Two things. One, red faced, I said 4 month moving average and should have said trailing 4 quarter moving average.
Two, I have not recorded balance sheet improvement/deterioration. They have an increasing number of lots but the cost of that inventory may be increasing faster than mere number of lots. So, is there a balance sheet constraint on land purchases? Is there an availability problem? Is there a shift in business strategy? We know they said that they were buying more already improved land compared to raw land, but I don’t see a marked shift in the numbers.
So for now, still a comfortable (to me) 6.2 years, but declining. What would be a warning sign? All else being equal (how’s that for wiggle room?) I might lighten up at 5 years and be out at 3 years. Maybe. (wiggle, wiggle).
I’ll try to swallow my distaste for reading balance sheets and check the last two annuals and the last quarterly.
KC