https://seekingalpha.com/pr/17236122-lgi-homes-inc-reports-j…
Not sure if this got posted with all the Shopify drama however LGI released their July closing numbers which have turned negative YoY following the incredible H2 2017 compares the numbers face. Still up 25% on aggregate for the YTD.
Apologies if already posted.
Ant
They unloaded the news after hours, but came across the wires at 1815 hours while the extended trading hours were active (I believe). There was no after hour reaction.
In perspective, the absorption rate was 6.6. July absorption rates for FY’s 14 through 18 were 5.3, 6.3, 5.3, 7.8, and 6.6. So yes, a difficult comparison to 2017, and 6.6 is above average for July’s. They sugar coated the news with the +25.6% Y-o-Y comparison for first 7 months. However, all but 10 additional closings came in the first four months (724 of 734). The TTM closings are 6,581 compared to the FY18 forecast of 6,000 to 7,000. Another however, the closing rates for the last 5 months last year were 7.9, 7.0, 6.7, 7.0 and 9.9. It may be difficult to maintain 6,581 TTM through the end of the year. The number of active communities now are 81 up from 79 in June. A third however: the two added communities went active on the 18th and 21st of July. They will contribute very little to August closings, but suppressed the July absorption rate.
None of these metrics may matter much for the next year as the same-day announcement of the purchase of the assets of Wynn Homes of North Carolina is adding 23 communities. Will these be consolidated to a smaller number? Will the number go from 81 to 104 (plus the 4+ planned LGIH new communities)?
Will be an interesting conference call on the 7th, 12:30 p.m.
KC