November Portfolio update and thoughts

Portfolio Update 11/22/2018

Happy Thanksgiving to everyone. It’s been a little over a month since I posted my October portfolio update found here;… . I have found doing these updates is helping me keep better records of my investing thought processes over the past few months. Much like keeping a journal in life when you re-read in the future it helps you remember what your emotions and thoughts were at the time of writing. Hopefully others find this helpful as well.

Current Portfolio as of 11/22/18.
Change since 10/11/18 +1.3%.
Annual return 21.8%.

Stock		Current %	% on 10/11	% Change 	% Change stock price since 10/11	

AYX		13.6		10.3		+3.6			+15.6
CLNE		 0.2		 0.7	  	-0.5			 -4.7
MDB		11.7		10.1		+1.6			+17.9
NTNX		19.3		18.2		+1.1			 +2.0
SQ		16.9		18.4		+1.5			 -9.3
TWLO		17.2		10.3		+6.9			+11.7
WIX		11.4		12.4		-1.0			 -5.7
ZS		 9.7		10.1		-0.4			 -3.1
PSTG		   0		 5.9		-5.9			 +5.6
AMRN		   0		 0.9		-0.9			 -1.8
CASH		   0		 2.7		-2.7				

Shares sold since 10/11 AMRN, PSTG and CLNE. Shares bought AYX, SQ, TWLO and NTNX.

My portfolio essential consists of just seven stocks currently. If they were all equal percentages, they would average close to 14.25%. I have an extremely small amount of CLNE. I sold out of PSTG to use the monies to buy more TWLO. Normally I carry around 12 stocks in portfolio and would group them into high, medium and low conviction categories. I purposely have gone with a smaller amount of stocks which I consider the best opportunities. I have a high convention on all of them, but I do feel NTNX and SQ are best buys currently. When you look at the relative change in stock price over the last few months those two have been the worse performers based on price appreciation.

Company news and my thoughts since last write up.

AYX-Announced Q3 financial results on 11/7. They beat revenue and raised guidance for the year.

Starrob did a c.c. write up here:…

Ethan1234 did a write up here:

Buyandholdisdead did a write up here:

I bought more shares this week during the big sell off. They are up already from buy price. I mentioned previously that I had lightened up AYX do to moving some money around in different accounts and intended to buy more in near future. The downturn this week presented a opportunity. Q3 results were great, company seems to be firing on all levels.

CLNE-Announced Q3 financial results on 11/7. No real growth yet.

TMFVelvetHammer did a write up here:…

I mentioned this is a bit of a story stock. It has yet to start growth even after the Total deal. I think the growth will come in future. However I saw better CURRENT opportunities for my money. I sold recently and used funds to purchase AYX and SQ the past few days. Just trying to be a ruthless allocator of capital.

MDB- New open source license to protect Atlas. Earnings expected ~12/4. There was rumor that Oracle may try and buy them.

SteppenWulf post on new open source license:…

MDB was at a low point when I last posted in October, it has risen in value more than any other stock I own since that time. I do not plan on buying or selling anytime soon.

NTNX- Earning announcement planned for 11/27. Rumor about Oracle trying to potential buy them.

ethan1234 wrote an interesting post here:

I had bought a pile of NTNX between September and October. I added a little bit more. I have an oversized position. I will not be buying any more in near future. I could see the stock going up considerably after earnings next week. I like the hidden growth and I can be patient even if it takes a few quarters to develop. I find the technology a little confusing however as long as they grow revenues and have high customer approval I will be an owner.

SQ-Announced new device called Terminal to replace old credit card machines. Reported earnings on 11/7. Revenue beat and some disappointment by the street with guidance.

TMFCochrane did a write up here:…

Starrob did a nice write up of the SQ presentation at Citi 2018 Financial Technology…

I went with an oversized position in SQ after the Sarah F announcement. I think the reaction was overblown. SQ has dropped in value more than any of my stocks since my last update. This has a larger market cap than any other stock.

TWLO-Acquired Sendgrid. Twilio has a bunch of new products announcements. Then announced earning results on 11/5. They had what most describe as a blow out quarter. This was followed by a large % increase in stock price.

Saul on acquisition of Sendgrid.…

Saul on product announcements.…

Saul’s thoughts after earnings report.…

Stenils c.c. notes…

Maybe the best performing company I own. They seem to have a large runway to keep growing.

WIX-Reported earnings on 11/13. Solid earnings. Important company announcement on 12/11.

My thoughts on c.c.

PaulWBryant also did a write up:

One thing different about WIX that I like is they are an international company giving me a little diversity in the portfolio. They seem to be innovating and continue to grow. I like that they are not as popular as other names I own.

ZS-Report earnings on 12/4. It became a formal SA pick on 11/1.

TMFTomGardner post:…

I believe this company has a chance to become a large market cap one day. I do not understand all the ins and outs of the technology but it seems as if it will be in high demand sooner than later. Everyone points to the extremely high valuation as a possible concern. I really do not know how to value it but I believe if I do not invest now I would regret it later.

On September 9th I had 11.3% of my portfolio in cash. I currently have zero cash holdings. I obviously belief the past few months have presented a good buying opportunity. My portfolio is down around ~17.5% off its 2018 highs which occured in early September. I have undertaken what I would call a major portfolio makeover this year. I have bought and sold more in 2018 than any year that I have been an investor. However I believe my portfolio is settling, I envision less turnover moving forward. Just like everyone else I do not know if we are getting ready to have a recession or when it might occur. My gut feeling is the business environment continues to be strong, interest rates are not crazy high nor crazy low and that we will continue to grow as an economy but at a slow pace than the past year. I also believe many of the companies discussed on this board are creating value for their customers and helping them to save money in their operations. Not saying they are recession proof but they are not as vulnerable to an economic downturn as say a company that sells ski vacations or luxury automobiles.

As always any feedback or insights is appreciated. You can reply to my email. Thanks. Have a great holiday!