<<<I think Nektar’s still risky, but there’s a bargain here for intrepid investors. This October, look for more trial data with Opdivo plus NKTR-214 in lung cancer, which could send the stock screaming back. Also, NKTR-181 could provide more lift down the road.>>>
From the article you linked to sjo. Also in the article is 181, which is not affected by ASCO. I have no idea how 181 will do commercially, but from a substantive basis approval is very high probability unless the FDA decides they want more information (It has been so long, I forget what they horrible letter is called).
More data to be provided in October, that is also about the time to expect 181 decision from the FDA, plus Lupus drug, another cancer drug, and multiple indications.
NKTR is the textbook biotech company to ru through the clinical biotech syndrome (each and every stage of it). I will have to find that post again. It happens so often.
I may do a deep dive tonight on NKTR. There is much here that can rebounce the shares (but yeah, also risk if an “approval” letter is received by the FDA for 181 (there I remembered it), or if subsequent 214 results turn out to disappoint, Lupus drug results don’t wow, etc. But a lot there to get NKTR easily through the subsequent post Martha Stewart stage.
Tinker
4 Likes
4 years of burn with current cash, which doesn’t include a 1.8B check from BMY which pushes the runway north of a decade
I feel very comfortable initiating the position I initiated today in NKTR. I had missed the run up largely due to how I had been unwinding my ROTH from Vanguard funds to picks.
Biotech’s will never dominate my portfolio, but the chips I have on the table in NKTR feel much less exposed than my bucket of CRSP, EDIT, and NTLA
4 years of burn with current cash, which doesn’t include a 1.8B check from BMY which pushes the runway north of a decade
well…
http://ir.nektar.com/news-releases/news-release-details/nekt…
Cash and investments in marketable securities at March 31, 2018 were $333.8 million as compared to $353.2 million at December 31, 2017. This does not include the $1.0 billion upfront payment and $850.0 million share purchase proceeds received on April 3, 2018, as a result of our new Bristol-Myers Squibb collaboration…
(I count 2.2b approximately)
In the first quarter of 2018, net loss was $95.8 million
So, I count 400m/yr, so, 4 years worth; which does include the 1.8b check, but does NOT include increased expenses for much larger clinical trials. Though it also does not include any checks for 181, which they have already said they are actively seeking to unload. They probably have 2 years worth of cash when you take into account that their R&D expenses will increase ALOT from current rates given all the trials they have going on. Dont be surprised if they trim a few trials when costs start ramping up.
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Given nektar’s valuation, I would assume they should be able to sell shares and raise money if required. I think running out of cash is less of a concern than having a viable products.
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I’m in at $54.
Brace yourself for another 20% drop in the next couple of days.
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I am by no means an expert on price action, and I am probably too upbeat on NKTR (as upbeat as I am now underwater), but I listened to the entire investors presentation (nearly 2 hours), which is much more in depth than the 10 minute ASCO talk. It is available on NKTR website.
Thanks so much to Jack for recommending it. I finally got around to listening this morning. I just listened to the first 40 minutes or so, which was a discussion of the clinical results, before they got into the biological marker stuff, where I zoned out. I left quite reassured. It’s worth the time invested.
Saul
8 Likes
Jon Najarian follows options volume to buy stocks and options. He said in CNBC that there are buyers of the Jan 2019 75s calls today. So seems like sentiment is for a bounce. He just mentioned this on CNBC and the stock popped to the 56.50 area.
Rob
2 Likes
I may do a deep dive tonight on NKTR. There is much here that can rebounce the shares (but yeah, also risk if an “approval” letter is received by the FDA for 181 (there I remembered it), or if subsequent 214 results turn out to disappoint, Lupus drug results don’t wow, etc. But a lot there to get NKTR easily through the subsequent post Martha Stewart stage.
Tinker
Thanks for your perspective. I am in medicine and typically avoid investing in biotechs given the uncertainty in drug development. I decided to take a small long position (a January 2020 call option) in NKTR given the chance of a bounce over that time frame. I didn’t put any money on NKTR that I don’t feel comfortable losing completely but the leveraged position will pay off handsomely if the bounce occurs.
dave
They are echoing it all right. It’s almost a copy and paste from Jack’s post. They are definitely reading this board or at least the highly rec’d posts.
Peace,
Dana
3-day rule! Enter slowly, boys and girls. Save some powder for Wednesday-Thursday.
KC
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Agreed. Never add on the day of the huge news drop, always wait at least until day 2. Sure, maybe it opens $2 higher the next day but you’ll save yourself the additional $15 drop more often than not as we’re seeing today.
No particular offense intended, but I hope these 2 posts didn’t overly impact anyone’s decision-making regarding how to handle the Nektar price drop.
Looks like quite a quick recovery has been underway on Day 2 and Day 3 so far.
-volfan84
long NKTR
12 Likes
No particular offense intended, but I hope these 2 posts didn’t overly impact anyone’s decision-making regarding how to handle the Nektar price drop.
Looks like quite a quick recovery has been underway on Day 2 and Day 3 so far.
And here we are, in the low $54’s again. 4 day rule?
8 Likes
And here we are, in the low $54’s again. 4 day rule?
So obviously, as everyone knows, there really are no hard and fast rules!
I took the opportunity to add the first day of the drop around $52, may add a little more as it’s still a pretty small position for me.
1 Like