New Base and TB Thinking

Note 1) I am an outside the norm growth style amateur investor who just doesn’t color within the lines. I don’t buy and hold without attempting to produce a continuous series of profitable mini-trades during the month, primarily and preferably, involving my higher confidence companies. Anything someone might stumble across on this shell of a board - should be taken with general skepticism, a large grain of salt, and a general wariness about “trying this at home”. It has worked for me but that just might be the market gods luring me in for the big portfolio kill - or something like that.

Last months theme was: “Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the face.” And brother, there was a whole lot of face punching going on in April! But that was then and this is now - so to speak.

This months theme is: April Showers Bring May Flowers.

I am not all that sure that any of the April face punches will lead to any real May gains; but, it seemed an appropriate theme - unless, it just doesn’t work out. And, to point out the obvious, things don’t always work out like you think they will, especially in investing.

The bones of the process:

Step One: Adjust the Roster Base if Needed

Ok so after the May Starting Gate I acted on the May plan to establish my base roster for May. Some players got cut (ZS) while others moved up or down in playing time allocation. What that means to me, is that I rearranged the roster to give me what I think is the best shot at beating the May market. Doesn’t mean the base roster can’t change - and often it does due to profitable substitutions, poor performance, etc. Which takes me to step two of the initial analysis.

Note: I am an amateur investor and a lot of what I do can be viewed in light of the old saying: Never make eye contact with crazy people or Insurance salesman. Note within a note: I do not sell insurance.

So going in these are the potential TB scenarios:

  1. MNDY

1 Day Performance: -1.65%
5 Day Performance: -2.90%

This is why I didn’t trim MNDY as the May Plan called for. Instead, I am thinking that since MNDY reports on 5/15 that it might begin to rally into its report - after all, its last report was just dandy. If it drops tomorrow I might add a TB.

  1. TTD

1 Day Performance: -2.18%
5 Day Performance: +3.18%

Noting to see here so far.

  1. ENPH

1 Day Performance: -2.20
5 Day Performance: -4.71%

Hard to tell.

  1. CRWD

1 Day Performance: -1.05%
5 Day Performance: -4.04%

Need to check for news and perhaps add a TB tomorrow.

  1. MELI

1 Day Performance: +1.11%
5 Day Performance: +2.97%

MELI - as always, is volatile. I consider MELI a big TB and not necessarily part of the permanent roster. It should do well going into its 5/3 report so no TB for MELI. With a good report and nice pop the decision will have to be made: cut or think more permanently.

  1. NET

1 day Performance: -4.94%
5 Day Performance: -26.14%

No TB until the collapse dust has cleared.

  1. S

1 Day Performance: +2.12%
5 Day Performance: -3.13%

I really like S at or below 16 and a TB at that point is almost automatic. Waiting.

  1. BILL

1 Day Performance: +0.86
5 Day Performance: +2.68

I just added BILL back to the roster and much to early to even think about a TB. Does feel like BILL is getting up off the mat though. Reports on 5/4 so it won’t be long before I feel either like a guru for adding them back or a complete moron.

  1. GLBE

1 Day Performance: -2.26%
5 Day Performance: -4.75%

I just cut GLBE primarily because it was much too large of a position. Need to watch it for a bit.

  1. DDOG

1 Day Performance: -2.94%
5 Day Performance: -8.14%

Reports on 5/4 and I hesitant to add a TB going into an ER; on the other hand, how in the world can DDOG get worse? I know…I know, it most surely can get worse and its upcoming ER presents the perfect opportunity for it. From its level at the time of the Waterloo ER until now its dropped 26% or so. The drop over the last several days may be investors slowly backing aware from an alligator, snake, or really bad dog. But - be that as it may, I am going to add a small TB tomorrow under the premise: In for a penny - in for a pound.

  1. IOT

1 Day Performance: -0.39
5 Day Performance: -8.34

I just reduced IOT out of lack of confidence in them. The company doesn’t report until late in May so there is plenty of time to watch the stock. However, If I held IOT in High Esteem and confidence I would not have cut them - I would have created a TB.

  1. ONON

1 Day Performance: -0.09%
5 Day Performance: +0.42%

Nothing to see here yet.

Never…EVER…take or act on any investing thoughts from a stranger on a message board - ideas to research…well yeah thats ok. For all anyone knows my former Motley Fool screen name was Felon-In-Prison-With-A-Laptop.

All the Best,


Losing money is absolutely not funny, but your phrasing triggered a quote… so at the risk of unintended offense…
“Worse?! How could things get any worse? Take a look around you, Ellen! We’re at the threshold of hell!!”
…This is a full-blown, four-alarm holiday emergency here. We’re gonna press on, and we’re gonna have the hap, hap, happiest Christmas since Bing Crosby tap-danced with Danny [f] Kaye!"



Hi FC:

No offense whatsoever - perfect quote and a great movie.

Of course it can get worse - but, just imagine if they have a good report? Worth a few shekels (sp) to see.

All the Best,

1 Like

10% Trading Block added In S at 15.45.

All the Best,

1 Like

5% TB added in MNDY at 113.88.

All the Best,

5% TB added in ENPH at 153.57

All the Best,

5% TB in CRWD at 116.30

All the Best,

Cut ONON from the Scout Team and rolling funds over into Higher Confidence companies

All the Best,

5% TB added to DDOG at 64.21.

All the Best,


Sold DDOG TB @ 67.17 for a short term gain of 4.6%

All the Best,

How the heck have you been, man!!

Dreamer aka Phil-My-Commissary-Please


Hey Phil?

Really great man - working on the lost diamond ring in the parking lot scam… How did you beat that wicked Jay Walking rap?

All the Best,