Nutanix story

Tamhas, How do you reconcile this with Nutanix’s 94% approval rating that Tinker pointed out? The highest he’s ever seen for any such company, I think he said.

Saul

Saul:

These anecdotal queries are worthless IMO and more often inaccurate…recall all those anecdotal experiences by doctors with ISRG?? Obviously turned out to be no better than a blind squirrel.

We know nothing about tam’s knowledge nor the few people he queried…so the information posted is without value IMO. Keep in mind also that the products are changing in realtime as well with new capabilities and new hypervisors, etc. So an experience in 2013 may not be the same in 2017.

One can surf the net for Nutanix experiences and get many somewhat recent (2016 and later) examples such as these:

https://www.trustradius.com/reviews/nutanix-2017-01-19-03-17…

https://www.reddit.com/r/sysadmin/comments/4g0tug/nutanix/

http://citrixlab.dk/archives/110

https://www.trustradius.com/products/nutanix/reviews

https://channeldisrupt.com/2015/03/22/10-reasons-why-nutanix…

https://www.reddit.com/r/sysadmin/comments/3e2d3r/nutanix_ex…

http://www.joshodgers.com/tag/atlantis-vs-nutanix/

There are many more of course if someone is interested but most seem to be quite favorable…not infallible.

I much prefer more unbiased larger reports and surveys to such anecdotal posts…they probably carry more reality as does the fact that 70% of customers expand their purchases with NTNX…that says a lot IMO.

Best:
Duma

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Saul,

Tamhas responded by saying it depends which tier of the company is satisfied. Upper management because of lower costs may be happy but DB managers may not be.

I think that is not the case and the anecdotal info Tamhas relayed is simply an opinion like you see on an Amazon product rating. I just bought a product w 35 5 star ratings and 3 1 star ratings. The product is awesome so the 1 stars dunno.

One needs to look holistically to determine the truth. The unrefuted fact is Nutanix has grown from 0 to $800million in sales in 6 years. From 0 to ~8000enterprise customers in 6 years. In the age of Arista and Nvidia and GB not just MB internet connections corporations will not install a product that materially slows down access to computing resources. Speed is critical and time a very costly commodity.

As such, NTNX would not have its growth rate if that were the case. I know that I was offered $5 a month to keep my eyes lid T1 line to my home office. Once was a luxury item. It gives 1.5 MB sec. I said nay, tear it out or whatever they needed to do. Speed plus reliability is everything.

So I do not believe the scenario Tamhas has heard except maybe in niche circumstances.

However, Mauser brought up interesting numbers this morning as to how losses have grown faster than revenues. That is something that is a conundrum.

I say this because NTNX is a PR machine. Goldman lent them 70 million ore IPO and Wall Street banks love them. I do not like this sort of hype. Let the business speak for itself, market to your customers BUT STOP MARKETING TO INVESTORS!

Burt, on the other hand thinks NTNX is making fine progress to profitability. I’ll let his two write ups or three may speak for themselves.

The one thing I conclude is that Nutanix did not grow so fast because of an inherently flawed product. On the other hand it also has not been able to monetize its growth not its tremendous customer satisfaction rating.

To put it in perspective ANET scores 16 on the ANET Promoter score. That is considered excellent vs in the 90s for NTNX. Yet we know. ANET is pummeling entrenched competition and doing so while printing cash.

To me it is a conundrum. I think what is probably happening is that there may be some color of truth to what Tamhas heard and NTNX product works for certain aspects of the enterprise data center, but not for all aspects. Thus limiting its utility in contrast to the NTNX Story.

Also is true though, is NTNX is rewriting its story and (1)moving to an all software model (and this change is made solely to impress investors because as a business decision it was basically more software than ANET is = does not materially change anything but dress up the numbers) and (2) NTNX is making it clear that its future is in new products that are aspirational and visionary and we have no way to understand how they are being adopted at this point.

Thus NTNX is a flyer not suitable for me, it is a business that is not everything its narrative will have us believe(eg it’s cloud integration product is primarily just a better method of backing up and restoring data for emergencies but it has a pretty name and we are told other applications will be forthcoming some day but none specifically mentioned) it yet it’s sales growth is real so there’s is meat there as well.

