Market Health Tracking

Investing Strategies Technical Trader's Sanctuary
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1/27/25 - Chinese Black Swan Spotted On Wall Street.

DeepSeek released a powerful artificial intelligence program that it claims cost just $5.6 million to build, marking a possible paradigm shift from the massive levels of investment by technology industry giants in energy and AI infrastructure.

This freaked out shareholders of AI hardware and energy supplier companies, cause panic selling and 15-30% losses in big names. On the flip side of the coin, enterprise software firms that integrate AI were lifted with hopes of cheaper AI that will improve the bottom lines (e.g. CRM, NOW, HUBS) Others like META and SPOT made nice moves up as money rotated quickly.

The Naz finished down 3.1% at 19,341, marking its biggest drop in a single session since the 3.6% plunge suffered on Dec. 18 and also finished below its 50-day line for the first time in just over a week.

Gains in non-tech areas helped buffer the S&P 500’s slide as the large-cap index fell 1.5%. The Russell 2000 lost 1%, or only a third of the Nasdaq’s decline. And the 30-stock Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied nearly 0.7%. Volume was up on major markets resulting in a new distribution day, that replaced one that dropped due to age today.

The S&P managed to stay above the 6000 mark, but the naz finished near the lows of the day.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year bond yield fell nearly 10 basis points to 4.52%. That was the lowest close since 4.49% on Dec. 18.

This was painful for some investors, and some found out the hard way that triple leverage and daily single-stock ETFs (2x) can crush your portfolio pretty fast.

This is NOT 2007! There is no systemic disintegration of the economy and the markets. Banks will not go under.

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Don’t think anyone is really thinking that. Futures aren’t bad. But wait!! Powell is up to bat tomorrow and Wednesday. Will he have more athletes tongue?? Is his foot still stuck in his mouth?? That worries me more, at least for the short run. I’m a bull looking for the best play. Sometimes that’s a call credit spread.

Lakedog

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1/29/25 - Calm trading with inside days.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished 0.5% lower, as their trading ranges held inside the prior day’s highs and lows (inside day). That’s a sign volatility is returning to normal after Monday’s rout in AI-related stocks. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 held above their 50-day moving average. Both indexes also avoided a distribution day because volume fell on the Nasdaq as well as the New York Stock Exchange.
○ The Nasdaq 100 index, down 0.2%, also held above its 50-day line. The Russell 2000 small-cap index lost less than 0.3% but has met resistance at the 50-day moving average. The S&P MidCap 400 index lost 0.4% and closed slightly below its 50-day average.
○ Despite the stock market’s weakness Wednesday, a few high-rated stocks extended a trend of breakouts from proper bases
○ Stocks traded lower Wednesday morning and fell some more when the Fed released its policy statement at 2 p.m. ET. Yet, the major indexes came off session lows as Fed Chair Jerome Powell spoke to reporters.
○ Fed holds, things look good, will remain data driven.

“The glide path is still in favor of a soft landing. However, the uncertainty around tariffs and labor supply will keep the Fed on its toes,” Sonola said. “Inflation and inflation expectations cannot be taken for granted, and a Fed that preaches data dependence will be reluctant to front-run ever-changing policy. It’s looking more like a wait-and-see Fed.”

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1/30/25 -

SPY closes above 50dma for fourth day, with the low of the last 3 days staying above it. Naz closes above 50dma for third day, with one day low above and maybe today’s low above it or on it. Volume below average recently.

I am seeing a number of gap ups and breakouts on good earnings.

1/31/25 - market starts the day up, but sharply reverses at 1:20 PM. Was that the news on tariffs going into effect tomorrow? S&P still above 21dma, but Naz stops right on it. But both still above 50dma.

Volume on Naz was higher, so we should see another distribution day.
Finishing below the 21dma on the Monday close will be a sign of weakness.

Update:
Can you guess when tariffs were announced Friday.

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Yes, Friday’s sell off is set to continue Monday morning as futures are down as of 10:30…

Dow Jones futures tumbled 1.4% vs. fair value. S&P 500 futures dived 1.95% and Nasdaq 100 futures plunged 2.5%

Nothing technical that happened Friday really matters now. Above 50dma stuff will be eliminated unless cooler heads prevail before Monday. Maybe at noon Canada waives the white flag and the market bounces, or maybe they, MX and China stick by their tiit-for-tat promises.

