Measuring industrial growth on the state level

Investment Analysis Clubs Macro Economic Trends and Risks
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I am sure there are several ways to do this.

One is to know if your state is running a surplus.

Connecticut is running $1 billion budget surplus. We are a small state of around 4 million people. We are a major manufacturing state.

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"Tax collections have improved and pushed Connecticut’s budget surplus to $4 billion, but the state budget still relies heavily on federal funding and without it the state would end up running a ‘sizeable operating deficit.’

“The Office of Policy and Management told state Comptroller Natalie Braswell Wednesday that if not for the use of the one-time federal funds of $560 million this year and $1.2 billion next year, Connecticut would be running a budget deficit.”

The CT Mirror notes that the major part of the ups and downs in the state budget comes from taxes of people and businesses in the financial sector.

"For decades, Connecticut rode a fiscal rollercoaster fueled by affluent Fairfield County and its robust financial services sector. When income tax receipts from capital gains and dividends were high, the state spent big. When times got tough, Connecticut borrowed


"There would be [beginning in 2017] new caps on spending and borrowing. But the linchpin was the ‘volatility adjustment,’ a provision that forced officials to ignore a portion of tax receipts tied to investment earnings and quarterly business filings.

“Simply put, when these revenues pour in above expectations, the funds have to be saved, not spent. And when the budget reserve was filled, the funds had to be used to pay down pension debt.”

This CBIA (Connecticut Business and Industry Association) report has a graph on page 6 showing manufacturing output by year:

2010 $30.7 billion
2016 $25.7
2019 $30.1
2021 $30.0

DB2

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Not sure how we got from $4 billion to a deficit based on those two amounts being removed. Some reporter. LOL

There are the politics of not giving the money back as tax cuts. That might be the thumb on the scale.

Most of what is left out of the math is we have military contractors. If you take away the military contractors we would have a deficit.

Those military contractors are heavy industry. From mom and pop machine shops to a few much larger manufacturers.

The mom and pop machine shops are not small stuff. Any of them can can move to produce anything and in doing so scale up tremendously as a major corporation. There are between 1000 and 2000 mom and pop tool companies in CT.

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In 2020, the manufacturing sector in the United States accounted for almost 11 percent of the nation’s Gross Domestic Product.3 days ago

In CT that figure is 13%. Remember in CT we are really well off on a per capita basis. This means non manufacturing is also large in CT pushing down our reported percentage in our state for manufactured goods.

The US has been the number one manufacturing country all along. Even with all the knick knacks out of China, Japan and Germany.

There are more manufacturers in that report than I knew DB2 but that is including plastic works and other things such as high tech. I was only discussing machine tooling.

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Can you compare GDP of China with US?

As per projections by IMF for 2021, United States is leading by $6,033 bn or 1.36 times on an exchange rate basis. The economy of China is Int. $3,982 billion or 1.18x of the US on purchasing power parity basis.

This is an interesting qualitive discussion. Manufacturing can be a bakery since value is added. In the US we are adding more value than the Chinese industrial base. Yet to produce for 1.4 billion people more needs to be manufactured.

With labor in Mexico we will beat the Chinese on all value propositions going forward.

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The U.S. Navy needs a new fleet of ballistic missile submarines, a $112 billion acquisition
In the coming decades, those ships will take shape, one by one, inside an enormous new facility at the General Dynamics Electric Boat campus on the Thames River in Groton


It’s been roughly a generation since the last time the Navy built up its underwater ballistic fleet. In the intervening years, the two regions that support its shipyards — eastern Virginia and southeastern New England — had to find other ways to get by. It wasn’t always easy. The submarine industrial base, which included thousands of skilled workers and hundreds of small manufacturing businesses that supply tools, materials and components for Navy ships, went into decline.

DB2

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Pratt and Sikorsky are two more of the major military suppliers.

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In that case, how is Texas doing?

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Texas may be in for a surprise
to the public
not for all of us
the price of oil has fallen.

CA is facing an economic slow down.

TX is going to face some of that as well. But TX is going to face lower oil prices.

Industrial growth matters. If you are already a massive state the growth rate in 2023 is not all that great in percentage terms.

CT may see a higher growth rate working with smaller numbers. Plus we are between Boston and NYC. We have advantages others dont. We have two also rans to NYC and Boston in Hartford and New Haven. The other cities are also industrial beds.

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Only 9% of Texas GDP comes from oil. Tech is rising rapidly there.

Also oil is currently higher than the entirety of 2015 through late-2021! That’s not “down” yet.

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In TX oil is taxed. It makes up an important part of state revenues.

It is continuing to trend downward. You’d have a better case if there were reason to think it is rising.