Hello hello, I’ve been wanting to get into investing and seeing way too many different exchanges. I believe tracking market health like such is super important and learnign technical analysis etc.. following a lot of courses. I now started on “D-ETF” which is crypto, stocks and ETF’s in one, can anyone tell me if this is good or should I switch?
Welcome Investahh!
Personally, I have no experience with D-ETF nor have I heard much. There’s a ton of options out there, most of which can fill your needs. Especially if you are brand new to investing/trading.
I’d suggest you try to think, even write down, what your goals are to see if it fits. What I mean is think about if you plan to be an investor with longer term positions or a day-trader. Speed of transactions may matter more as a day trader. Since you are new, maybe a larger company with extensive educational support like Schwab or Fidelity may benefit you more. If you’re a nerd and code, maybe Schwab with Thinkorswim (TOS) access matters more. Personally, I use TOS and started decades ago when it was TD Ameritrade but is now Schwab. They use to allow free TOS accounts that you could even do paper trades on and that might be a good start (it may be a nominal amount now).
Right now, this is a good time to focus on learning and doing paper trades to get a feel for things. But understand, we are trying to secure a bottom in the market and it’s difficult. Not a time to just jump in the deep end, but a good time to focus on wading into the surf.
Welcome,
Lakedog
1 Like
I agree with Lakedog. Figure out what type of investor you would like to be and read books on that subject. Keep your investing small while you are working on who you are as an investor. Here is a Youtube channel that has lots of information. Watch the one on Sam Weinstein first.
1 Like
A lot of people do not like Jim Cramer, but he has the wisdom of age and experience. He recommends everyone put their first $10k or $20k into a low cost index fund/ETF. Protect yourself fist, then learn an approach and test your skills vs the S&P. If you have already done this, great start.
3/23/25 (Sun) - Waiting for FTD
I did not finish the Friday video this weekend, but here are my raw notes from articles and the video…
○ The major indexes reversed slightly higher Friday as President Donald Trump signaled “flexibility” on upcoming reciprocal tariffs.
○ Spotify (SPOT), Rubrik (RBRK), Netflix (NFLX), Okta (OKTA) and MercadoLibre (MELI) are growth stocks that are holding up relatively well, perhaps forging areas of resistance that could offer entries.
○ The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 1.2% in last week’s stock market trading, hitting resistance multiple times at the 200-day line. The S&P 500 index advanced 0.5%, still modestly below its 200-day. The Nasdaq composite lost 0.2%, well below its 200-day line. The small-cap Russell 2000 gained 0.6%. The Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) climbed 0.7%, but hit 200-day resistance like the Dow industrials.
○ Decliners significantly outnumbered advancers on both the New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq.
○ Russell Small Caps looking to have a death cross.
○ Trump threw out the word “Flexibility” when talking about reciprocal tariffs, this seemed to give the markets some hope.
• Friday Video with Webby
○ Webby came into the day short, and was rewarded with a gap down open, but the market started firming up and he sold shorts to be all cash. He says throughout his careers, he has found it easier to think when in all cash because you don’t look for confirmation bias on your long or short positions.
○ Friday was not an FTD, move up was too small.
○ Mike is worried that we might see a market like at the end of 2018. We had just been below the 200dma for a couple weeks and started to head up like we are on the verge of doing now. But then it turned into a 3-waves-down scenario.
○ Like then, you need to start buying if there is an FTD, but once it closes below the lows of the FTD, you get out. (and always scale in) Half of FTDs fail, but an FTD is still a good signal to have. It is not magic.
○ Mike’s 21dma approach. Once you close above it (after FTD), you can add more exposure. Then when the low stays above it, add a little more, then after 3 days of the low staying above it, then get more aggressive.
○ Friday was an upside reversal “in spirit”, but typically you want the low to undercut a significant area of support.
Monday Morning Update…
Dow Jones futures rose strongly Monday morning, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures. Trump tariffs remain in focus, with more reports that the Trump administration may not go ahead with some tariffs.
That has always seemed to be the one thing that could spark a solid FTD, but Trump is famous from being ambiguous and changing his mind.
1 Like
3/24/25 (Mon) Expose Yourself
IBD raised its exposure to 20-40% today on what some of them call an "FTD in Spirit". The move in the Naz and S&P were significant, but volume was below Friday’s big volume due to triple witching or quad witching, whichever it was. It is not hard to convince yourself that Friday was “false” data and instead compare to Thursday for an easy beat. FTD or not, exposure was raised and they were buying. Swing trader now has 5 positions. I think there were zero on Thursday.