Here is Webby’s wisdom from the video (that I did not finish yet)

○ In event periods like this (e.g. 9/11), you can expect about 6 months of volatile moves. You can also expect the moves will start to get smaller as people get use to the news events.

○ Webby “will dial my positions sizes back, spreading out more with groups that is, don’t be concentrated in a single group like AI. your expectations should be lower on Monday”

○ Around the 15m market of video, Webby steps through the 1987 crash, and then the COVID crash. A good segment to watch.

○ Used GEV as an example of a bounce off the bottom. It is just making it back to a 50% retracement and Webby says you need to see it hold above 50% retracement before you have confidence.

Me:
Fasten your seatbelts, its going to be a bumpy ride.

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2/3/2025 - Opposite day

Friday started hot and reversed down. Monday started down and reversed up.

The reality of tariffs was a blow to the gut for the morning markets. Later, Mexico made some promises and Trump put up a 30-day delay. Afterhours, Trump and Trudeau came to an agreement and those tariffs were delayed a month. This caused the Dow Jones futures rose 0.5% vs. fair value, while S&P 500 futures gained 0.6%. Tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 0.8% vs. fair value after the tariff news.

Nasdaq composite fell as much as 2.5% but ended the day just 1.2% lower. Although the reversal was encouraging, the Nasdaq still closed below its 50dma. The S&P 500’s reversal was better. The index narrowed its loss to 0.8% and finished the day just above its 50-day line. Small caps got whacked, down 1.3% and farther below its 50dma.

Distribution day #8 was added to the Naz count (due to increased volume) and the S&P remained at 5 days. This is getting to a dicey level. Recommended exposure remains at 60-80% thanks to the upside reversal. But they hint you may want to be closer to 60%

In my view, Trump’s approach to negotiation is to cause chaos, that that is tough for the markets. He does not bother to negotiate for a while before he drops the tariff hammer, he drops the hammer and then lets people come to him. Like it or not, it is a very interesting change from the months and years of negotiations that go on when everyone “plays by the rules”. Seems like the markets need to expect this for months to come. He will be encouraged by his recent success and keep doing it.

On Tuesday, it will be a good sign if the stock market can follow up Monday’s positive reversal with at least modest gains.

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2/4/25 - Basketball season and the markets rebound.

Yesterday the market started coming back when Mexico kowtowed to Trump, the markets reversed. Afterhours Canada also came to an agreement and the tariffs were delayed a month. The futures rose. Today the markets had a nice bump up and closed at their highs.

Naz closed above 50dma. S&P stayed above 50 and moved above 21dma. IWM small caps still below 50dma.

IBD

Headed into Tuesday, the Nasdaq composite showed eight distribution days, with five of those days showing declines of at least 0.9%. Of the S&P 500’s five distribution days, three showed declines of at least 1.1%…

The stock market rally remains in a trading range, with the Nasdaq especially choppy, just above the 50-day line…

Investors should be cautious about new buys in this environment. Early entries are especially useful in choppy markets. Avoid being too concentrated in a particular sector or theme.

2/6/25: Decent day.
S&P and NAZ finished above 50dmas for third day in a row. S&P low above it last two days and Naz low above it for first time today. Russell was rejected by 50dma.

Labor Department’s January jobs report come out Fri AM.

IBD words of wisdom…

It’s important to monitor positions that are acting out of character and sell any stocks that trigger sell rules, like a sharp break of the 10-week moving average.

Fourth-quarter earnings season is in full swing, which can lead to big gap-downs, so ensure you have a sufficient profit cushion to withstand those potential declines. On the upside, take at least some profits at the 20%-25% profit level. That’s a sure way of compounding gains over the long term.

The stock market rally is showing some positive action, especially among leaders. But with the market still in a range and subject to headline swings, investors shouldn’t get too excited.

