Nervokid - January 2021 Update

Hi everyone,

This is my first monthly write-up, even to myself. Started typing to help me make sense of this absolutely crazy week. I’ve been lurking here in the board for a few months, and have been gradually adapting to Saul’s investment strategy. Thank you everybody for the great financial advice poured here day after day! There’s so much knowledge here I find myself refreshing the board for new posts around 5 times per day.

Quick intro:
41 years old, live in Portugal and have worked in the videogames industry for the past 18 years. Bought my first shares ever in July 2020 just to see what it was like, after investigating retirement plans and other savings plans over here and realising, well, they’re all crap.

Started building a proper portfolio and found TMF through Yahoo Finance in late August. Subscribed to a few TMF premium programs in September, and then discovered this board in October. When I started reading this board, I was holding a little over 70 stocks (in many of them I had 1 or 2 shares). Started cutting positions and seeing my results improve. I’m now down to the 18 positions described below and looking to trim that list further with time, once the next cycle of earnings reports happens. I’ve only lived through one cycle so far, so looking forward to this!

Portfolio 2020 results [after ~5 months]: +24.5%
I was pretty happy, as the expectation when I started was to finish the year around 8% , and over here, no retirement or investment plan from a bank guarantees more than +1,x% net result. During the Christmas break, on the last week of the year I was at 20-something positions and made the decision to commit to further consolidation, so removed a few on that week and 2021’s first week:

CRISPR THERAPEUTICS
Was getting solid returns (+95% in 4 months) but couldn’t really understand why. Achieving success or not seemed too much like playing the lottery. They’ll maybe/probably do great, but it’s not for me.

SQUARE
Solid company, closed because I felt the biggest growth years are behind them.

ZSCALER
Actually bought into ZS before I heard of CRWD, after reading the great write-ups on CRWD here sold ZS to increase the CRWD position.
The other catalyst for this was the ZS website, which I thought was pretty bad and with some spelling mistakes. For a marketing guy, presentation means a lot.

LIVE OAK BANCSHARES
Largest lender to SMBs in the US. Growth was decelerating on their last ER, closed.

PINTEREST
I had a very small quantity, that I’d bought after seeing them recommended as a good investment on several of TMF’s free daily articles. The stock price had a couple of spikes and then stagnated, and while I was deciding what to keep, installed the app and thought it was annoying, made the decision easy.

AIRBNB
PALANTIR
These two I closed but soon started to regret it. I’m still very new to all this, but these two I bought close to their IPOs out of my own conviction, without any services etc recommending them. What followed leads me to believe I need to learn to trust my gut instincts more.

The main reason for closing Palantir was the secrecy behind their products - “They’re doing well but I don’t really know what I’ve bought here, not much data to judge their future prospects” . So I sold and of course a few weeks later they do a Demo Day, and more profiles on the company become available… I’m back in with a much smaller position, with an average cost base that’s a lot higher than before, but I believe this is one to hold for years.

ABNB is a company I looked for when I bought my first ever stocks last summer, and was surprised to find out they weren’t a public company yet. There were a few weeks of lag between the IPO and recommendations on various articles around financial websites. During those few weeks the stock price went down, and news around COVID infections and deaths worsened, so I decided to close it. After I closed, of course the recommendations started happening, and the price went up again (it’s lower now than the sale price I got, though).

Portfolio Jan 2021

I’ve ended the month +24.7% where I started.
This is due in large part to the Gamestop event this month, which helped me ignore the market downturn last week. Without the Gamestop play, I’d have finished with +14%.

Positions as of now

Jan 2021
TICKER %

CRWD 16,3%
NET 14,5%
MGNI 5,9%
LMND 5,5%
FVRR 5,2%
TDOC 5,0%
ZM 4,7%
DDOG 4,5%
FLGT 4,2%
APPN 4,1%
SNOW 3,4%
EXPI 3,4%
DOCU 2,9%
FUBO 2,7%
ETSY 2,5%
ROKU 2,5%
PLTR 0,7%

GME 8,3%

CASH 3,6%

Please see below a few words on some of them.