I prefer companies that don’t “make it up with volume”in regard to cash printing ability. There needs to be some leverage. SHOP has leverage.

But my conundrum of thoughts on Nutanix as to how a company w a net promoter score that high cannot sell its product for enough money to monetize this delightful product. That does not make sense to me unless it does not offer enough value despite the delight it brings. Rut-ro.

Others can run the numbers like Mauser did.

Tinker

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Tinker and Mauser:

I believe their financial situation has improved over the past few years…not deteriorated.

Recall there was some Ram increase issues that weighed in on margins earlier…that goes away as they transition toward a near pure software and SaaS model…enormous improvement in margins in that latter scenario…so IMO from an investor perspective, one has to be able to accept that this is the investment opportunity (transition to software and away from hardware)…Mauser’s concerns and yours would be negated in that eventuality.

If you doubt that will occur, then best to stay on the sidelines…but one can track the progress and it has already trended in the right direction and there is no doubt the management has the conviction to be transformative…as you know Tinker, we uncovered this new strategy many months ago so it wasn’t a surprise.

Margins were already improved last quarter and operating expenses lower than expected. It does spend 23% of revenue on R&D but why not? They had been hiring up sales staff in prior quarters so again, nothing too concerning. They are saying they will likely have 80% gross margins by 2019.

The issue you and Mauser raise then largely is addressed by this transition to software and SaaS…if you doubt their ability to transform, stay away…otherwise, still seems like we have not seen the best of NTNX as yet.

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Duma,

As I said, if I wanted to increase the number of stocks I hold simply for the sake of diversification I would include Nutanix in that portfolio. All my analysis is largely based in comparison as to what I currently hold.

This said, It really is a conundrum. More likely than not you will be correct. I see a few things that give me pause, but those are just risk factors. Things I cannot readily explain.

If Nutanix were a business to consumer company I would be cheering them on. It is just unusual for a B2B company. I also do not like their marketing to investors. But their success is in the elite category going from nothing to nearly a billion in 6 years. That may be record for a software company. I don’t have the numbers for that, but it is clearly elite.

Tinker

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Thanks Duma and Tinker for your answers to my questions. I do really like Nutanix, for all the reasons discussed.

Saul

Despite 45 posts so far in this thread, I haven’t seen anyone address:

  • rapidly slowing growth - last 5 quarters:
    90.1%
    77.4%
    67.2%
    61.7%
    46.2%

Worsening Gross margin - 61.9% Oct17 vs 65.4% Oct16 (or 60.5% and 63.0% GAAP)

With more software sales, and less hardware, ins’t the gross margin suppose to be better? http://discussion.fool.com/hi-bear-i-can39t-remember-exactly-but…

Nutanix has really slowed the growth in OpEx the last couple quarters – that’s really good. But if sales are slowing quickly too, how will revenue ever catch up with spending? I’m obviously not saying 46% growth is bad, but where she stops, nobody knows?

Bear

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So, a little background.

Yes, this is anecdotal evidence. It was offered to provide some “color” or background to what one gets from rating schemes. At the very most it was intended to offer a bit of caution that rosy stories today might cover over a weakness that would emerge in time, but there are certainly plenty of examples of products like this which make management very happy, but make the people who actually have to deal with making it work unhappy.

One of the classic examples of this is network attached storage which management likes for its economy. For storing word processing documents and spreadsheets it works fine. If it is of high quality, provided with enough write cache, and properly tuned it can work to support large databases in production with reasonable transaction volumes. But, have a crash and need to restore from backup and the write cache is rapidly filled and the write speed becomes turtle-like and it can take a long time to complete the restore. A knowledgeable DBA could have told management in advance that this would happen, but often management ends up blaming the DBA for the slow recovery. That’s just the way it works.

