Slight quibble, but it is to your point. 25 mile/gal and 50 mile/gal is the same as 1gal/25, or 0.04 gal/mile, and 0.02 gal/mile, respectively. So the efficiency doesn’t double, it is only 50% greater.
But I still disagree. I think hybrids and especially PHEV are good way to reducing emissions right now, especially if the car is regularly plugged in. Most trips are short, and that means most miles would be emission free, or close to it.
Completely agree.
But efficiency measures are a funny thing. Once you hit 50% efficiency you can never double it. But you can double your mpg (or MPGe) over and over again beyond that and still not break any laws of thermodynamics. (not that it would be easy to do)
Mike
Quick question for you. If you get 25 miles per gallon (0.04 gal/mi) and your efficiency doubles, how many miles do you get out of a gallon afterward with the new efficiency?
We do not disagree. This is literally what I said above in one of my comments. Hybrids reduce emissions right now (short-term reward/benefit).
Except that statistics show that they aren’t regularly plugged in. A goodly percentage of them are NEVER plugged in! Apparently some people buy a PHEV for the $7500 tax credit, not for the efficient use of electricity to power them.
https://cars.usnews.com/cars-trucks/features/phev-owners-not-plugging-in
Yep, they would be … if people bothered to plug them in!
Not a particularly strong argument given the Leaf couldn’t compete in performance with ICEs and the Roadster was only for the wealthy. BEVs that can compete with ICEs and hybrids in both price (without incentives) and performance at the mass market level (with the Corollas and Accords) have yet to be introduced.
Only if you ignore the market distortions cause by incentives that come and go and the simple fact that the BEVs sold in Europe and the USA are substantially more expensive than hybrids or ICEs
BEVs approaching the Tesla quality level are all priced as luxury cars outside of China. That’s why 80% of BEVs sold in the US are categorized as in the luxury class. So let’s look at the the adoption rate of BEVs in the luxury car market. https://www.spglobal.com/mobility/en/research-analysis/tesla-fuels-electrification-of-us-luxury-vehicles-segment-shar.html
From 2019 to 2023, Tesla has gone from 10% of the US luxury car market to 29%. In contrast the share of luxury hybrids and PHEVs have remained flat during that time period. In other words, when sticker prices are about the same customers are opting for BEVs over hybrids.
If the BYD line of BEVs were available in America at anything approaching Chinese prices, then you would see your S-curve.
I don’t think it makes sense to consider the Tesla model 3 or model Y as luxury anymore. Because their prices, both starting and average, are lower than the average selling price of all new vehicles sold in the USA. Maybe the high-end 3 and high-end Y might just crack the bottom of the luxury tier, but even so, with the $7500 tax credit that many are receiving, they still end up on the low side.
But…that’s the point. We’re not at the cusp of ICE’s disappearing from the market because they’re still too expensive to get broad consumer acceptance outside the early adopters - at least, in the absence of massive incentives. So we’re not at the point where “no one wants to buy an ICE any more.” We’re not at the point where gas cars are in a death spiral. Because gas cars are still offered at lower prices than BEV’s. Even if it’s true that people would only buy BEV’s instead of ICE’s if BEV’s were cheaper than ICE’s…they’re not cheaper.
So, no - Nissan’s poor financial performance is not due to a market where no one wants to buy an ICE. Plenty of people want to buy ICE’s, because ICE’s still offer good price for value. That might change in the future, but we’re not in the future yet.
Not really. We are not at the cusp of ICEs disappearing BECAUSE IT IS LITERALLY IMPOSSIBLE!
In 2022, there were 283,400,986 registered vehicles in the United States.
Even if we cranked up production of EVs for the the USA by 2, 3, or 5 times what it today. All in one year, it’ll still take 20+ years to replace ICE with EV. And that is without considering al the new ICE that will come into service during the transition. Realistically, it’ll probably be closer to 40 years. We’ve discussed this a number of times already. Big changes such as switching from steam powered ships to diesel powered ships, or switching from horses to engines, or switching from ICE to EV, take a LONG time.