The Naz gapped up and closed above the 18,000 mark, but it is still below the 200 and 50dma. However, for those with a glass that is half full, it closed above the 21dma, which Lake has showed is a buy switch from Market School. Also, the Naz cleared a 10 day consolidation…
The S&P closed above the 200dma and the 21dma for a “buy switch confirmation”, if there is such a thing.
The small cap Russell 2000 soared 2.6%.
I am biased toward being optimistic and was buying back some of my old non-IBD positions today and the last few days, but my IBD exposure is only 7% so I need to add some tomorrow and get to 20%, there are enough options and early buys to do that.
But remember, the market is all happy today because Trump said he might not tariff critical items like cars and pharma. He could flip-flop back, or, this could be a sign he does care about the market as a personal success measure and he will be more measured himself. Will should certainly find out more on 4/2.
1 Like
3/25/25 - I think I can, I think I can
Naz up a bit, getting close to 200dma. Nice to stay up after that big move Monday. S&P closes above 200dma for second day, in fact, the low stayed above the line. Small caps give some back.
There is still doubt and uncertainty around April 2, Trump seems to oscillate to keep everyone off balance. Hard to see a scenario where we want to be heavily invested before that day, but it could happen.
IBD:
Going forward, a steady diet of higher-volume gains and lower-volume declines for the major stock indexes would be just what the doctor ordered, at least for stock market bulls. That would be a sign that new money is coming in from the sidelines.
This isn’t good Nasdaq below 18000 S&P below the 200 day. This could be a bad day.
3 Likes
3/26/25 Auto Tariffs from Trump, cause market to dump
Monday was or was not a FTD, regardless, the taking market undercut the “FTD” gap up bar, thus nullifying the FTD if it was an FTD. Got it? The Naz decline was on high volume, even higher than triple witching Friday.
As Webby said that Bill said, “There’s the quick and the dead”. IBD advises to cut your losses quickly for recent acquisitions.
Interestingly, Microsoft (MSFT) has canceled AI data center projects in the U.S. and Europe, TD Cowen analysts said, the latest warning sign of an AI capital spending peak. Just another worry to overcome.
Trump announced 25% tariffs on non-US made cars or non-US made parts installed in Mexico and Canada. This is independent of any reciprocal tariffs coming 4/2. In my mind, it is psychologically easier to have high cash now and jump in on 4/2 late if there is good news, rather than to try and sell fast on 4/2 if the news is worse than expected.
1 Like
Here is what Webby had to say on Twitter.
Around 50% of Follow Through Days fail & that’s 100% Okay, they still give a huge edge!
A close below the low of the FTD kills most rally attempts Now we need a new FTD or the low to get above the 21-day for 3 consecutive days, IMHO
Patience
2 Likes
3/31/25 3PM. Upside reversals on S&P and Naz. Is it real. Should one buy before the tariff news? Will the tariff news be a buying event because all the bad expectation are in. Should I close out my SARK?
1 Like
4/1/25 - Waiting On Tariffs.
Day two of attempted rally, Naz up 0.9%, closed at top of range decent volume. S&P up 0.4%, ok volume.
I just heard the tariff announcements are after market close on tomorrow, but that can easily change. Makes it hard to make a big move when the news comes out.
IBD wisdom of the day…
Now is the time to be on the lookout for a follow-through day. Some of the more powerful follow-through days — when at least one index scores a big percentage gain in higher volume — have occurred between the fourth day and seventh day of a rally attempt.
At some point, new leadership will emerge beyond the gold and insurance groups. Until then, wait for the market tide to start flowing positive again. Follow-through days have done a great job of flagging stock market bottoms in the past. If we get one, and leadership is still light, it doesn’t bode well for a sustained rally. But if a follow-through day comes with plenty of new leadership, it means the rally could have legs.
Confirmed rallies often fail, especially after a violent sell-off and in a headline-driven market. The 200-day moving average could be resistance for the S&P 500 and other key indexes.
4/2/25 - Trump spoke, the market broke.
Markets looked good at the end of the day, Naz + 0.8% and S&P up 0.5%. After the tariff announcements, the futures tanked. Afterhours: SPY down 3.46%, QQQ down 4.38%, SQQQ up 13.2%. Crude oil futures sank nearly 3%. GLD up 1.33%. IBIT down 5.14%.
If this holds, the attempted rally will be undercut and over. Even if it’s not, it is hard to imagine a successful FTD anytime soon. More likely to have a second wave down.
In a worst-case scenario, earnings downgrades could push (the S&P 500 tracking index ETF) SPY another 5%-10% lower, invert the yield curve, and send volatility (VIX) past 30, Arnim Holzer, global macro strategist at Easterly EAB, wrote in a note sent to IBD.
