Military Intelligence a single crazy line

https://www.yahoo.com/news/no-good-outcome-putins-unraveling…

The last line quote has to be one of the craziest lines from military intelligence I have ever read. What freak’n law and order?

Snippet:

Even if Russian forces overrun Ukraine’s major cities, the invasion force invasion force of 190,000 troops in and around Ukraine is not large enough to control a largely hostile population of more than 40 million Ukrainians, said Seth Jones, senior vice president and director of the international security program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

“It will likely be difficult for the Russian army to hold territory for long with such a small ratio of soldiers to local inhabitants,” Jones said. “High numbers of troops are critical for establishing law and order.”

It is not a crazy line at all. The author is stating that a large number of occupying forces are needed to police a population in a freshly conquered,hostile country,in order to ensure a secure environment in said country. Furthermore,if that is true there may need to be 500,000 Russian military men in Ukraine to hold the country. Perhaps more.

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Jim,

You I totally get your point.

The person saying it totally forgot he was talking about Russian law and order as conquerors.

As I am saying what “law and order”? That is only an American goal.

The author is stating that a large number of occupying forces are needed to police a population in a freshly conquered,hostile country,in order to ensure a secure environment in said country. Furthermore,if that is true there may need to be 500,000 Russian military men in Ukraine to hold the country. Perhaps more.

www.army.mil/article/36324/a_historical_basis_for_force_requ….
“Most density recommendations fall within a range of 20 to 25 counterinsurgents for every 1,000 residents in an [area of operations]. Twenty counterinsurgents per 1,000 residents is often considered the minimum troop density required for effective [counterinsurgency] operations; however, as with any fixed ratio, such calculations remain very dependent on the situation.”

(43 million - 8 million Russians) x 0.02 = 700,000 troops

DB2

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(43 million - 8 million Russians) x 0.02 = 700,000 troops

700,000 non productive drones further draining a weak economy. Bankruptcy Chapter 2? A replay of Stalin’s Ukraine famine?

The Captain

2 Likes

190,000 troops in and around Ukraine is not large enough to control a largely hostile population of more than 40 million

To put those numbers in perspective: the population of South Vietnam in 1968 was 16.25M. The US had 500,000 personnel in country. The US won most of the set battles. But, the US lost the war. The VC had no place to go. Nam was their home. So they kept fighting.

The population of Afghanistan in 1989 was 11.87M. The Soviets had just over 100,000 in country. The Soviets held most of the cities. The Afghans had no place to go, because that was their home, so they kept fighting. Not only did the Soviets withdraw, after bleeding for ten years, less than three years later, the Soviet regime collapsed.

Now, Putin has taken on a population three times the size of those in Nam and Afghanistan. The math is not in his favor.

Steve

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I’ve read that Putin isn’t interested in occupying Ukraine. Wreck it, take chunks, and make a Russia friendly government.