MF: How Likely Is A Real Estate Crash?

Analysis by Justin Pope tells him as housing prices cool and rates continue upward, we still won’t experience another 2007-2008 because of banking regulations put in place since then. Also, “America is short roughly 5 million single-family homes,” as Justin reminds us in the last paragraph:…

Could recession cause prices to drop? Sure, and almost every year that median home prices did decline was during a recession. Mortgage rates are also rising, which makes financing homes more expensive, and could help cool demand from buyers. At 4.7%, rates are still near multi-decade lows, but they have risen quickly so far this year.

Ultimately, you need demand for housing to fall, in order for prices to fall. A recession or rising rates can have that effect, but nobody can know for sure when, or by how much.

One of the unintended consequences of the housing crash in 2007 was that demand dropped so rapidly, that home builders basically shut down. The recovery of housing starts took years following the crisis, and today it’s estimated that America is short roughly 5 million single-family homes.

1 Like