Manpower Shortage

Australia raises immigration rates by 22% due to manpower shortage. The US should too.

https://www.stltoday.com/news/national/govt-and-politics/aus…

Declining birth rate is part of the problem. Should we encourage families to have more children and if so how?

  1. Better childcare
    Encourage employers to provide child care on site.
    Build child care centers supported by property taxes in school districts
    Make payments for day care or nannies tax deductible
    Give day care workers and nannies a $30K tax deduction
    Give stay at home parents a $10K tax deduction

  2. Direct rewards for having children
    Pay mothers $10K for having each baby
    Increase the annual deduction for dependent children to $10K each
    Make educating children more affordable with better tuition programs

What will be most effective?

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Manpower shortage equals labor power. Expect more money to flow into labor and less into capital.

Currently there is plenty of labor in Sub Saharan Africa. There is plenty of labor in Pakistan. Roughly 10 million now and a couple a million a year for 10 more years.

India has about 10 million now, but in 10 or 15 years it will be a labor sink.

China is labor sink now and will either export work or import labor starting now.

Add in climate refugeeism and we live in interesting times.

Cheers
Qazulight

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I think everyone agrees that immigration is the short term solution to the labor shortage.

The trick is to admit more with suitable job skills rather than unskilled labor that may be headed for support on welfare.

Immigration reform has been on the list at Congress forever. If ever they get their act together and do something. Its about time!!!

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The trick is to admit more with suitable job skills rather than unskilled labor that may be headed for support on welfare.

Therein lies the problem.

What qualifies as “suitable job skills” depends on who is defining what skills are needed for each category of job opened to a visa program.

If the desire is to get relatively low-skill nursing home aides, then there are lots of potential applicants who would qualify. If looking for people to work in a wafer fab, there will be FAR fewer qualified candidates.

2. Direct rewards for having children
Pay mothers $10K for having each baby
Increase the annual deduction for dependent children to $10K each

Oh boy. I see unintended consequences all over the place with this.

It’s one thing to bear a child, it’s quite another to raise them to be productive citizens.

IP,
who can say from experience that the first is much easier than the second, even after pushing out a 9.5 Lb and 9.25Lb child

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The trick is to admit more with suitable job skills rather than unskilled labor that may be headed for support on welfare.

The current policy works. We get immigrants that are illegal and can be exploited. That has been the plan for 50 years. Why do you think the border is porous?

Why do you think it has remained so for 7 different administrations while in that same time we have invaded 6 countries and fought a 20 year war in Afghanistan. At some point you must realize that it is not bad luck, poor planning or incompetence, it is the plan.

Cheers
Qazulight

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Taking a road trip from will county il to Yellowstone and other parks. Just left Cheyenne Wyoming and saw a sign for Wal-Mart freight handlers for $30.65 per hour. Talk about a labor shortage!
In other news we saw a tesla with N.Y. plates at a rest stop in mid Nebraska. No range anxiety there.
We drove all of Nebraska yesterday at 90+ degrees and encountered a transmission overheat issue at three pm on a Friday on labor day weekend. Thought we were sunk, but found a saviour on Saturday morning to service the transmission and get us back on the road. Kindness exists everywhere,but small towns seem to get an extra helping.
Wyoming has particularly desolate beauty in the high country. Sorry got off track.
$30 per hour for warehouse work and the tesla in the center of Nebraska were the On topic stuff.

Jk

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“Should we encourage families to have more children and if so how?”

Absolutely not.
If we want to have any chance of reducing climate change, we need fewer people - not more.

If it’s labor we need, there’s lots out there. We’ve been using other countries’ labor for years because they were cheap. If we need to have the labor here, bring those people who have been performing it overseas into the US.

Or are we just selfish?

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We’ve been using other countries’ labor for years because they were cheap. If we need to have the labor here, bring those people who have been performing it overseas into the US.

The reason the jobs went overseas was to take advantage of those lower labor costs (and other benefits, such as to access markets outside the US). Note: Market growth outside the US is far more robust than US market growth. Once the work needs to be done in the US, then it becomes very cost-effective to automate it as far as possible. This would eliminate many of the jobs needed.

Qaz,

Throw in the employers not paying their taxes and it is love.

What will be most effective?

OK. I’ll tackle that.

Encourage employers to provide child care on site.

