Saul
What is your take on its earning? I think the market is overreacting again.
-M
What is your take on NGVC’s earnings? I think the market is overreacting again.
mview,
I was lucky enough to have sold 30% of my already small position earlier this week for cash at $36.60. I had to sell the rest this afternoon at about $24.60.
Here’s why. This is a nice little company but it was selling at a huge PE ratio for a chain of little grocery stores. What kept it up there was a same store sales growth of over 10% each quarter, which was enormous.
This quarter their SSS growth dropped down to the real world at 5.7%. A huge drop. And in the conference call they sounded as if they were blind-sided. They didn’t see it coming. They said the 5% drop from 10.7% to 5.7% was 1% from bad weather, 1% from less television advertising in Jan and Feb, but 3% from increased new competition. They said they expected the new competition effect to go away in six months, but it sounded like wishful thinking to me (and to others I guess). I figured I had better places to put the money.
Note that the price isn’t cheap at at the current price of $23.50! It’s still a PE ratio of 43! That’s how high the PE was before!!!
Best
Saul
1 Like
Saul,
Diligence. Wisdom. Thanks!
KLVanLiew
Saul, you seem to have good timing quite often. It has to be more than lucky. Thanks.
-M
looked at NGVC in February and didn’t like the price. They were selling for a PE of 80x compared to Whole Foods 35x.
There are things to like about them
http://discussion.fool.com/natural-grocers-by-vitamin-cottage-31…
They have a fair amount of floor space that sells vitamins and supplements-- a much higher margin business
Sales per square foot trail WFM slightly but are far ahead of Sprouts
The stores are small and cheaper to build & the sales per SF are an impressive $729. WFM sells $900/SF and Sprouts came in at $450 by rough calculations that include total SF rather than selling SF
At $24 NGVCis more interesting than it was at $36. Would be looking at sales per SF and margins to see which way they are going. Guess sales and same store sales were off. They are still reasonably good. I’ve seen worse.
1 Like
Saul, you seem to have good timing quite often. It has to be more than lucky. Thanks.
M,
In referring to NGVC you are giving me more credit than I deserve. I had no idea the price would fall from $36.50 to $23.15 after earnings (or I would have sold my whole position surely). I was just lucky to have sold a third of it. I sold it to raise cash because NGVC was close to its highs, was unlikely to pop up (being at such a high PE already), and was what I thought of as stable stock as its price had hardly budged all the time I had it, and I needed cash to invest in things that had already taken huge drops for no reason, and others I wanted to add to.
Saul
1 Like
Saul,
As always you are too modest.
I see that you added MF One
With your success why did you think you needed them?
I looked at ONE and decided not to at this time
As always, thank you for posting
Erik
I see that you added MF One. With your success why did you think you needed them?
Eric, Good question. I’m not really sure that I need them, but I figure that if I get one successful idea from them it will pay for my subscription. I also like the availability of the individually managed accounts. I don’t need them now, but I am getting on in years, my wife has no investing skill or interest, so I might need to set up something like that on relatively short notice if I should become ill.
Best
Saul
3 Likes
Saul,
Thank you for your prompt reply, I hope your wife will not have to use the individually managed accounts for many, many years.
I wish you nothing but the best and that we continue to be able to learn from you here on Saul’s Investing Discussions for many years to come.
Thank you, Erik
. I’m not really sure that I need them, but I figure that if I get one successful idea from them it will pay for my subscription. I also like the availability of the individually managed accounts. I don’t need them now, but I am getting on in years, my wife has no investing skill or interest, so I might need to set up something like that on relatively short notice if I should become ill.
Hi Saul et al,
I just got back from vacation and am soooo far behind but I’ll catch up by mid week. Of course, SAUL’S BOARD is the first place I started and the above mirrors my decision to join ONE back in September. Plus I was taking over my portfolio from a large investment bank/advisor and thought whatever I needed, ONE has it. Turns out I was right and now I am trying to figure out what i need and if I can retreat when I resubscribe to all again or less, depending upon the state of my portfolio and performance.
Just sharing.
Mykie
Generally, I started doing my own research due to this board and I get the vast majority of my info from MF, SeekingAlpha (must be more careful here what I absorb) and the company websites that I invest in.
2 Likes