GAMESTOP

I’ll start by addressing the elephant in the room. This was/is a small opportunistic play, where I was actually egged on by my millennial nephew (who was also the one who introduced me to trustworthy mobile app brokers in Europe months ago, so I guess some cool present is in order!).

I had no cash available when I heard of GME and r/WSB late on the 22nd. During that weekend I read up on what was happening, and decided to buy a few shares on Monday. For that, I sold out of DOCU and SNOW temporarily, as I was under water in SNOW, and DOCU hadn’t moved a lot from where I bought it either. I bought GME Monday, sold part of it Wednesday to take back my investment and then some, bought DOCU and SNOW again, and am still in GME, just with part of my profits now.

It was a sometimes terrible, sometimes exhilarating, laugh out loud week. I ended up truly exhausted, and realise I don’t need this kind of extra stress in my life. But it seemed like a very special opportunity, let’s see where it goes tomorrow. I plan to close the position soon.

CrowdStrike, CloudFlare

These have been extensively reported on here in the board. They’re my top investments and I plan on keeping them that way. There’s potential here for global leaders / recognition in a few years.

Out of curiosity, Matthew Prince from NET got into a brief Twitter spat with the Portuguese government a couple of months ago, around the bureaucracy getting in their way to be able to expand their operations here (bringing foreign workers in to work in Lisbon). The level of aggressive entrepeneurship displayed there was alright with me.

Magnite

I bought Magnite for the first time in September, and have been adding to the position every month. They’re the world’s biggest digital ads sell-side platform, and have been endorsed by companies such as Disney, who are looking to do all their business in this sector for Disney+ with MGNI. I regretted missing the train with The Trade Desk, which I would have got on in a heartbeat if I’d begun investing some time ago, I guess, so was glad to find this opportunity. Beth Kindig seems to really like them as well.

Lemonade

Disruption in the insurance world, facilitating several types of insurance through an online platform, reducing human interaction and making the whole process quicker and cheaper for consumers. Recently got into a court fight in France with Deutsch Telekom (and won!) regarding use of the pink color in their communications, which got them some good marketing as well. Curious to see if they manage to add life insurance quickly, and to see them keep up the expansion to other international markets as well. Together with Magnite, one of my favourite performers so far.

Fiverr

Online marketplace for companies/individuals to request services from freelance workers. Been doing really well across the past few quarters, and with another year in front of us that’ll still be full of Covid-induced troubles, I don’t see this one fading anytime soon. Been getting hit with several ads from them on Facebook as well, in Spain particularly.

EXP World Holdings

I found out about EXPI through this very board and bought a very small position after reading an extensive write-up here. They provide a technology platform and a cloud-based brokerage for real estate agents that facilitates them working remotely. They have been expanding internationally, currently operating in a handful of countries (including Portugal!), lots of room for further growth.

EXPI announced a stock split recently, which drove the stock price further up (total +68% in January). Additional stock distribution will happen after close on Feb 12th. They use stock-compensation as a key mechanic to bring agents in to work with them.

Teladoc

I was on the fence about Teladoc for a while, as everything seemed right but then the price wouldn’t move for a couple of months, which led people to believe the market was suspicious about their ability to properly integrate with Livongo. This month it finally left the $200 mark and shot up ~30% , so glad I kept it in the year end purge.

Palantir

Discussed above. Restarted the position this month, plan to buy more.

CASH

It’s been a while since I had this much available, and I’m adding more disposable income to the portfolio next week. Also, as I plan on selling out of GME very soon, hopefully there’ll be even more. Apart from adding to CRWD and NET, not really sure yet which other positions I’ll be adding to, waiting for ER season to decide.

If you’ve made it this far, thanks a lot for reading.
Any comments/questions, fire away.
On GME, maybe PM me, it’s OT for this board.

Thanks again to everyone here for making me a better investor, looking forward to the next few years!

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