# Middle East oil back to 94% of January? **URL:** \ **Category:** Macro Economic Trends and Risks\ **Created:** [September 28, 2026, 10:38pm UTC](https://discussion.fool.com/t/middle-east-oil-back-to-94-of-january/126609 "2026-09-28T22:38:23Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 11\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![DrBob2](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/motleyfoolfree/user_avatar/discussion.fool.com/drbob2/32/3456_2.png) [@DrBob2](https://discussion.fool.com/u/DrBob2)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2026, 10:38pm UTC](https://discussion.fool.com/t/middle-east-oil-back-to-94-of-january/126609/1 "2026-09-28T22:38:23Z")
Detailed numbers at the link. Also pricing that confirms what Hohum was posting last week. > **[Iran Has Lost Control of The Strait](https://x.com/BurggrabenH/article/2104361288000221497)** > > Iran's regime has lost control of the Strait of Hormuz. > Why? Because oil exports in the Middle East are now back to about 94%. This is a moving target, yes, but it is what the data tells us right now _Instead, it [UAE] established what I describe as the “Hormuz Shuttle”. It started early. Already back in May, it placed eleven hulls - mostly VLCCs, owned, leased & operated by ADNOC - to get the risky job done of shuttling crude out of the Persian trap via the Oman Lane into the Gulf of Oman, unloading it via Ship-to-Ship (STS) transfer and then re-entering the Persian trap to repeat the trade._ _Fast forward to September and not only has ADNOC become very good at the Hormuz Shuttle, Aramco and Kuwait have learned from the UAE and copied the model. By now, we have some 116 hulls active in the Shuttle trade around the Strait of Hormuz, most of them using the Oman Lane, hugging the coast of Oman…_ _As importantly, ADNOC has overcapacity for the trade. That means it can provide the Shuttle service for Iraq too, of course at a nice fee. How much? At this point, it costs about $212 per metric tonne, or roughly $28-30/bbl depending on the grade, to ship crude out of the Persian trap. In other words, for a ten to fifteen day trip with 2mn bbl of crude loaded on a VLCC, a customer pays some $58m. That is a lot, ladies and gentlemen. And it is why a brand-new VLCC costs about $220m to buy today, while ordering a newbuild in a Korean shipyard costs some $132m according to my Bloomberg data. The value is in the here and now, not in delivery by 2030…_ DB2 ---
**Author:** ![intercst](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/motleyfoolfree/user_avatar/discussion.fool.com/intercst/32/1543_2.png) [@intercst](https://discussion.fool.com/u/intercst)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2026, 12:54am UTC](https://discussion.fool.com/t/middle-east-oil-back-to-94-of-january/126609/2 "2026-09-29T00:54:34Z")
> [@DrBob2](#): > > **And it is why a brand-new VLCC costs about $220m to buy today, while ordering a newbuild in a Korean shipyard costs some $132m** according to my Bloomberg data. The value is in the here and now, not in delivery by 2030… Yep, and that’s one of the reasons you have $8/gal diesel right now ---
**Author:** ![HohumYNWA](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/motleyfoolfree/user_avatar/discussion.fool.com/hohumynwa/32/1511_2.png) [@HohumYNWA](https://discussion.fool.com/u/HohumYNWA)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2026, 2:08am UTC](https://discussion.fool.com/t/middle-east-oil-back-to-94-of-january/126609/3 "2026-09-29T02:08:08Z")
> [@DrBob2](#): > > As importantly, ADNOC has overcapacity for the trade Frontline (FRO) mgmt suggested two somewhat newer VLCC (built 2017) sold to ADNOC were going to be used for other purposes, likely shuttle stuff. Last week, a shipping broker reported ADNOC had purchased a slightly older VLCC (built 2013) for an even higher price $177M ---
**Author:** ![DrBob2](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/motleyfoolfree/user_avatar/discussion.fool.com/drbob2/32/3456_2.png) [@DrBob2](https://discussion.fool.com/u/DrBob2)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2026, 10:37am UTC](https://discussion.fool.com/t/middle-east-oil-back-to-94-of-january/126609/4 "2026-09-29T10:37:11Z")
> [@intercst](#): > > Yep, and that’s one of the reasons you have $8/gal diesel right now The link mentioned that refined products are higher priced than the oil supply would suggest because refineries are damaged or shut-in (Russia and the Middle East). DB2 ---
