Interesting thread.
If you weren’t aware, Jim has set up his own website, presumably to post things he finds of interest from time to time.
However, to date, the only thing he’s posted is an entry explaining that his “major bottom detector” fired on Sep. 29.
This signal triggered on Sept 29, but not Sept 30, so (to the extent that it has any value) the US market is a buy now. The market might tumble some more, but it’s usually quite a bit higher a year after such a signal. If you were to buy after the first “no signal” day after a signal day, on average the S&P 500 is 12% higher 6 months later, 21% higher a year later, and 36% higher two years later. Not adjusted for dividends or inflation.
It’s far from perfect, but if I had some short term short market positions, I’d close them.
Like many others, I sure wish he was still posting on the Berkshire board. But I hope to hear from him via his website from time to time.
Best,
Andy
CMFGouldberg