The baseline tariffs will kick in on April 5, with the higher reciprocal tariffs starting April 9.
1 Like
Actually, we already had a second wave down started on Monday when we set a lower low. Not too terribly surprising. It is a bit surprising that the market reacted so harshly to the tariffs. Guess there was a lot more hope for “gentle” tariffs. Regardless, it sometimes helps to keep an eye on the big picture. This is a chart who’s principle is from a chart Tom Bowley likes to show. It is a 25 year-weekly SPX.
It is generated by a trendline connecting the lower two major lows, then duplicating the line so the slope is the same for two lines to fit above and in the middle. I show it just to keep perspective. The big picture often helps keep it from feeling like the world is totally falling. We are still well within a channel and a pull back to 5300-5400 isn’t that crazy.
A little closer look at possible support areas.
A daily SPX chart. There are multiple areas of potential support, especially in the 5350-5450 zone. More a curiosity than anything, but the PPO was forming a bullish divergence through today. Likely will be obliterated by tomorrows action, but we’ll see. Point is simply, keep your head together and keep calm. It’s stocks that climb up the stairs and then jump out the window…you don’t need to follow them.
Lakedog
2 Likes
Keep calm? I have been waiting for this. The IBD method has kept me out of the market. It seems to be working so far.
3 Likes
While I have been through multiple significant corrections and worse, I still find it awkward in timing reentry. I’m really interested to see how market school tactics work in getting back in timely. It will also be interesting to see how those tactics work with the current world and so many external influences.
Not surprised by the morning drop, but I’m surprised by the relative stability of movement (or lack thereof) in the first 20 minutes. Was anticipating a long, low wick but will see.
Lakedog
2 Likes
Same here, but it had me move out in time. I do have those puts written but they are deep in the money and should be ok. The only one that worries me is Meta but we will see. I have been doing a few trial posiitions that all failed but kept them very small so the loss has not been big. I am down 9 percent so far. If they get me back in, and I am watching every day, than this will be a big win.
1 Like
I believe this is where IBD (Market School) shines and makes you the money. If it gets you out before a big decline, then you are treading water while others drown. Once you get back in, you are compounding from a higher level than those that stayed. If you just break even with the S&P for 5 years, but miss a 20% decline and get back in, say, 5% above the bottom, then you win.
IBD and an FTD day on March 11, 2009 (Or 12th), but that was the bottom, there was a huge capitulation day one or two days before that. In 2022, there were several failed FTDs on the three waves down, but finally, we got the good one and made lots of money. They always like to remind us to scale in on and FTD because 40-50% fail.
One day, I may have to set aside a chunk of money and use their 0-100% scale to move in and out of SPY. Maybe I will get tired of the time it takes to do individual stock research in the IBD way.
That’s the beauty of it. Bill never cared about anything but the market. He didn’t use secondary derivatives. Didn’t care about bonds or gold. He said the market tells you everything you need to know. IBD was already at 0-20% before this “crash”. How did it know? Because everyone was already selling, and you can’t fight that. If tariffs cause a recession or depression, IBD already has you out.
1 Like
Exactly Pete, If it drops 10 percent and you get in withing 9 percent that is still a win on the ones who rode it down and up.
4/6/25 - Escalator up, Elevator down.
Nikkei was down 6% at open (our Sunday night), trading stopped with circuit breakers. Naz futures down 5.15% around 8:30PM Sunday).
Those following IBD with all or a major part of their funds are resting easy as they should be 100% cash.
Webby showed the 1987 crash so we could see the volatility after the big down days…
Look how hard that was to trade. With those huge ranges, you can’t do something like buy as a stock is going above the 50dma with a stop loss below 50dma. You would need 15-20% stop losses to keep from getting immediately stopped out (say with a 5% loss). Unless Trump pulls a rabbit of certainty out of his hat, we should expect to see this.
And Aug 2011, followed by a lot of “chop and slop”
Now, after that second time Naz went above 200dma for good in Jan 2012, then the daily bars get tighter and the next good run started. It took over 4 months to get there. Also, want to see all that gap up and down days stop.
Next they looked the Naz at the beginning of another big down market on 8/21/2015 and then fast forward to 1/7/2016 to see the aftermath. Look at where I have day 3 of the fall circled. Webby points out that people probably thought “it must be over by now” and tried do buy on that, but if they did, they got crushed the next day and probably had to capitulate at the bottom (guesses I).
Definitely worth watching the first 16m of the video.
Nowhere To Hide In Sea Of Red; TJX, DR Horton, Ollie’s In Focus | Stock Market Today
Update 10:51 PM - Hong Kong down 10%.
1 Like