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2/7/25 Third Friday Downside Reversal…

○ The Nasdaq composite opened higher, but ended Friday down 1.4% and suffered a weekly decline of 0.5%. It ended the day back below its 50-day moving average, a disappointment after it retook the benchmark on Tuesday. The tech-heavy index is now up just 1.1% for the year so far.
○ The S&P 500 suffered a daily drop of 1%, but managed to hold above its 50-day line and its 21-day exponential moving average. The benchmark index surrendered just 0.2% for the week and is up 2.5% in 2025.
○ Small caps were also bitten by the bears, with the Russell 2000 ending the session down 1.2%
○ Investor’s Business Daily is holding its recommended exposure level at the 60%-to-80% level for now due to the S&P 500 holding above its 50-day line.
○ The stock market remains choppy and headline driven. It’s one of the most challenging environments for active investors. There’s enough strength to lure traders in and enough weakness to shake them out.
○ While daily charts are useful to identifying specific buy points, it helps to have a longer-term perspective. Use weekly charts to avoid getting too giddy or glum about the market or individual stocks.
○ Reddit (RDDT), and Leaderboard stocks HubSpot (HUBS) and AppLovin (APP) are among the noteworthy firms reporting next week. HOOD, SHOP, DASH
○ Look at the red/blue volume bars on Naz chart. Most of the red (down) volume bars are higher than the blue vol bars.

Friday Video with Webby
○ Webby is seeing a trend of downside reversals on Friday. Last two were followed by a bad Monday (starting with a gap down), so what this time?
○ Webby points out that on the previous two Mondays, Naz gapped down below 50dma, and that makes you expect the market will keep going lower, but that fact that it didn’t is a sign of strength. (I will note that last week we went down on weekend tariff announcements and then they were delayed 30 days, so a rebound seems very normal to me).
○ This has been a chop-fest, so Swing Trader is “very light in the market” (only 4 50% positions) and Webby “put on the brakes in a big way” (he is a very active trader)
○ It would be “normal and natural” to go lower.
○ SPY looks better, holding at 600 level and low still above 50dma. And, if SPY gets above Friday’s high and that $609.07 high of the base, then Webby would be ready to “punch the gas”. It is ok to “turn on a dime. Bill was very flexible”
○ Financials are one of the best-looking areas out there.
○ META seems to be a place where institutions are hiding out.
○ Webby still watching UAL as a high-tight-flag.
○ EXPE strong gap up on earnings. Don’t buy here, wait for it to consolidate for a week or two and give you something to trade against. A shakeout with upside reversal would be perfect using the lows of that day. Market too weak to take a chance now. Travel in general is doing well.
○ IOT: forming a base. This is the area where we would typically see a handle form. Very solid sales growth and EPS growth looks good too.
○ Webby admits he is a “Debbie downer today” because the markets can’t stay above their 21dma.
○ The Webby RSI confirms the obvious, we are in a “chop zone”

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2/12/25 - Upside reversal and big earnings pops after hours.

The CPI numbers came out hot and dragged the market down while lifting interest rates. But the bulls work up and created a nice upside reversal day by closing.

The S&P 500, down 1.1% in the early going, failed to streak into the plus column. But it closed down nearly 0.3%. the S&P 500 also refused to pierce 6,000, perhaps a psychological level in the stock market today. It touched the 50dma, but then reversed up and closed above it.

The Naz turned an early loss of more than 1.2% into a tiny 6-point gain, or up less than 0.1%. More important than the gain, obviously, is the way in which the tech-clad index climbed bullishly off its intraday low and closed close to session highs. It also managed to close just above the 50dma.

Big earnings moves up: APP +29%, BROS +25%, Hood +15%, and down: TTD -23%, RDDT -13%. I wonder if APP is stealing business from TTD (digital ads). UPST up 32% after earnings release in the morning.

PPI Thursday before market open

CyberArk Software (CYBR), Datadog (DDOG), Howmet Aerospace (HWM), SharkNinja (SN) and Deere (DE) are due early Thursday.

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2/13/25 - strong day, recommended exposure bumped up to 80-100%.

The Dow Jones index advanced 0.8%, while the S&P 500 moved up 1% and the Nasdaq rallied 1.5%. All three are just shy of new highs. Meanwhile, the small-cap Russell 2000 index rose 1.2%, still below a downtrending 50-day moving average.

SPY low was above 21 and 50dma, same for Naz.