Very effective. Possibly one of the most effective ideas for pre-school children. Parents are close in case of emergency or to facilitate breast-feeding of infants. Facility can be staffed to meet the basic employer’s staffing. No parental worries about getting to the child care on time.

Build child care centers supported by property taxes in school districts

Great for school age children. Potentially build it into existing schools so the children only move down the hall or to a different room on campus.

Make payments for day care or nannies tax deductible

Not as effective for low income families. Those who already pay little in income taxes would see little benefit.

Give day care workers and nannies a $30K tax deduction

Again has problems with low income workers, which is typical for day care and nanny work. Might be more effective as a much smaller direct payment to the worker.

Give stay at home parents a $10K tax deduction

Kind of doing that already with tax credits for children. And it only benefits people with enough income to use the deduction. Would not suggest this one.

Pay mothers $10K for having each baby

Not as a lump sum. Maybe a monthly payment for 2 or 3 or 5 years. I kind of like 5 or maybe 6 years, as that gets kids to school age.

Increase the annual deduction for dependent children to $10K each

Again, only benefits people with enough income to use the deduction. Not my preference.

Make educating children more affordable with better tuition programs

We already have free education from kindergarten through high school. So not sure what you’re talking about here. Maybe add free 1/2 day preschool for kids from 3 to kindergarten age. That’s one that would help new parents.

Basically, my approach would be more directed at the care itself rather than do anything through the tax system. My favorites are things like on site child care by employers or adding pre-school and after school programs on to existing schools.

–Peter

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Build child care centers supported by property taxes in school districts

The costs are too high without the wealthy chipping in which has to be on the federal level for all communities to benefit from childcare.

But that is now after the middle class has been taken out to slaughter by the supply side econ policies.

As demand side makes for a much wealthier middle class this becomes more affordable without raising taxes on the middle class or the wealthy. Meaning higher incomes pay more in taxes as the same rates.

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The trick is to admit more with suitable job skills rather than unskilled labor that may be headed for support on welfare.

The groundskeepers at the apartments next door take their break under a tree I pass on my daily walk. Their conversations are always in Spanish.

The guy from the company that repairs water leaks in basements for the condo complex has a Mexican flag tat on his arm, and, when he takes a call on his cell, he always speaks Spanish.

There is probably a reason the signs in the local Lowe’s are in both English and Spanish.

But, someone said, a few years ago, that Shinyland only wants immigrants from Norway. Shinyland may be a step up from Guatemala, but what possible incentive would a Norwegian have for moving here? Taxes may be lower here, but that’s because you have to pay for everything out of your own pocket.

Steve

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Having more welfare babies does not help very much. Encouraging more middle class babies is a plus. Their children are raised with better job skills.

A 30k tax deduction for child care workers makes it an attractive job for many. Especially for those filing joint returns. Encourages more middle class professionals (such as teachers) to consider child care positions.

“A 30k tax deduction for child care workers makes it an attractive job for many. Especially for those filing joint returns. Encourages more middle class professionals (such as teachers) to consider child care positions.”

Not sure that having teachers become child care workers is an optimal strategy…

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Not sure that having teachers become child care workers is an optimal strategy…

Sure, caring adults can do a good job for most of it.

But who would deny that professional training is an asset in that situation? Not all of them, but some in larger sites is a plus.

And if pay is competitive, I suspect that some teachers would be eager to work with younger children.

I used to serve on the board of a day-care center.

Day Care is a complex business. You need teachers and aides who are trained to work with young children, preferably with a degree in early education. Your director needs to be a genius at managing people and adapting schedules, in addition to having a degree in early education and courses in business management.

You can’t just throw in babysitters and expect it to work. You’ve got from 6 to 10 kids for every adult, and keeping that many kids happy and busy all day everyday isn’t easy.

On top of that, the building requirements for a daycare facility are stringent, and inspections may be unannounced. Throw in a few disgruntled parents and a few disabled kids, especially when divorce enters the picture, and it is not a business for the faint of heart.

And all of these wonderful people receive sub-par pay, because even with sub-par pay, daycare is really expensive.

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"Sure, caring adults can do a good job for most of it.

But who would deny that professional training is an asset in that situation? Not all of them, but some in larger sites is a plus.

And if pay is competitive, I suspect that some teachers would be eager to work with younger children."

Actually, my point was that we need more, not fewer teachers in their profession - not in the daycare profession.
Especially if you are trying to encourage higher birth rates.

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