And, there is no need for disputes on other boards to cast a pall over information here. While the information is anecdotal, it is hardly from sources that compare to Amazon reviews. I personally have a world wide reputation in the Progress community and the bulk of the information I presented comes from the premier consultant DBA company in the Progress community who, quite literally, consult all over the world … Russia, Baltics, Europe, Far East, Australia, and North and South America … so there is a lot of hands on experience behind the remarks.

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“Highest ever”
"Unprecedented "

long ago I heard the same words long ago about little companies called Intel and Microsoft

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Amazon ratings- I once ran across a bad consumer review of a vaporizer, the customer complaint that it did not put out enough water vapor because the tank only lasted 12 hours. Don’t know where he thought the water was going…

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Nicccolo Machiavelli
All courses of action are risky, so prudence is not in avoiding danger (it’s impossible), but calculating risk and acting decisively. Make mistakes of ambition and not mistakes of sloth. Develop the strength to do bold things, not the strength to suffer.

Nicccolo Machiavelli

Hope clouds observation.

Reverend Mother Mohiam iin Dune

Beginnings are dangerous things. Transitions even more so

mauser 96- probably cribbed from somebody else ,but I can not remember who. Dune?

the more I ponder on it the more it seems like I can find a better stock. At least one I can be more comfortable with. Others may disagree, we could both be right. Or we could both be wrong…
What matters is what you buy not what you didn’t buy. Because the latter always includes stocks that beat your performance

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The issue you and Mauser raise then largely is addressed by this transition to software and SaaS…

What SaaS products you are referring to?

I am not aware of Nutanix having a SaaS product or any recurring revenue as you see w most software companies. They get paid one time per server.

It may well be that they will redesign their entire business model. But if they do so that alienates their partners like DELL who just wants to sell servers and changes the entire product composition for their clients. This would be a huge risk.

Again, this move to software only is a very recent thing. Two quarters ago they aspired to be 33% software only as a long term goal. Now they are claiming this is their “Netflix” moment and they can simply sell through third parties, one of which, Dell, which is their largest reseller also owns VMWare.

Worth looking into more details than this software only model.

In the end Nutanix sold its servers at 0 to 10% gross margins and thus they acted as wrappers for the software. You could back out the hardware as a neutral (they get back exactly at zero margin what it cost to produce the server - and thus they were already a software only company but could push their own server wrappers to push their software - now they have to sell software in another manner).

We shall see how it works out.

Tinker

It may well be that they will redesign their entire business model.

Let us be clear, Nutanix may provide software for data center (similar to VMWare) but it is by no stretch of imagination a SaaS company. It is not like you wake up one day and decide you want to be a SaaS company and decide which application you are going to specialize. That is not how it works.

When the definitions are used so loosely, it makes wonder about the understanding of the company or its products, and how such analysis are taken as thoughtful analysis.

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Let us be clear, Nutanix may provide software for data center (similar to VMWare) but it is by no stretch of imagination a SaaS company. It is not like you wake up one day and decide you want to be a SaaS company and decide which application you are going to specialize. That is not how it works.

King:

You are a little irritable tonight??

Just a few minutes ago, you asked this:

What SaaS products you are referring to?

Then you make the blanket statement above. And prior to that, you have a rather aggressive conversation with Tinker and try to be coy about a new threat to NTNX…if you know something then just say it!

The whole benefit of these boards is to “crowdsource” about stocks and investments…you are coming across as jousting instead IMO…perhaps unintended and if so, please excuse my misunderstanding of your intentions.

That said, let me simply address your question regarding the SaaS with their last earnings call here. You can see what they are referring to with the first 2 presenters especially as regards to what they are transitioning to and why:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4128869-nutanixs-ntnx-ceo-d…

These changes also prepare us well as we embrace the subscription model next year with our Xi, spelled Xi Cloud services. The Company that is obsessed with an iPhone-like motive is ready to institutionalize the pure software version of its operating system, and all that without compromising customer experience and without being negligent about the boundary at which hardware and software meet.

Going forward over time, Nutanix will emerge exactly what it is, an enterprise cloud operating systems company. In conjunction with this, investor should expect the following to occur over the next few years. First, we will begin the migration away from pass-through hardware related revenue. Beginning last quarter, we started the gradual migration related from recognizing pass-through revenue, attributed to the hardware portion of our business.

