12/19/24 It seems like the markets did not get worse since the finished slightly positive (S&P, Naz), but their early move up failed and resulted in a downside reversal that ended near to bottom of today’s trading range.
The ten-year treasury has been governor or market strength. When it goes down, the markets go up, particularly small caps. When it gets near 4.5%, markets get weak and when it goes above, markets get bad. We are now above 4.5%…
PCE comes out Friday morning and could impact the market either way. Seems like the Fed speak was basically saying 2 cuts in 2025 and probably later than you thought. The market needs to adjust to that new timeframe and it should not take too long to do that. Maybe just yesterday was enough and now we move along sideways for a bit.
This is the season for strong markets, but did the Fed play the Grinch this year?
We don’t want to trade on predictions and speculation, just the day-to-day action. Right now the action says be cautious.
Oh, remember when Warren Buffet started raising billions in cash and people laughed because he was missing the big rally? Maybe his Spidey sense was tingling.