LiveYourBestLife January '21 Port Review
Monthly Review Summary
<This is my first monthly review. And if I don’t get this out soon it will be my February review. So now is the time. I have been tracking my stocks for years. And very intimately for the last 4 years around the time, I found this board. Creating these reviews is the next step in my development. This one is a little weaker than I would like. I am operating under the version 1 versus version none model.>
What a month! And not in a good way. My returns for the month were not as anyone would want or expect. I am down almost 50% from my peak around 10/15/21. (I track weekly) And down 24.32% in January
What lessons did this month teach me and what I heard?. (It takes both right?). One of those lessons is to not fall in love with a stock or a stock idea actually. That stock would be Upstart. The concept just makes so much sense to me. The tech seems to be going in the right direction AND it has a lot of drama around it. Too much drama. It is starting to act like Tesla did back in the day on this discussion board. So I fell 33% in love with it. That is too much allocated to one stock. So there can be too much love.
Then they reported. The numbers were really quite good. Just not astonishing. This caused the first of the fall off. I did not read the numbers well enough or let those numbers talk to me. Investing too much in one story stock which was dominating the posts on this board. Really I could go on.
This experience has caused me to take my stock pick efforts to the next stage. Up until this point, I did not have expectations associated with each stock’s performance. I was more interested in the story. That works well in an up market where everything is growing and I look like a genius. That model fails horribly in a choppy/down market. See Upstart above.
Also during this time, PaulBryant (Bear) started to recommend that we state our expectations for each stock so during the earning seasons we have a goal post we are aiming for (see what I did there- Goalpost and Bear Bryant). This model really spoke to me. It assists me by taking the emotion and other people’s opinions out of the decision-making process. Also, GolfCaddy4PLynch has this amazingly powerful and simple format that concisely captures why to own a stock. And DawsDaws for stock tracking format that made sense to me and at the right time. There are a lot of other posters as well that shape my thinking after reading their posts. So many that I cannot remember them all.
My goal over the next few newsletters is to flesh those expectations out for each of the stocks I own. So without further ado.
Portfolio Performance
YTD Returns
My Returns -24.32%
My Don't Trade Port -21.74%
S&P -5.24%
QQQ -8.75%
Portfolio Allocation
Ticker % of Port
DDOG 19.41%
MNDY 14.63%
S 13.48%
UPST 9.61%
NET 8.68%
BILL 8.38%
SNOW 7.78%
TQQQ 5.35%
AMPL 4.28%
ZS 2.40%
QQQ 0.09%
VOO 0.06%
CRWD
Cash 5.50%
Individual Stocks Performance
Ticker Yrly Return % chg for mth
DDOG -17.97% -17.97%
MNDY -31.55% -32.20%
S -6.26% -11.37%
UPST -27.95% -27.95%
NET -26.69% -26.69%
BILL -24.46% -24.46%
SNOW -4.54% -18.55%
TQQQ -26.88% -25.66%
AMPL -25.75% -25.75%
ZS -14.56% -19.99%
QQQ -8.75% -8.75%
VOO -5.54% -5.24%
CRWD -11.78%
Trading Activities
All percentages are in total portfolio values
Sold 10% of the Upstart
Sold out of CRWD from 7.79% position to 0%. Growth is slowing from spectacular to fantastic
Start (another) position in SNOW 3.4%
Add a little bit added to Monday
Added to S from 3.7% to 10.5%
Some other small misc stuff.
Individual Stock Reviews
DDOG (19.41%)
What they do: System monitoring (Observability) with a special focus on cloud apps
Expectation for F21Q4 (Thursday BB Feb 10)
Rev SQoQ YoY GM DBNRR ARR >100k
Below <297.5 <12% <64 74 <130% <2000
Meets ~308.5 12-16% 64-68.8 76 >130% 2000-2050
Exceeds >314 >16% >68.8 78 >2050
Important News
Next time
Notes: Also next time
MNDY (14.63%)
What they do: Workflow automation software for the end user. They call it a Work OS. Incredibly simple description of a complicated task.
S(13.48%)
What they do: System Security for the cloud. Seems to be displacing CRWD
UPST (9.61%)
What they do: AI automated unsecured loans origination moving into auto loans.
Note: Sold 10% this month
NET (8.68%)
What they do:
Expectation for F21Q4 (Thursday AC Feb 10)
Rev SQoQ YoY GM DBNRR ARR >100k
Below <187.5 <12% <64 74 <124% <1375
Meets ~193 12-16% 64-68.8 76 >124% 1375-1425
Exceeds >196 >16% >68.8 78 >1425
BILL (8.38%)
What they do: Cloud-based AP/AR automation and streamlining software. Don’t underestimate how many little details this process automates for $89 per month. Underappreciated back-end work that is not scary like S or CRWD. There is also no sexy with this.
SNOW (7.78%)
What they do: Cloud-based database system with edges for other data providers to interconnect.
Expectations for F21Q4 ( Wednesday, Mar 2)
Growth Current ?? Expectation ??
TQQQ (5.35%)
What they do: Triple leveraged QQQ ETF that I own in an account that is not easy to trade. Just being transparent
AMPL (4.28%)
What they do: They are a digital optimization company whatever that means. Their website does not provide great clarity into their strengths.
Notes: I have started the process of selling out of them. As much as I tried I cannot get excited about this company.
ZS (2.40%)
What they do: From the about us section you have no idea. It is a bunch of technobabble. It appears that they offer a zero-trust connection environment focused on cloud apps and their clients.
Expectations for F21Q4 (Thursday AC Feb 24)
Summing it all up
The what they do section was done off the top of my head, then I went to each site to validate what they did is what was being displayed. If you have not done that exercise, try it. It is very illuminating on what you think you know about what you are investing in. Or don’t know…uhm
My apologies for such a simple monthly review. They are a lot of work and I appreciate even more all of the board members that take the time to write/share their portfolios. Truly a gift. So for this month I am going for version 1 rather than version none. Please accept my apologies for all of the errors, missing information, and general stuff
Thank you for reading.
Live