The next modification in our business you should expect will be a gradual shift to writable Software-as-a-Service revenue. Once our Xi Cloud service offerings take hold starting with services such as disaster recovery, we expect to see the emergence of some writable recognized Software-as-a-Service revenue.

And lastly overtime, we will start to position the Company for increasing writable Software-as-a-Subscription revenue. Although not immediate and not yet quantifiable with the introduction of both our Xi Cloud services and Nutanix Calm, we believe we have the option to convert some of our perpetual and terms based software streams into writable recognized subscription software.

Now I get that you are skeptical…not every investment is for everyone…no problem. This is not a test of wills but if you have something to say, then just say it and try to resist the “gotcha” moments because that defeats the whole crowdsourcing phenomenon that remains such a powerful tool to investigate stocks and the companies behind them.

Best:
Duma

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Despite 45 posts so far in this thread, I haven’t seen anyone address:

- rapidly slowing growth - last 5 quarters:

Hey Bear:

Thanks for that post and keeping it real with numbers!

This has been addressed on the NPI, sorry sometimes the boards run together and not sure what was said on each.

The problem with the revenue analysis, is that a large portion of their previous revenue was inclusive of “passthrough” hardware. As they transition away from hardware, the challenge comparing revenues will be:

  1. Much less hardware revenue will be including in future quarters hopefully down to zero.
  2. Manner/timing in which software revenue is recorded

Both may cause the top line revenue analysis to be a bit challenging to compare in the future because they won’t be apples to apples comparisons:

On an apples to apples basis, growth in revenues and bookings as well was greater than reported. The CFO said that Nutanix eliminated more than 9% of the revenues attributable to pass-through hardware. While the dollar amount was not quantified further than that, it would appear that the company eliminated about 3% of the revenue it would otherwise have reported, or about $8 million. Real growth for this company last quarter was apparently over 50%.

Above quote from most recent Bert article.

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You are a little irritable tonight??

Little??? Don’t undersell me. Short fuse on powder keg, ready to go… always looking for a “gotcha” moment…

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What matters is what you buy not what you didn’t buy. Because the latter always includes stocks that beat your performance

What a great quote, Mauser. Thanks.
Saul

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Despite 45 posts so far in this thread, I haven’t seen anyone address:

- rapidly slowing growth - last 5 quarters:
90.1%
77.4%
67.2%
61.7%
46.2%

Worsening Gross margin - 61.9% Oct17 vs 65.4% Oct16 (or 60.5% and 63.0% GAAP)

Nutanix is guiding $282.5M in revenues which would be 42% growth. Guidance assumes $12M of hardware sales taken out so revenues would be $295M or 48% growth which seems a more valid comparison. If growth holds steady, I believe we would be happy investors if leverage in the model takes place.

Your margin question gets directly to Tinker’s question of pricing power which is largely unanswered at this point and a risk. Going forward, it will be a bit difficult to compare margins with the software centric move. Margin percentages are going to naturally increase as the hardware revenue goes down. A better yardstick may be to look at profit growth compared to revenue growth to see if leverage is kicking in.

What do you think, Bear?
Good questions by the way.

A.J.

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There is an understandable confusion here. Generally, one thinks of the SaaS model as selling application software on a subscription basis rather than a one time license basis (plus, annual maintenance in most cases). This is potentially attractive to both parties since it makes it very simple for the licensing company to grow and the software company receives an on-going revenue stream.

One doesn’t usually think of operating type software in this license model, but in fact any software can be sold on a subscription basis. The possible attraction I see with a company like Nutanix is that the number of machines and devices governed may be significantly dynamic and so the subscription basis would provide the same natural fluidity for changing configurations and user bases as it does for application software.

Yeah,

And it kept me out of Yahoo too.

Still, if you can’t explain it, there is a risk.

I am long NTNX, but it is creeping up my list to sell next time I need cash.

Don’t need cash now.

Cheers
Qazulight