for the model three upgrade. This resulted in 30,000 Model3+ (the upgraded Model) sitting in parking lots in Shanghai waiting for regulatory approval from the Chinese government for their sale.

This didn’t just happen in China. I’m expecting Q4 to be a much larger production number than many expect. Maybe not, these type of factory upgrade for the new Model 3 are not yet complete in North America.

I don’t think I added that rational to my list of catalysts I had written out in a post here a few days ago.

There are simply to many catalyst reasons Tesla is underestimated to discuss without a daily podcast or something🙄


Again, temporary and now no longer the case.