Well, I think both btresist and I meant disappearing from the market (ie. new car sales), not disappearing from the fleet.
EV optimists believe that the new car market will follow an “S-curve” similar to that experienced in Norway. That once EV’s reach a certain level of penetration (often given at 10%), they will very quickly accelerate uptake and become the dominant vehicle mode (~80%+) within a few years. If that were actually true, then we’re looking at the relatively imminent end of significant ICE marketshare, as Europe passed that threshold some time ago and the U.S. is on the cusp (around 9% EV share).
But recent experience in Europe is inconsistent with that model of EV uptake. Again, EV’s passed 10% of new car sales some time ago - but marketshare is currently falling, not accelerating to new highs. So it’s less certain that we’re on the cusp of ICE’s being all-but-driven out of the new car market.
Here is what I posted earlier:
I wasn’t referring to the sexual preferences of the car. BEV and hybrid sales continue to increase, while gas-only car sales are in decline.
Hybrids have reached price parity and availability with straight ICEs. So now hybrids are outselling straight ICEs.
I predict that when BEVs reach price parity with hybrids, no one will want to buy a hybrid.
As Drbob noted above, a lot of analysts are blaming Nissan’s US problem with a lack of hybrid models. If true then there is apparently a significant difference between hybrids and gas-only cars in the eyes of the American consumer and we probably shouldn’t lump those two together. Americans want the benefits of car electrification. If hybrids are the only electrified version affordable, they will buy hybrids even if the electrification is partial.
I’ll be more specific: gas-only cars are in a death spiral.
Hybrids are gas only cars. Plug-in hybrids are gas and/or electrically fueled.
Mike
Gotcha. Conventional and mild hybrids aren’t typically described as EV’s. So when your post distinguished between gas-only and electric vehicles, I assumed that you were including conventional and mild hybrids (which only run on gas) in the “gas-only” and straight ICE column.
Nissan has a deal with Honda to share EV development, etc.
Hybrids are gas only cars with an electric assist, which is what makes them hybrids. They have an extra battery and an electric motor. They get their electricity from the brakes and the gas engine as you know. This partial “electrification” allows for a smaller gas engine and better mileage.
But if you want to call hybrids gas-only that’s fine with me. My point is that customers appear to see a big enough difference between ICEs-w/o-an-electric-motor (see how grammatically unwieldy this becomes) and hybrids, to prefer the latter. They apparently don’t mind using batteries to reduce gas usage.
Of course cars already have a battery (that is used for something else) and a generator. Most people don’t really care, but some do like higher milage. More milage with no change in operating procedures; what’s not to like?
DB2
The slowest death spiral may not be that slow.
Volkswagen is weighing whether to close factories in Germany for the first time in its 87-year history as it moves to deepen cost cuts amid rising competition from China’s electric vehicle makers. https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/02/investing/volkswagen-factory-closure-germany/index.html
If only VW could make a profitable, competitive BEV instead of all those hybrids…
It’s true. I’m sure when execs present these statistics to the works council (which controls most seats on the Board) they will instantly see the logic of… oh wait.
exactly
in other words their lips are moving
They are in a joint venture with Chinese EV maker Xpeng.
I assume something will result from this melding of talents. We just don’t know what or when.
the partnership has mostly been pretty quiet. However, some reporting out of China this week got my ears perked up a bit.
According to reporting, hundreds of Volkswagen staff members have been spending time in Xpeng offices recently. So, what is going on there?
What is Volkswagen getting from Xpeng, and where will that lead? What is Xpeng getting from Volkswagen, and where will that lead?
Welchism isn’t only for USians. The VAG CFO has publicly said they want to move the VW brand “upmarket”, to inflate ATP and GP. In a 180 degree turn from Martin Winterkorn’s goal of making VAG the largest automaker in the world, VAG honchos are now saying they don’t care about unit volume or market share, only in increasing prices and profit margins.
Steve
Amazing to watch a war where one side surrenders before the first shot is fired.