Once Trump said the reciprocal tariffs would be applied after some study, the market felt relief and took off. I think everyone is thinking we are safe this weekend and won’t need to sell of Friday. I had planned to wait on buys until Monday, but with this news I increased my exposure.

Friday morning, January retail sales report

Nvidia stock rose 3.2% to 135.29 on Thursday, closing above the 50-day line for the first time since diving 17% on the Jan. 27 sell-off in AI hardware stocks.

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2/14/25 - market gave us some flowers and chocolates.

S&P and Naz near the top of a consolidation and finished at highs of the day and week.

Ini the video, Webby notes Friday looks like a setup day (finished top of the daily range, so we would expect it to go higher next day). He says it would be normal and natural to breakout from here, and he would like to see a break-away gap that does not look back. He does note that it looked the same on 1/23, but failed to breakout then.

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It was good to see that we broke the “Friday-sell-off” trend, and going into a 3-day weekend no less.

The QQQE (equal weight) closed at a new high, which is seen as showing a broadening in the market. Russell 2000 slipped 0.1% Friday. The index met resistance at its 50-day moving average (looks like it still want to see rate cutes before making an investable run.

The Empire State manufacturing survey drops Tuesday, the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey comes Friday and the minutes from January’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting drop Wednesday.

Some raw notes from the Friday Video with Webby

○ This week was a test. We had data (e.g. inflation, tariff, etc) that would have been interpreted either way depending on how investors felt, the felt positive. The S&P tested the 50dma, stayed above 6000 and closed above the December highs.
○ Pete notes that Trump threatened all hell breaking out if all the hostages were not released, and the market still did not sell off on Friday.|
○ This is what a setup looks like before you launch higher. If we can’t hold Thursday’s low, that would be a concern. Nice that it was a flat day, which gives stocks a chance to digest.|
○ Webby mentioned again that he uses ARKK as a way to trade heat, because that is the type of stock in the fund and they are too high octane for most people and himself to trade individually.
○ It was good to see that we broke the Friday-sell-off trend, and going into a 3-day weekend no less.|
○ He would be wary of the AI-energy plays until they have had more time.|
○ Institutional investors are clearly buying META and AMZN and clearly selling down MSFT, GOOGL, and TSLA.|
○ KWEB broke out from a double bottom Friday.
○ APP: can’t really do anything with it here. If you are just buying it here, it becomes tricky. Webby hopes it tightens up (flag) and gives him something to trade (as a Swing Trader).

TBD: Webby’s TA charts

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2/19/25 - small moves up, with turbulence below the surface.

Naz and SPY were down early, but like yesterday, ended up at new highs. Both have had 4 consecutive days of lows staying above 21dma. RSP looking to breakout and QQEW in a breakout buy zone. Small caps continue to act poorly, except small cap value has quietly done well this year, up about 7%

Restaurant and Software stocks took some hits. WING reported poor growth and outlook and lost 13.4%. Is this what dragged CAVA below the 50dma with a 10.42% decline on high volume? Or was it that FOUR also tanked. FOUR competes with TOST, so TOST was also off. SHAK showed some pain too. CAVA has earnings in 6 days.

AXON got crushed 16% on news it was breaking up with a competition, earnings are in 10 days. Software stock also got hit in the 4% range: HUBS, WIX, NET, TEAM, TWLO, TTD. PLTR was off 10% and ANET off 6%

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2/20/25 - markets down, but hot stocks down a lot more.

Stock market leaders in trouble include Axon Enterprise (AXON), Klaviyo (KVYO), Reddit (RDDT), Royal Caribbean (RCL), Samsara (IOT) and Shift4 (FOUR).

Recommended exposure down to 60-80%.

We have had a lot of 2-3 day “corrections”, is this just another?

Know your risk mitigation rules and follow them

Update: Naz futures show fair value open up 109 points. I would much rather see one last day where we go down 1% in the morning, but get a strong upside reversal and finish up for the day. But you can’t always get what you want.

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2/21/25 - Downside reversals, below 50dma, closing at weekly lows.

Yesterday I updated saying the futures were looking up, but I would rather see the market start low and end up. The opposite happened, we reversed to finish at lows for the day and the week.

