$NVDA reported earnings today. I have not yet read the transcripts, but there are some very impressive numbers in the Press Release.
- Revenue was $44.1B, 12% QoQ and 69% YoY. But this excludes the impact of $2.5B from H20. If we add it back, then revenue would have been $46.6B, 18.4% QoQ and 79% YoY. A trend of acceleration from last quarter.
- Q2 revenue guidance was $45B, but had excluded $8B impact from H20! So if H20 is not banned and Nvidia just delivers a moderate beat on guidance, Q2 revenue growth could accelerate to above 80% YoY.
With the tail winds from Middle East markets, I believe Nvidia can still grow substantially in the next few years, even from the current size.
Reference Links:
Quarterly Revenue Trend:
Long NVDA, CRWV, NBIS
Cheers,
Luffy
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Great points, this was also something which I was calculating in my mind while I was listening the call. Another thought I had, Jensen’s comments on the China export controls stood out as unusually direct. Perhaps even confrontational by his standards. His core argument is spot-on: “The question is whether one of the world’s largest AI markets will run on American platforms. Shielding Chinese chipmakers from US competition only strengthens them abroad and weakens America’s position.”
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I concur on all this. As I was listening to the call, my overall impression was not one of a company firing on all cylinders, rather the mood was kind of glum. Huang is generally very circumspect regarding politics, but in this call he spent quite a bit of his airtime talking about the trade policy vis-a-vis China, and how the export controls are not helping anyone.
The most recent BG^2 pod had a section on this, so I think nvidia and others have been working very hard to get the attention of the trump administration from as many angles as possible. On the pod they noted that the revenue loss to the u.s. (in the form of taxes) is expected to be quite substantial – tens of billions, and the end result is the promotion of a formidable competitor.
If you add up the recent emergence of sovereign AI demand (we started hearing about this about 12 months ago) together with the lost, at least for the moment, Chinese market, it gives a very striking picture of the scale of this AI buildout. Nvidia looks very very well placed.
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