New York State going with all-electric houses

That is true, built it used to be a lot more true. Just 10-15 years ago most heat pumps would strain below 20°, but there is a whole new wave that can work down to -22°. Yes, they’re less efficient at the lowest temps, but they’re still more efficient than resistance electric heating, and slightly better than gas.

(We have geothermal heat pump, which uses water which is a pretty constant 55-60° so it’s quite efficient no matter what’s going on outside.)

But the initial install (and replacement) are about 20% more expensive to start, so while it’s “better” it’s still not perfect.

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Modern heat pumps can operate at remarkably low temperatures. For very cold climates they usually have electric resistance heat backup.

The way to go for new construction is a ground loop heat pump. In most place, the ground below a few feet deep never freezes, so the heat pump is in its happy zone all winter. Some heat pumps are dual air/ground source, depending on which load is more efficient.

The downside is ground loop heat pumps are expensive to install. Hence builders don’t like them, but occupants recoup the costs fairly rapidly.

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The problem (which will be exacerbated by this regulation) is that New York state has been decommissioning power plants (nuclear and fossil fuel) faster than they have been adding renewable sources. Somehow this just sort of, somehow slipped through the cracks. :frowning_face:

NY power grid faces shortfalls as new energy supply lags, operator says
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/ny-power-grid-faces-shortfalls-new-energy-supply-lags-operator-says-2024-06-06/
In the five years since New York set its clean energy targets, the state lost 5,207 megawatts of fossil-fired power supply versus gaining 2,256 megawatts of clean energy sources like wind and solar, the New York Independent System Operator said in its annual reliability report.

And from the 2024 NYISO Power Trends report:

Power Trends Key Messages
Generator deactivations are outpacing new supply additions. Together, these forces are narrowing reliability margins across New York…

…threatening reliability and resilience to the grid…

…projected to become a winter- peaking system in the 2030s, primarily driven by electrification of space heating and transportation…

Such new supply [of dispatchable emmissions-free resources] is not yet available on a commercial scale.

https://www.nyiso.com/documents/20142/2223020/2024-Power-Trends.pdf/31ec9a11-21f2-0b47-677d-f4a498a32978?t=1717677687961

A double-peaking system (winter and summer) puts more strain upon the grid.

DB2

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Crucial knowledge I am surprised most smart people discussing a/c and heat energy use do not know: Although initial installation cost is higher, heat pumps work far far far better when exchanging under the ground than in the air, because the air is where the weather you are trying to escape dominates and the ground is your huge chunk of remembering last summer (for use with a/c) or last winter (for use for heat).

As to dismantling perfectly functional nuclear reactors while hysterically freaking about hydrocarbon energy sources, well, the body politic has currently gone stoopid on both sides of the political spectrum.

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Re: Heat pump

Let’s not forget some heat pumps use a geothermal leg to absorb heat in the ground. Expensive to install due to all the digging but if you have flowing ground water a well might be cheaper.

That is not much in New York.

Less than the cost of a new car.

A heat pump is three quarters of that price. Speaking of which heat pumps will come down in price when the rebates end. The sales people were eating the rebates and not passing them onto the customers. The prices on heat pumps went up by the amount of the rebates.

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This winter peaking is now being seen in Canberra, the capital of Australia.

Energy companies are being urged to step up their planning as Canberra faces a winter with record outages amid skyrocketing demand.

The ACT government’s push to phase out gas appliances and increase electrification has seen demand for electricity rise to record levels, sometimes outstripping supply.

The result has been intermittent blackouts, sometimes coinciding with freezing temperatures.

DB2