Really, nothing but bad news chart-wise. Naz below 50dma, S&P came to rest on 50dma (that’s the only good news). Russell 2000 below 200dma.

Recommended Exposure down to 40-60%. (Webby is all cash with some inverse ETFs)

Palantir stock tumbled 14.9% for the week, to just below its 21-day line. Axon stock crashed 24.9%, wrecking a breakout in spectacular fashion. Cava stock dived nearly 18% to a six-month low. AppLovin stock gave up almost 19%, back into the top of a prior base. Reddit plunged 15.3% after selling off 12.8% in the prior week. These stocks all had huge runs over the past year, and may need to take a break. Among growth ETFs, the Innovator IBD 50 ETF (FFTY) plunged 12.15% last week, tumbling from a two-year high Tuesday morning to undercut its 50-day line. ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) dived 10.15%, plunging from Tuesday’s multiyear high to undercut its 50-day line by the end of the week

Friday Video With Webby, my raw show notes…

Only positions Webby has right now are inverse SPYs and QQQs.
○ One textbook outcome on Monday would be to gap up, but then roll over and take out Friday’s lows. If we gap up on some news Monday, Webby would “take that opportunity to lighten up”.
○ Webby reminds us that as individual investors, we can go to cash, but mutual funds and the like usually have a mandate to be invested, and that is why we see shifts into defensive sectors in times like these.
○ It would be “normal and natural” for the S&P to test the 2/3/25 low.
○ If the market were to turn around, and META moves back above the $700 level then “that would be one I would take and it would be a rebound of the 21dma” (Webby). Later he notes that COST chart is even better because it held the 21dma.
○ QQQE did stop at the 21dma, so that is a tiny bit of positivity.
○ In Webby’s ideal world, we would have a horrible gap down on Monday, he would close out his shorts and go long. But he admits, the market does not listen to him.
○ Bill used to tell Webby, “You need to bend like a tree in the wind”
○ NVDA has a very weak setup. A base on top of a base would be strong. A base next to a base would be ok. But this current base is really a base that went below the low of the base it is next to, and that is a very weak setup.
○ Webby notes that the CRM chart may look like a double bottom, but it was really a cup with handle that is now breaking down, and that makes it a very vulnerable chart.
○ Using the FNGS chart, they talk about what happens when the 50dma is broken. It often results in a period of digestion. They set the date to May of 2024 and then point out that if you just wait until the lows of the day are above the 21dma (for 3 days), then you don’t have to try and be a hero and guess when it is really turning around.
○ TW is breaking a downtrend. Webby said he would have bought this one, but he just wanted a clear mindset and would rather be in cash right now.
○ The weekly candles for S&P and NAZ show closing at the lows of the week, so “that means they want to go lower”
○ The Bob-Marley ATR charts don’t look bad, still in the green area.
We want to get back above the 21dma for 3 days, and then we know we are probably out of the woods.

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2/24 - we appear to be getting an up side reversal in the indexes. Look at stocks like SHOP and CRWD for 50dma support. COST, SPOT and SE found support at 21dma. VIK held 50dma on two tests last two days, now up. APP back above 21dma, while HOOD, RDDT, CRDO, ALAB are well below 50dma.

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Help me out here. Not arguing, looking to understand and be clear. So my impression of “upside reversal” would be that of a change in a down-trending stock or index, now showing upward movement. From IBD:

An upside reversal occurs when a stock has been trending downward within a base, then finds support at a key area and closes toward the top of its range for that day or week.

Current indexes:

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Neither of today’s candles appear to be positive movement. Both are almost down Marubuzo candles. Sure, they would be more negative should they close on the low, but it’s darn close. Sure, there is always individual ticker candles that are good, but the indices speak more for the market. Help me understand why you say there are upside reversal candles, please.

Lakedog

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We are both right. As the 5-minute chart of Naz below shows, we bottomed out around 10:30, then reversed up for a few hours. I think I posted around 2PM and that was when it was actually reversing back down again. Then sold off quickly and finished at bottom of the daily range, which is a bad thing. I was hoping we would keep going up strong and close at the top of the range.

