@iampops5 The estimate is over 200k air dropped gravity bombs and 175k satellite guided GPS tail kits.
While exact real-time numbers are classified, defense analysts estimate that the U.S. military maintains a stockpile of tens of thousands of unguided “dumb bomb” bodies and JDAM tail kits. [1]
Unlike high-end missiles—such as Patriot or Tomahawk interceptors, which have seen significant depletion due to recent conflicts in the Middle East—the U.S. inventory of air-dropped gravity bombs remains uniquely robust. [2, 3, 4]
Stockpile Estimates & Indicators
Tens of Thousands of Ready Kits: In the years leading up to the recent Middle East air campaigns, the Pentagon proactively purchased tens of thousands of Mk 82-series bombs and Boeing JDAM guidance kits. [4]
“Virtually Unlimited” Air Campaign Capacity: Defense officials and external researchers note that while advanced precision-guided missiles face major manufacturing constraints, stockpiles of these general-purpose gravity bombs are considered highly sufficient. This vast reserve allows the U.S. Air Force and Navy to maintain extensive air campaigns without immediate fear of running out. [4]
Massive Historic Manufacturing Base: Because Boeing has produced more than 550,000 total JDAM kits over the lifespan of the program, the infrastructure to continuously stamp out thousands of replacement tail kits per month is already deeply established, preventing the production bottlenecks seen in more complex weapon systems. [5, 6]
No matter how ignorant and stupid the man is, we can not make decisions or run things based on the past. The entire exercise means we have not made up our minds on our turf how to do things. We have to play the ball where it lies. We are not prepared to do that when only complaining about squid for brains.
Or our side is so dishonest as well, we do not feel we want to discuss what to do.
Actually you can decide that based on the stupidity of past decisions you don’t want that same team making any more of them. If the boss’ son decides to sell all your inventory at a loss so he can get a week off to go fishing, do you put him in charge of your Christmas inventory too?
Sounds like your theory is “Well, I’m losing money on this investment, I know it’s bad and going to get worse, I might as well add to it.”
Here is one of the best, in-depth articles about what’s going on; lead story in today’s Wall Street Journal. Gift link included. Summary version: Iran’s leaders don’t trust us, are preparing for a long conflict, and are running circles around the short-term thinkers in Washington.
Iran’s Secret Plan to Escalate the War
Intercepted communications and other intelligence suggest a strategic shift by hard-line leaders to raise the costs for the U.S. and its regional allies
After President Trump signed a memorandum of understanding with [Iran] in mid-June, administration officials fanned out
to build support for an agreement they hoped would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and start winding down the war.
Iran’s hard-line leaders huddled in Tehran and came up with a different plan, according to Iranian and Arab officials. In their view the pact was likely just an attempt by the U.S. and Israel to take pressure off the global economy and buy time for a bigger attack down the road. Instead of putting faith in talks, they took the past two months to prepare for a bigger fight.
Their efforts include giving the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps more control of the country’s regular army, appointing hardened veterans of the war with [Iraq] and past internal crackdowns to key posts, expanding domestic counterintelligence operations and ramping up production of missiles and drones. The leadership quickly seized the initiative, attacking ships to tighten Iran’s grip on Hormuz and expanding the battlefield to the Red Sea, which Saudi Arabia has used to get around Iran’s chokehold on the Persian Gulf.
Arab intelligence officials have picked up evidence—including communications between Iran and militia allies in countries such as Yemen and Iraq—of a strategic shift inside the country’s hard-line leadership to get their forces ready to widen the war and raise the costs for the U.S., officials familiar with the findings say. Alarming weaker Gulf countries like Kuwait, Iran’s leaders are increasingly talking about offensive operations on enemy territory.
Their overriding goal is to inflict enough pain to ensure the kind of attacks Iran has endured with the [12-day war last year] and the continuing conflict aren’t repeated.
No, my stance is to play the ball where it lies in the rough.
Do you want to lose this war?
Do you want to win this war?
Our guys are not committed to the war. Does that mean we would walk away as losers of the war? Because, frankly, state that if you mean that. You being the generic if you lead us, tell us the truth. Don’t punt and then lose the following election, because leadership means taking positions someone won’t like.
You think our guys blank don’t stink? Well, we do not know what our blank is. And that stinks.
Have you seen our popularity contest numbers? It is not like the country wants us.
Running against stupid does not mean we have any stated position.
That is not a problem. It probably is not true. But if it is in time magazine the polling data must be complete. Sarcasm.
It is an election year, this is the most tepid article you will see on him all year long. Good thing the press is objective.
Clickbait have no fury like readers $uckered.
Until our folks running start to take positions that are well thought out and meaningful, he is in a position to win. If it is going to be clickbait only, we risk losing. How stupid he is does not matter to the folks who support him. For a long time, they have hated us more than we made excuses for them in a patronizing way.
It’s not my choice, but for the record we have already lost.
We have lost the support of every ally we had. We have lost control of the Strait. We have lost the ability to negotiate with the current regime. We have lost control of their nuclear stockpiles. We have even managed to lose the support of the Iranian people.
