Jobs Report and Payroll taxes - a disconnect?

Why You Can’t Trust Friday’s Jobs Report, And What It Means For The S&P 500…

Yet some economists also have begun to cast doubt on the accuracy of the monthly jobs reports. UBS economist Jonathan Pingle and colleagues wrote that predicting what the jobs report will say has become “less about forecasting labor market fundamentals and more about war-gaming the survey’s potential mismeasurement.”

Exhibit A is the data on federal income and employment tax withholdings reported in daily Treasury statements. An IBD analysis of Treasury inflows finds that the growth rate of the taxes withheld from worker paychecks has been sliding sharply. Growth in those tax receipts over the 10 weeks through Aug. 26 faded to just 6.7% from a year ago. That’s down from about 12% through mid-May.

A lot more in the link. A very interesting way to double check the validity of the jobs report. Not saying that I believe IBD over the jobs report but it is certainly food for thought.



Growth in profits, revenues, GDP, wage gains etc has to be lumpy. If it was consistent I would not trust it.