**Author:** ![DrBob2](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/motleyfoolfree/user_avatar/discussion.fool.com/drbob2/32/3456_2.png) [@DrBob2](https://discussion.fool.com/u/DrBob2)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2026, 4:01pm UTC](https://discussion.fool.com/t/middle-east-oil-back-to-94-of-january/126609/5 "2026-09-30T16:01:25Z")
There seems to be agreement. **Middle East crude oil exports back at prewar levels, analysts say** > **[MSN](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/middle-east-crude-oil-exports-back-at-prewar-levels-analysts-say/ar-AA2dgMBv)** _Goldman Sachs estimates that crude exports from Persian Gulf producers reached 19 million barrels a day over the past week through Monday. Crude accounted for nearly 90% of the recovery…_ _Iran’s ability to choke off oil flowing through Hormuz is breaking down, and the country has been unable to move its own crude…_ _With flows through Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline recently restored, the 10-day average of crude exports from the Middle East has rebounded to 17.5 million barrels a day, or 98% of prewar levels, J.P. Morgan analysts said._ DB2 ---
**Author:** ![zoro](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/motleyfoolfree/user_avatar/discussion.fool.com/zoro/32/3790_2.png) [@zoro](https://discussion.fool.com/u/zoro)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2026, 4:18pm UTC](https://discussion.fool.com/t/middle-east-oil-back-to-94-of-january/126609/6 "2026-09-30T16:18:03Z")
That is a good thing. Now the question I have is, what is it costing us per day to keep the crude flowing? ---
**Author:** ![jaagu](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/motleyfoolfree/user_avatar/discussion.fool.com/jaagu/32/6160_2.png) [@jaagu](https://discussion.fool.com/u/jaagu)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2026, 8:56pm UTC](https://discussion.fool.com/t/middle-east-oil-back-to-94-of-january/126609/7 "2026-10-05T20:56:18Z")
> [@DrBob2](#): > > Middle East crude oil exports back at prewar levels, analysts say Then why are the gasoline and diesel prices still higher than ever? Oh I know, the oil companies like to enrich themselves and screw the world. Oil price in January 1, 2026 was $58/barrel Oil price today October 5, 2026 is $89/barrel ---
**Author:** ![Leap1](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/motleyfoolfree/user_avatar/discussion.fool.com/leap1/32/72176_2.png) [@Leap1](https://discussion.fool.com/u/Leap1)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2026, 9:00pm UTC](https://discussion.fool.com/t/middle-east-oil-back-to-94-of-january/126609/8 "2026-10-05T21:00:43Z")
> [@DrBob2](#): > > Middle East crude oil exports back at prewar levels, analysts say NPR said the levels are better than prewar levels this morning. The shortfall is 30 billion barrels since the war began. ---
**Author:** ![DrBob2](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/motleyfoolfree/user_avatar/discussion.fool.com/drbob2/32/3456_2.png) [@DrBob2](https://discussion.fool.com/u/DrBob2)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2026, 10:06pm UTC](https://discussion.fool.com/t/middle-east-oil-back-to-94-of-january/126609/9 "2026-10-05T22:06:11Z")
> [@jaagu](#): > > Then why are the gasoline and diesel prices still higher than ever? As discussed: 1. Higher uncertainty 2. Higher insurance 3. Less refining capacity in both the Middle East and Russia DB2 ---
**Author:** ![jaagu](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/motleyfoolfree/user_avatar/discussion.fool.com/jaagu/32/6160_2.png) [@jaagu](https://discussion.fool.com/u/jaagu)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2026, 10:17pm UTC](https://discussion.fool.com/t/middle-east-oil-back-to-94-of-january/126609/10 "2026-10-05T22:17:11Z")
> [@DrBob2](#): > > As discussed: > > 1. Higher uncertainty > 2. Higher insurance > 3. Less refining capacity in both the Middle East and Russia > > DB2 Therefore, gasoline amd diesel prices will depend on **these three long term problems**. Seems like this situation spells world economic recession. ---
**Author:** ![DrBob2](https://sea2.discourse-cdn.com/motleyfoolfree/user_avatar/discussion.fool.com/drbob2/32/3456_2.png) [@DrBob2](https://discussion.fool.com/u/DrBob2)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2026, 10:54am UTC](https://discussion.fool.com/t/middle-east-oil-back-to-94-of-january/126609/11 "2026-10-06T10:54:51Z")
In Hormuz news, it is reported that Iran has launched more attacks on shipping in the last week. [https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/oil-was-pouring-through-the-strait-of-hormuz-again-then-attacks-on-shipping-resurged-fe9f0dd9](https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/oil-was-pouring-through-the-strait-of-hormuz-again-then-attacks-on-shipping-resurged-fe9f0dd9) _…after several days without reported attacks on ships toward the end of last month, the U.K. Maritime Trade Operations, which is affiliated with the Royal Navy, has reported seven strikes on vessels around the waterway since Sept. 28. On Sunday, it reported another strike, but didn’t specify when the incident happened._ The interesting part is that the price of oil didn’t go up. Over the past week WTI has actually decreased. ![Screenshot 2026-10-06 at 5.54.06 AM](https://us1.discourse-cdn.com/motleyfoolfree/original/3X/2/8/28840c34ace006631038dfa8a0b2599877e86f35.png) DB2