Note: I don’t have very much time today but I wanted to get this in for the historical record. As always, I am an amateur investor thankful for the variety of wise Fools and subscription service Gurus I follow for clearing outlining the sidelines, hash marks and goal lines of the growth investing field. As with everyone else, I tend to make my own decisions and blame only myself for any errors that I make: and I make a bunch of em. Which of course leads me to Yogi Berra.
Yogi Berra Quote 1:
“Slump? I ain’t in no slump…I just ain’t hitting.”
Yogi Berra Quote 2:
"I never blame myself when I’m not hitting, I just blame the bat and if it keeps up, I change bats. After all, If I know it isn’t my fault that I’m not hitting, how can I get mad at myself?
Yogi Berra Quote 3:
“I can see how he (Sandy Koufax) won twenty-five games. What I don’t understand is how he lost five.”
Now…its pretty easy to tie the first two Yogi quotes above to each other and then work our way down to how they might apply to our much battered high growth rosters…so let’s give it a shot.
The markets are looking at historical losses as are our individual portfolios. If you’ve managed to reach down deep and overcome your fear - congrats. There is no doubt that severe losses today will translate to higher gains in the future with the only variable being time. This has been proven by numerous market revivals over time. Just going by the historical record this cannot be disputed.
More to Yogi’s first quote - as investors we are not in any sort of slump at all. The companies in our portfolios, by and large, are still reporting fantastic results. And while the market might not care today - it will certainly care a great deal once the all-clear is sounded. That all-clear timing remains a little fuzzy. But if the markets truly are forward looking - then the recent rally that pushed our companies higher within the 30-40% range recently, is perhaps an indication that the great market winter freeze is beginning to thaw. Could happen.
On to Yogi’s second quote: Yogi never blamed himself nor doubted his ability. And neither should we. The methods and strategies developed by Saul are proven both by his extraordinary record and by historical norms. This sell-off has absolutely nothing to do with us as investors and everything to do with market mechanics and economic sentiment: Sometimes you’re hot - and sometimes you’re not.
So while Yogi blamed his bat, I simply blame the unfavorable conditions we are weathering and while I can’t change them at all - they will in fact change themselves just like they have so many times over the course of the market history. So…what about Sandy Koufax? Well…thats a little easier.
I believe that I follow some of the most talented and effective investors available to me. I review their recommendations - look for threads of consensus and collate the various opinions. I detail and rank their collective logic, strategies and results. But it was only after reading Yogi’s quote about Sandy Koufax that I realized the incredible resources I have been tracking: I am not surprised that the various Fools and services I follow are larger than life successful; but rather, that these same remarkably talented folks have held steady while losing 40-50% or so over the last 5-6 months. All of which…simply says to me, that the only thing better than not going through these troubling times is being in the exact right position to reap the springboard of the recovery.
The Portfolio lost -3.89% in June to add to its YTD negative performance. OUCH…and all that. As I mentioned in last month’s summary, I am no longer going to provide a month-by-month YTD total because I don’t think you would believe them nor do I want to get into all the discussion about them. So far my YTD results are about half as bad of what I have seen others report - which I attribute to money management and significant positive results from Trading Blocks. Should you wish to see my results send me an email and if I recognize you from posting on the boards I will send you a snapshot of my account YTD number.
The Portfolio roster has shrank to only 7 companies with sky high allocations in most. These are those:
A) STARTERS - Intended to be 65-70% of the Roster
Remains down over 38% for the year.
Great results or not DDOG is beginning to be alarmingly overweighted. Every time it dips below $95 or so I chunk something overboard too buy more. It’s latest ER was a thing of beauty:
Remains down over 56% for the year
Maybe overboard on adding to this one…you know…just a bit. Anyway SNOW is another heavy hitter who slid after a report that investors found not to their liking.
Down over 51% YTD.
BILL reminds me a lot of Harmon Kellebrew who hit 573 Home runs playing for the Minnesota Twins. Guy was a big hitter and won several American League MVP awards. Anyway…BILL was cruising along at around $175 when it last reported on May 5th: it then dropped to $97.45 by May 11th providing a heart pounding slide to investors but a potentially great entry point for the rest of us. (None of the report and resulting slide reminded me of Harmon Killebrew)
Down 44% YTD
Definitely over allocated and better suited as a great Bench player. However the lastest ER was really a doozie which got a lot of attention. The stock popped but then the downward market pressure pushed it right back down providing a really decent entry point.
Only down about 10% YTD but can’t decide if this is good or if this is bad. I mean if its a sign of strength then I say…BULLY! But what if its jacket just got caught on a limb or something and it’s just hangn there?
Recently Supplanted S as a STARTER. Having a hard time figuring out which of the two deserves a better contract. On its last report Revenue Growth is still mosying along in the 60% range; which, at its level of revenue, is really quite remarkable.
B) The Bench - Intended to represent 20% of the Roster
Down just over 50% YTD.
Excellent competition between S and CRWD for the 5th STARTER spot.
On their latest report Revenue clocked in at about 109% and data on the other reporting key metrics was on the Really Dang Good level. The fly in the ointment could be SBC which was sky high.
Down YTD about 50%.
With MELI’s potential it deserves a higher allocation; but, the problem is how do you rate MELI higher than the other members of this this skin and bones roster?
On their latest report they had record revenue which isn’t to shabby a 40 dash record for an old man:
C) Scout Team
Still thinking of several to add here including: DOCN, UPST (how low can the dang thing go with its upside potential)
D) CASH: About 15%
And thats about all the time I have for now.
Hope everyone has a safe and enjoyable July 4th.
All the Best,