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2/24/25 - reversal of a reversal

Futures were up a bit and we opened up, then reversed down. But around 10:30, we reversed back up and I had hope we would keep going and finish strong, thus [possibly] ending the decline. But it was not to be. After 1PM or so we reversed back down and the SPY and NAZ finished pretty much at lows. The IWM did not fare better and is below its 200dma. Naz moved lower after falling below 50dma on Friday and SPY made its first stop below the 50dma

Finishing at lows, like we did Friday, gives us the expectation of more lows.

IBD:

Notice on a daily chart how the S&P 500 closed very low in its intraday range for the second straight session. That had not happened before in 2025. Bullish opens that turn into bearish closes also affirm the questionable health of a stock market uptrend.

I saw that Trump reiterated that the MX and CA tariffs would go into effect March 4, and that seemed to help the mark decline a little faster at the end of the day.

Some words of wisdom from IBD:

don’t forget this piece of IBD research on the biggest stock market winners: Once a true leader has finally topped, the average correction is 72%.

When a growth stock leader shows exceptional action, it tends to break out of an excellent base, climb to new highs, and not touch its 21-day line for weeks, if not months. Eventually it cools off, then tests support at this short-term technical level as some traders exit the stock on its excellent run.

Yet the maxim of buy on fundamentals and technicals, but sell on technicals still rings true in 2025.

IBD SwingTrader service currently has zero positions.

In the video, they pointed out a lot of upside reversals: BROS, MNDY, ROKU, DUOL, DOCS, TEAM. Would be nice to see the indexes do this. Webby and Justin like reversals because they create clear stop-loss point for traders.

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It’s common under these circumstances to have an initial trial at hope and gap-up, but with a subsequent decline. The big boys tend to play in the later half and that makes such a big difference in the overall. And the fat lady don’t sing until the big boys declare where they stand.

Nobody, but nobody knows what the market is going to do, but a couple thoughts.

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It’s a mess. December 18th was a pronounced day, with a greater than 3.5% drop. We’ve been in a chop since, with an island reversal gap-up and down. Which, actually, we haven’t totally filled. It often takes months to absorb such moves so personally, I expect another 2 weeks at least and likely 6-8 weeks of this movement. The hard part is the unclear support levels; wouldn’t shock me if we hit 515 or 500. But yes, could go straight up from here (no, I’m not filling the portfolio at this moment).

The VIX is also up, which speaks to more caution and await further definition.

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Personally, I’d take any “up” day with a grain of salt until proven with follow through. But I’m old and neurotic about my capital.

Lakedog

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Full disclaimer, haven’t seen any video so can’t respond specifically but looking quickly at the first couple concerns me.

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Both BROS and MNDY are encouraging by not being terrible. They showed later day stability. BROS in particular show upturn in PPO and RSI (MNDY flat) but I would wait personally until it clears at least the start of today’s open. ROKU shows more promise with rising levels in the afternoon.

I’m sounding like a total Bear, which I’m not. Bought several positions today including PGR and AI.

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Bought at 270 with a limit order. A little discouraging finish, but that’s what tight stops are for. AI was a Bear Call Credit Spread. Nothing fantastic, but point is, this is a volatile market and you have to proceed knowing your risks. Spreads give me a bit more control on my risks and are predominantly what I’ll be playing for a while.

Was trying to ignore, but gotta make a comment. This is very true, but understand, it’s also a declaration that you expect turmoil and a good chance for failure. Thjey are saying they assume volatility and moves against positions. Can’t disagree with that at the current time.

Lakedog

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2/25/25 - 200 Day Magnetic Attraction

The Naz is 3.7% away from 200dma, seems like it wants to go there. S&P is a little better at only 4.3% above. RSP and QQQE came to rest on the 50dma. IWM closed below 200dma for third day.

All my upside reversals got stopped out below their 50dma’s. Lakedog is no doubt right and we will likely see a lot of chop unless NVDA really surprised everyone big (one way or the other). I keep seeing numerous stocks finding support at 50dma, until they fall below it the next day. NVDA holding at 200dma. Ugly.

Recommended exposure still 40-60%, which surprises me.

IBD says

Investors should have minimal-to-modest exposure. Being all in cash is perfectly valid. Many growth leaders may take months to recover, with some likely due for a long hibernation. Right now is a time to preserve your physical and mental capital.

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