My first portfolio review

First of all my sincere thanks to Saul and the members of this board. This is my first update and as mentioned by others, writing it down really helped me figure out many things. Here are my current holdings and then a short discussion about them:

NVDA: I use to have a much bigger position in Nvidia last year but sold half of it to raise cash for other companies discussed here. This is not a Saul top 15 stock but my main reason for staying in are:

  • Nvidia has a huge lead over others in the coming autonomous driving revolution. The amount of data that these vehicles have to process is huge and only Nvidia hardware is able to handle it currently. Even if a new competitor shows up, they will have a big chunk of the market already cornered off.

  • Nvidia has been setting itself up for the upcoming AI wave by working with small and big vendors to incorporate their hardware and software. They have become part of the ecosystem from the get go.

  • They are slowly getting in to the data centers and as the cloud computing expands, they will grow with the trend.

  • They are getting into healthcare big data and imaging opening new markets.

AYX: Not much to discuss here except that it’s a Saul category crusher.

ZS: Network security will become more and more important as our lives becomes increasingly internet driven. Zscalar is a leader in this field and should continue to grow for the 4-5 years.

TWLO: I have to admit that I would not have either entered this stock or expanded last month if not for the discussion that ensued on this board. Another category crusher. Though when I entered Twillio, I could only raise enough cash for one company and had to choose between TTD and TWLO. Looking at where TTD is today, I think that would have been a good trade as well.

TSLA: I am aware that Tesla brings out the worst on this board so please bear with me. I will keep it short and not discuss this again. This is a ¼ left over position from 2011 for me. The reason I hang on to it are:

  • Tesla has a huge advantage in battery technology and manufacturing. With the acquisition of Maxwell, they get access to dry electrode battery technology which will further cement their position as a leader for the coming 4-5 years.

  • There cars are truly amazing to drive and are selling themselves. I am a Model 3 Long range owner and was amongst the first 20 thousand deliveries in US last year. Just received my Federal EV tax incentive :blush:

  • ICE companies have a huge problem on their hands with their legacy business. Just this week “VW threatens to exit important automaker lobbying group over electric vehicle policies” (…). That’s the reason we have seen almost all legacy automakers including GM dragging their feet for the last 3-5 years.

  • Software company vs automotive company: Most people already understand this well but we don’t appreciate this much. While manufacturing is hard, running robust and stable mission ciritical software is even harder. Look how many times Audis first EV Etron has been delayed because of software issues. How far behind the Jaguar iPace software is.

  • Current sales of Model 3 in US Europe and Asia are very good and increasing with the $35K version now available. Norway is already counting M3 as the lead EV sold since being offered in Feb and look how many Teslas are there in the line in one of the DMVs in China (…)

  • I think I have rambled enough but here are some analyst quotes:

Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives, meanwhile, on Wednesday reiterated his Outperform rating on Tesla and $390 price target, a bit above FactSet’s average near $337, following a visit to two of the company’s manufacturing facilities.

"Tesla continues to clearly streamline its battery manufacturing efficiency process to a point that is a major competitive advantage versus encroaching EV competitors who have not gone through the rigorous learning process Musk & Co. have battled through over the past few years, " Ives wrote.

MDB: During the amazon scare I sold out 20% but after reading posts here and other places on the net, I figured out the fear was overblown. Looking at where its today, I am glad I stayed in. MDB is a giant in the making.

ESTC: This is another stock which I would not have entered if not for the discussion on this board and without Sauls nudge. I follow Elastic on FB and I am totally impressed by the functionality and features their product offers. I think like MDB, the Amazon scare may be small in the long run but need to look at the coming few quarters. If things feel shaky, I will exit this position.

OKTA: I kick myself for not entering this first when my company started using this early 2018 and I actually noted how simple this product made our lives logging into different accounts. I just did not connect that it could be much bigger deal. Well I now appreciate it and I believe they are here to stay. The product just makes sense and logging at work or from home is so painless and streamlined.

SQ: I used to have a bigger position in Sqaure last year but sold out 30% to fund other positions. Gives good exposure on the online payment side. I think this has been discussed a lot here so I will leave it there.

SMAR: This is a try out position where I happen to buy it just before Saul asked for recommendations here. Based on their last quarterly report, so far it looks good. Though I am planning to keep it small as I am not sure when the big Gorilla sitting in Bellevue decides to offer something similar and for a lower subscription price.

My biggest mistake was getting in big time in NTNX in Jan and Feb. Even though I was not comfortable with it as I didn’t understand their business clearly, I let my self get ahead of me as Bert, many analysts and the discussions over here seemed mostly positive. After the quarterly report, I also sold out around $33 to expand on the other positions.

I also used to own SHOP last year and closed the position to raise cash for the above listed positions. Given how it has started to show signs of revival, I intend to enter it again once the growth trend is visible in the coming quarters.

So how have I done since Jan 1st, 2019. I am up 38% on my tech portfolio and for that I am thankful to all of guys. And of course, Saul you rock!