My portfolio at the end of three-quarters

Investment Analysis Clubs Saul’s Investing Discussions
#8

google to get a quick answer to these kind of questions. It took me about 30 seconds

http://www.aaii.com/journal/article/how-many-stocks-do-you-n…

As a rule of thumb, diversifiable risk will be reduced by the following amounts:

Holding 25 stocks reduces diversifiable risk by about 80%,
Holding 100 stocks reduces diversifiable risk by about 90%, and
Holding 400 stocks reduces diversifiable risk by about 95%.

but the real point is that diversification is just an Exchange Traded Index Fund away today. I use a equal market weighted form of Std and Poor 500, others are even more diversified.
There is no need to buy umpteen stocks to get it,since you can buy an index. Rather than making your own with 55 stocks.

The biggest diversification needed is between asset classes. Stocks ,cash, real estate etc. Equities mostly move together that is why bear and bull markets exist.

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#9

and here are the pretty pictures of Saul’s stocks to look at…
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?SWKS,BOF…

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?SMALLPOS…

P.

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#10

Saul I must have missed the CNC discussion somewhere along the track. Are you not worried about going into an election year in the US that any repeal of Obamacare reforms might have a sudden impact to the business model CNC are operating? Of do you hope to be in and out by then?
Thanks
Ant

#11

Saul I must have missed the CNC discussion somewhere along the track. Are you not worried about going into an election year in the US that any repeal of Obamacare reforms might have a sudden impact to the business model CNC are operating? Of do you hope to be in and out by then? Thanks Ant

Hi Ant, Here’s a long thread on Centene started Aug 30th (with 25 recs).

http://discussion.fool.com/centene-cnc-31893048.aspx

Actually I never buy a stock with the idea of being in and out in a defined period of time. I only buy “forever” - but forever never seems to last forever :wink:

In spite of all the posturing, it’s hard for me to imagine a repeal of Obamacare, as you’d have 10 or 20 million people suddenly lose their health insurance, which would cause a huge uproar. Actually, you’d have the health insurance companies strongly lobbying against repeal. But who knows? I guess the uncertainty has held me back though from taking a larger position.

Saul

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#12

In reading back through the thread about Centene myself, I see that it’s currently 30 million people, and growing. Hard to imagine kicking 30 million people off health insurance, but as I said, who knows?

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#13

I might agree Saul but given how 1) I’m not in the States 2) Obamacare is highly politicized and 3) Most US politicians are talking rabidly about repealing it; then it makes it hard for me to judge.

I have to say and I will leave it at this - from the outside, the US healthcare system just looks systemically messed up.

Ant

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#14

the US healthcare system just looks systemically messed up.

Oh, it certainly is.

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#15

Most US politicians are talking rabidly about repealing it;

I think the operative word there is the adverb … there is a lot of distance between rhetoric and feasible action.

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#16

In the unlikely event that Obamacare is repealed, GOP must put a replacement plan in its place that gives the millions of Obamacare beneficiaries some coverage or they will be committing political suicide.

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#17

In the unlikely event that Obamacare is repealed…

Repealed? Never. Politically tweaked? With certainty.

Meet the new boss, same as the old boss.

Bob

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#18

Saul,

Not that it really matters but I noticed an inconsistency in your post on the size of your holdings. The individual sizes of your small positions don’t match up to the range you state. Rather than being between 4.2% and 3.9%, which adds up in the total correctly, they are listed as 5.0%, 4.6% and 4.2%. Maybe you got off a column or something when checking those?

Next I have three stocks with smaller positions between 4.2% and 3.9%. These are

ABMD ($22.3) at 5.0%, PE is 88- earnings growth is 112% - 1YPEG is 0.79
SNCR ($25.4) at 4.6%, PE is 17 - earnings growth is 32% - 1YPEG is 0.53
PAYC ($76.4) at 4.2%, PE is 104 - earnings growth is 200% - 1YPEG is 0.52

Please note that all three of these small positions together total just about 12.1% of my portfolio

And may I say once again…thank you so much for sharing. Based on discussions I believe quite a few people have shifted their portfolios to better match your philosophy on investing. I have been moving that direction myself, but more slowly than some others.

Steve

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#19

Sorry, you are correct. My error. Those percents should be 4.2%, 4.1%, and 3.9%.

Saul

#20

This was a tough quarter for the stock market. Really a tough quarter. It’s felt as if each of my stocks took a hit and then bounced back, and then took another hit and another bounce, and so on. At the beginning of this quarter (at the end of June), I was up 35.0% on the year, and the S&P 500 was up 2.1%. We are now three months later at the end of September and I am up 33.3% and the S&P is down 6.2%.

Hi Saul:

I just popped in to congratulate you on your great performance YTD in the face of a crappy market, and to share my performance stats - they’ll make you look even better :slight_smile:


Sep broker	18%
sep funds	 0%
John taxable	-7%
Fiona	         8%
Anna	        -2%
	
Average	        10%

As before, I prefer to look at each account separately, since I employ different strategies in each. John taxable, Fiona and Anna are all held at IB so I rely on their twrr calculation for the return. For my Sep broker and funds I calculate my own xirr, which should be similar to the twrr.

My total gain over all the accounts is 10%.

My taxable account got hit pretty hard this month, since I use leverage, options and made volatility trades a little early. I’m not too worried about the short term underperformance as I believe it will bounce back by the end of the year or early next year.

I use a smaller amount of leverage and options trading in Fiona and Anna’s accounts. Fiona’s account looks so good relative to the others because I raised a whole lot of cash for her so that she has it available for the buildout of her cafe/restaurant in Baltimore.

I’m pretty happy with my Sep brokerage account performance - obviously this is the largest account. It’s a very diversified account but is doing well against the S&P, though not as good as you.

The Sep funds - what can I say - I keep thinking I should liquidate them, although the largest component is the Vanguard Healthcare fund, which has been a stellar performer since I first owned it in the mid 1990’s. It’s been hit this month with all the drug price control talk.

One quick question/thought. It occurred to me as I was writing this that I’m not sure whether you are quoting your YTD returns as xirr (i.e. annualized) or strict YTD.

Anyway, congratulations on your continued great performance and for inspiring so many people on this board, which has become one of the must read gems of TMF.

John

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#21

Hi John, It’s strict YTD. Thanks for your compliments. Saul

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#22

I hope Anna doesn’t get jealous of Fiona!

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#23

In…credible. And so informative. Thank you, Saul.

#24

Wait a minute. Been catching up and noticed ABMD, one of the smaller positions in your portfolio is listed with a share price of $22.3. The price today is $89.03. Can’t imagine no one mentioned this with the excellent scrutiny the board has in checking the information that is provided. Thanks to Saul & all.

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#25

Has to be a type since it started the year at 38.

#26

Sorry Schoenyman, all three of those small positions are wrong. I must have been called away and forgot where I was when I came back.

As of today (after two down days on Mon and Tues) they are as follows:

ABMD price $89.0, PE 82.4, growth 112%, 1YPEG 0.74
SNCR price $33.4, PE 16.4, growth 32%, 1YPEG 0.51
PAYC price $34.5, PE 104.7, growth 200%, 1YPEG 0.52

Saul

1 Like
#27

Thanks Saul,