I’m not sure how you think you recover from that. (Here’s a tip: You don’t. You declare victory and exit, and leave the mess behind.)
Actually, if the young interviewee knew a bit more about history…We can destabilize Iran for Iran’s own benefit with air power alone. There is a case with dumb bombs and no tail kits for accuracy. We can do this with accurate bombing of the Iranian regime.
Pops, the “experts” in life have clay feet.
No, the U.S. bombing campaign in Cambodia did not directly topple the government. Instead, its goal was to target North Vietnamese and Viet Cong supply lines and base areas during the Vietnam War. [1, 2, 3]
How the Government Changed
Prince Sihanouk’s Ouster (1970): While the secret bombing under President Richard Nixon destabilized the region, Prince Norodom Sihanouk was actually deposed in a domestic political coup led by pro-U.S. General Lon Nol while Sihanouk was out of the country.
Establishment of the Khmer Republic: Lon Nol took power and changed the government, which then allied more closely with the United States and supported expanded anti-communist military actions. [1, 4, 6, 7]
Indirect Long-Term Impact
Rise of the Khmer Rouge: The heavy bombing and resulting civilian displacement deeply destabilized Cambodian society.
Insurgent Recruitment: Historical consensus indicates that the chaos and destruction helped drive rural support and recruitment for the communist Khmer Rouge, who eventually overthrew Lon Nol’s government themselves in 1975. [2, 8, 9, 10, 11]
You are a product of Vietnam protests. I am not denying those principles that loss of life is pointless.
This war has barely begun. We have several problems with the Iranian regime. Most of the Iranians have the same problems with their regime.
As for our allies, Ukraine. It has taken the EU about three years to truly begin to fund the war effort in Iran. Orban was one of the reasons. But still three years. We are still funding the war regardless of Trump’s bluster more than the EU is last I knew.
Reading that…our allies are fully self committed. The US alliances were always at our expense since after WW II. I am for that expense, but let’s not fool ourselves, if the piggy bank needs to give up a few pennies our allies are deeply reluctant.
Bombing that helped create the Khmer Rouge is an example of success? Bonkers.
Wanting to win is not enough. There are a slew of other important questions that must be answered.
What does “winning” look like?
Do we understand what it takes to “win”?
Are we willing to suffer the consequences of what it will take to “win”?
It is absolutely true. Bibi has been pushing for this war for decades. Other administrations didn’t take the bait because they knew it would create havoc. The knew it would be near impossible to “win”.
Robert Pape is no spring chicken. He’s also recognized as an authority on the fallacy of bombing a nation into regime change. Ironically, your Khmer Rouge example is exactly why bombing alone doesn’t work. It often radicalizes a nation and results in more extreme regimes.
What are the chances of this happening, especially when our current objectives no longer push for regime change?
Who’s gonna overthrow the regime, all the citizens who are upset that we’re bombing them to kingdom come? What are they gonna overthrow the regime with, sticks and stones? That young whipper snapper Robert Pape describes regime change through bombing alone as not only unlikely, but as something that has never been successfully accomplished…ever. The fact that we have morons in charge makes this even less likely to happen.
We’re suffering economic consequences. We’re also suffering casualties. Troop morale, our military spread thin, wasting munitions, the deficit, the US destroying alliances, the list goes on and on and on. For the vast majority of Americans, this war isn’t worth it. That’s not the same as wanting to lose.
Didn’t happen. Probably not going to happen now in any case.
The IRCG has around 200,000 active members, triple that if you count the Basij paramilitary volunteers. The are widely dispersed throughout the country, which is three times the size of Iraq, and we staged 300,000 personnel for that one and it took 6 months to prepare. That would put the Iran forces at somewhere north of 800,000, and would take us a year to put adequate forces in theater.
2a. Thinking you are going to “strike them” is as deluded as thinking you are going to eliminate the US army by “striking” all the US military bases in George, Kansas, California, Texas, Florida, Massachusetts, Illinois, Arizona, Nevada, Virginia, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Mississippi, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Alaska, Oregon, Iowa, Minnesota, Montana, and the rest. It’s delusional, the product of someone who doesn’t understand what you’re fighting.
Another destabilized country in the Middle East, now emboldened to close the Strait through which 20% of the world’s oil flows, encourage the Houthi’s to close Red Sea access. ••• The loss of respect across the civilized world, and the realization that the word of the US is not worth the paper it’s printed on. ••• Inflation and damage to the US and world economy. ••• The installation of an even more radical Islamic government, bent on fomenting mischief elsewhere.
But on the positive side, perhaps a realization that the US and Israel’s interests are not the same, and that future Presidents should have a better (or at least some) understanding of world politics and diplomacy. Yes, I’m always looking for a bright side to this tragic fiasco.
You have put your tee shot in the middle of the river. You are determined to “play it where it lies.” You are underwater. The rest of us are trying to point out that if you continue to do that you will drown.
A better strategy, to follow your golf analogy, is to take a penalty stroke and start somewhere else, preferably responding to problems at home, but almost anywhere else than Iran would be better.