One other factor to ponder, a two edged sword. On one side, we know we have a “fat pitch” comparison coming up on January sales. However, there is a historical trend that the market might not anticipate: the common drop in sales from December to January. In '13/'14 the absorption rates were 8.6 in December and 4.4 in January. In subsequent years these metrics were 6.3 and 3.6; 8.8 and 4.3; and last year’s shocking 7.4 to 2.8. This year it will be 9.9 and x.x? We could easily see a “4-handle” which can be received as either 50% above January last year a 50% drop month-over-month from December.
One can only hope that they didn’t drain the pipeline with December sales (or maybe hope they did if you want better price point).
KC